Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #es_f

Most recents (24)

<market maker / MM>

'To understand the [market makers'] practices, the investor must learn to think of specialists as merchants who want to sell an inventory of stock at retail price levels.' richard ney.
1) market makers (MMs) seek to accumulate at low, or wholesale, prices 💴💶💷

2) during accumulation phase, MMs continually float price up + back down as they build position

3) MMs employ media + news to cause modest rises / falls in price

goal: shake out fearful sellers
4) MMs then move market upward slowly, building momentum & distributing their position along the way

goal: create greedy sentiment to get more buyers to hop in 👺

retail + public investors climb on board, MM sells position along the way

Read 3 tweets
2) leading indicator #2

Money supply (M1, M2 & MZM) velocity

3) leading indicator #3

Total Market Cap / GDP ratio > 152%
higher than 2000 tech bubble

Read 18 tweets
AAII Sentiment survey update:

(Bullish - Bearish) spread just reached a cycle low last week.

See the contrarian nature of this indicator.

Dec, Jan, Feb = Green = bullish > bearish
Mar, Apr, May = Red = bearish > bullish Image
AAII sentiment survey chart from 2010 to 2020:


1 notice all the "bull-bear spread lows" in the past?
(huge pessimism)

2 just before a major up-trend..

3. this time is different? (not good) 🤔🧐 Image
Don't panic. bears

I trust more on what they DO, not what they SAY

what they do? CNN fear & Greed index from the trading
what they say? AAII survey

When in conflict, trust

1 CNN fear & greed index
2 & VX furures term structure
3 Equity Put/Call ratio
4 Volume divergence Image
Read 27 tweets
Million $ strategy for free👌

The "bear trap" & "bull trap" concept using the volume profile POC is very useful in intra-day trading also

Especially in the futures where the buyer & sellers are zero-sum game, for every long there is a short

We had two-days in a row in #ES
Million $ strategy for free:

If you can understand the below chart and practice everyday with position sizing & risk mgmt, you will be a successful day traders:

1 April 21 - perfect Bull Trap set up
2 April 22 - perfect Bear trap set up

study it and comprehend

very important
Below thread covered some basics

The above "bear & bull trap" set-up is part of the 5-dimensional day trading system mentioned below

Never published anywhere, now you have it for free

Supply & demand balances at major sup/res zone is KEY to any trading

Read 5 tweets
1) Portfolio summary - March-end


Short $EWZ

Return since 1. 1. '19 (when I began posting here) -

Portfolio +40.89%
$ACWI (-)2.33%
$SPX +3.10%
2) YTD return -

Portfolio +24.96%
$ACWI (-)21.27%
$SPX (-)20.00%

S. America exposure hedged

Portfolio activity -

New positions - $ADYYF $DDOG $XP
Closed positions - $BZUN $LK $SPCE

Note - I made an innocent mistake in 1st tweet above by excluding $XP and including $SPCE
3) Commentary -

March was an epic month for the financial markets and due to the global spread of COVID-19, we saw violent reactions in bonds, commodities and stocks.

Global equities fell sharply and there was nowhere to hide. During the month, equity futures were limit...
Read 13 tweets
Paese congelato da ieri
delta rispetto al Picco di Congestione del Traffico mattutino superiore al 50% sia a Milano che a Roma
Worst Case ad oggi
-32mld di PIL2020
Deficit/PIL =
-2.82% con +10mld deficit [+7mldUsc vs -3mldEnt]
-3,78% con Entrate ridotte di 12mld vs 2019
AD OGGI ImageImageImageImage
Ad oggi il maggior indebitamento in qualunque ipotesi con una contrazione così importante del PIL, porterebbe il rapporto debito/PIL italiano vicino al 140%...facendo scattare tutti gli alert di ristrutturazione del debito pubblico...sia Ex-Ante [#MES2] che EX-Post [MES attuale] Image
ma 30mld è solo quello che abbiamo perso fino a questo momento, allarghiamo l'orizzonte almeno fino al 03 aprile ipotesi a spanne su tutto il paese...
più tutto il tempo per tornare a regime Image
Read 801 tweets
#ES_F with a p-shaped volume profile. Broke below the POC - bearish. TPO based kind of p-shaped. The market opened above value but dropped through the whole value. Let's see which trade scenario will evolve in the next hours.
#ES_F dropped into the weekly developing value in the early overnight session. Slope is still to the upside and we trade above the value close area. DVWAP and DVAL possible supportive levels.
#ES_F opened above daily VWAP value but dropped through the whole value here as well. Trade below value around the DVAL. DVWAP and DVAH possible areas of resistance. Also, we could see a repