Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #epidemics
Most recents (17)
#Contact_tracing can be a practical and effective way of containing disease spread. But did you know it's even more effective when social groups are involved?
Check out our* new paper:
arxiv.org/abs/2304.10405
* @leahakeating @gleesonj @DavidJPOS @bolozna
1/6
Check out our* new paper:
arxiv.org/abs/2304.10405
* @leahakeating @gleesonj @DavidJPOS @bolozna
1/6
Contact tracing not only cuts direct infection paths but can also prevent indirect spreading routes in groups. We illustrate how it can be more efficient than what would be predicted by models that assume a fully mixed population or a locally tree-like network structure.
2/6
2/6
Our results show that the outbreak size shrinks as clique size, c, grows, and this is amplified by higher contact tracing success probability α, despite fixed transmission probability p.
#epidemiology #networks #Covid
3/6
#epidemiology #networks #Covid
3/6
LIVE now: the #NSABB is meeting to discuss the safety of work on pathogens: biosecurity, gain-of-function, dual-use research, counter-measures & vaccine R&D. W/some #Republicans claiming #SARSCoV2 arose from NIH-sponsored GOF work, this is a hot potato.
videocast.nih.gov/livew.asp?live…
videocast.nih.gov/livew.asp?live…
Continueing
Continued
🧵 "#Criticality: A Balance Between #Robustness and #Adaptability"
Today's SFI Seminar by @cgershen @cgg_mx:
Today's SFI Seminar by @cgershen @cgg_mx:
Regarding systems at the #EdgeOfChaos
Identifying #PhaseTransition dynamics
Citing @WagnerEvolution on #Robustness
Contrasting it with #Chaos (fragile, hard to predict, etc.)
And then #Criticality, somewhere in the middle...
Identifying #PhaseTransition dynamics
Citing @WagnerEvolution on #Robustness
Contrasting it with #Chaos (fragile, hard to predict, etc.)
And then #Criticality, somewhere in the middle...
Someone recently asked me why I, conducting a project on #epidemics, write a paper on #mantras in #Ayurveda. Here is the reason: Early South Asian medical compilations discuss epidemics and how to treat them. They suggest various countermeasures …
Besides more "medical" remedies they suggest also truthfulness, compassion, #mantras, offerings, fasting, atonement, veneration of gods, certain rituals etc. – measures belonging to the class of remedies "depending on the supernatural" (daivavyapāśraya).
In Ayurveda, remedies are usually differentiated into those "depending on logical principles" (yuktivyapāśraya) and those "depending on the supernatural". The former help to balance the bodily humors, the latter shall primarily check all kinds of exogenous harm.
This is a big deal. #China watchers, investors & policy/decision makers, pay attention: #CCP has stopped issuing ordinary #passports & other entry & exit documents if u don't have "essential or emergent reasons". This means the #CCP is closing its doors again.
The reason cited in this report is to "protect people's health, life safety, and effectively prevent the importation of foreign #epidemics ( #CCP Virus, #COVID19 "
society.people.com.cn/n1/2021/0730/c…
society.people.com.cn/n1/2021/0730/c…
This could be the real reason: The great exodus from China: Under Xi Jinping, asylum seekers number shoots up over 600,000
wionews.com/world/the-grea…
wionews.com/world/the-grea…
1/ I read multiple books at a time, and let me tell you, some stark differences between @StatutoryVapeBk & @BarryMeier "Pain Killer: An Empire of Deceit and the Origin of America's Opioid Epidemic"
2/ For example, "On an average day in 2016, 175 people died from an overdose, a rate of seven fatalities pan hour."
Verus:
3/ "At the time this book was published, the CDC reported that there were 64 deaths confirmed in 27 states and the District of Columbia due to vaping-related illnesses."
3/ "At the time this book was published, the CDC reported that there were 64 deaths confirmed in 27 states and the District of Columbia due to vaping-related illnesses."
New paper: Tooling-up for infectious disease transmission modelling. The Intro to the #Epidemics special issue on Computational Methods for Modelling an Infectious Disease (COMMAND) doi-org.ez.lshtm.ac.uk/10.1016/j.epid… @GrahamMedley @EleanorMRees @N_R_Waterlow @cmmid_lshtm In the series:
1. Choices and trade-offs in inference with infectious disease models by @sbfnk and A King doi.org/10.1016/j.epid… #IDmodelling #modelchoice
2. Desirable BUGS in models of infectious diseases by @kathmoreilly @drrachellowe and others doi.org/10.1016/j.epid… #JAGS #graphs
#IAAE Webinar Series happening in less than an hour.
This week Hashem Pesaran @USCDornsife & @TrinCollCam will present "Matching Theory and Evidence on #Covid19 using a Stochastic Model of #Epidemics on #Networks", joint with Cynthia Yang @floridastate: ucr.zoom.us/webinar/regist…
This week Hashem Pesaran @USCDornsife & @TrinCollCam will present "Matching Theory and Evidence on #Covid19 using a Stochastic Model of #Epidemics on #Networks", joint with Cynthia Yang @floridastate: ucr.zoom.us/webinar/regist…
One week makes a huge difference!! #covid19
Looking forward to reading the paper, in the meantime Hashem Pesaran concludes:
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 7/14/2020-2
greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/07/14/dai…
Tangram Heightmapper
tangrams.github.io/heightmapper/
#maps #topological
greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/07/14/dai…
Tangram Heightmapper
tangrams.github.io/heightmapper/
#maps #topological
The Tricky Math of COVID-19 Herd Immunity | Quanta Magazine
quantamagazine.org/the-tricky-mat…
#immunity
quantamagazine.org/the-tricky-mat…
#immunity
The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks | PNAS
pnas.org/content/early/…
#control #coronavirus #transmission
pnas.org/content/early/…
#control #coronavirus #transmission
On Mar 24, we had ~800 #COVID deaths in the US. On Apr 4, when the count was at ~8,000, I predicted ~20,000 deaths by Easter Sunday, Apr 12.
My prediction was spot on. Current tally is 20,600.
1/
My prediction was spot on. Current tally is 20,600.
1/
In this PEDAGOGICAL thread, I will explain how I came up with this number. This thread is not meant for systems experts.
I became interested in, and very concerned about, the spread of #coronavirus since January 2020, when I saw the initial datasets from #Wuhan.
2/
I became interested in, and very concerned about, the spread of #coronavirus since January 2020, when I saw the initial datasets from #Wuhan.
2/
I am an applied mathematician, and I specialize in modeling dynamic systems, besides other things. I am not an epidemiologist, but the spread of infectious diseases are governed by the same mathematical rules that govern dynamical systems in general.
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3/
We need some #GoodNews. Yes, this is a study in mice but this is so far the first peer-reviewed #coronavirus #vaccine study with promising results in @EBioMedicine published by @TheLancet from @PittTweet @UPMCnews @PittHealthSci vaccinologists
When tested in mice, the #vaccine, delivered through a fingertip-sized patch, produces #antibodies specific to #SARSCoV2 #virus. Researchers were able to act quickly because they already laid the groundwork during earlier #coronavirus #epidemics.
Compared to the experimental #mRNA #vaccine that entered clinical trials, this one - called #PittCoVacc, short for #Pittsburgh #Coronavirus Vaccine - follows a more established approach, using lab-made pieces of viral protein to build immunity (same way current #flu shots work)
"The Lancet‘s fraudulent concealment of genetics, and its own conflicting interests, while condemning #coronavirus conspiracy theorists, gives the appearance of “crisis capitalism,” and complicity in the COVID-19-SARS/HIV-1 #Wuhan ‘Event 201‘ biocrime."
The 'Scientific' arguments going on behind the scenes on #Covid_19 should be a wake-up call to the 'TRUE' dangers the world is being exposed to! 'BOTH' sides of the argument are labelling the other 'Conspiracy Theorists'. Only one of them can be!
The Lancet writes that "Conspiracy theories do nothing but create fear, rumours, and prejudice...." #Covid_19
Lessons from past #coronavirus & #influenza #epidemics suggest that #viral #infections can trigger acute coronary syndromes, arrhythmias, exacerbation of heart failure owing to a combination of a significant systemic inflammatory response plus localized vascular inflammation.
#COVID19 may either induce new cardiac pathologies &/or exacerbate underlying cardiovascular diseases. A large proportion of patients have underlying cardiovascular disease &/or cardiac risk factors. Factors associated with mortality include male sex, advanced age, comorbidities.
I am pretty sure most of my followers don’t buy into the conspiracy theory that #COVID-19 is a #bioweapon created by the United States (or anyone else), but for anyone who does, here’s a quick history lesson. (1/7)
The US eliminated its offensive #biowarfare program in 1969. President Nixon said at the time, “Biological weapons have massive, unpredictable, and potentially uncontrollable consequences. They may produce global #epidemics and impair the health of future generations.” (2/7)
America’s renunciation of its BW program was the first time that a major power unilaterally abandoned an entire category of WMD. For more on Nixon’s decision, @WMDCenter has a great case study by the late Jonathan Tucker, available online: wmdcenter.ndu.edu/Portals/97/Doc…. (3/7)
Something a lot of people may not know about me is I am really, really into genealogy. So, last week I was tracing one branch of the family and I noticed something that seemed odd. 1/15 #cdnhealth #epidemics #medicine #History
Adult siblings and cousins were losing family members over a certain time period. One fellow lost his wife and their three children over the winter of 1848/49. Then another in this family lost two children, same time frame. 2/15
Now, when you see the deaths of a mother and infant, you are liable to assume it was complications of childbirth. Infant and maternal mortality rates were much higher back then. But then you see the 3 y/o, 5 y/o, and 7 y/o also died.... It had to be something else. 3/15
1. Just wanted to mention something about the coronavirus #COVID19 situation, for anyone unfamiliar with how federal/state governments, hospitals, first responders, school systems, etc. prepare for specific types of emergencies.
You may already know this, but just in case...
You may already know this, but just in case...
2. In a situation like this, it's good advice to say "don't freak out". That's not to say people shouldn't worry about #COVID19 at all. The whole point of emergency preparedness is to "prepare". Regardless of what 45* says, remember that fed & state governments ARE preparing.
3. Federal, state, and local governments, as well as hospitals and first responders, ALREADY have "standard operating procedures" in the event of specific types of emergency scenarios. Just like they have plans for natural disasters, they have an "#epidemic preparedness" plans.
4. Holocaust in Yemen caused by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Senegal, Sudan, Somalia, Qatar, Morocco, US, France, UK, Canada, Australia,Germany
#Yemen #CrimesAgainstHumanity #WarCrime #Holocaust #YemenCantWait #YemenHolocaust #WorldHypocrisy
#Yemen #CrimesAgainstHumanity #WarCrime #Holocaust #YemenCantWait #YemenHolocaust #WorldHypocrisy
By @JuliaWraith
Yemeni Children Sends a Message to the World, in Funeral of Victims of the US-Saudi Massacre, Sana’a
english.almasirah.net/details.php?es…
Yemeni Children Sends a Message to the World, in Funeral of Victims of the US-Saudi Massacre, Sana’a
english.almasirah.net/details.php?es…
By @JuliaWraith
O silent🌍.Why are you dumb? Can’t you speak or you don’t want to speak?Why are you blind? Are you unable to see or you don’t want to see?As for the🇺🇳we are the children of🇾🇪we have sanctify our blood not to appeal an institution that calls
O silent🌍.Why are you dumb? Can’t you speak or you don’t want to speak?Why are you blind? Are you unable to see or you don’t want to see?As for the🇺🇳we are the children of🇾🇪we have sanctify our blood not to appeal an institution that calls
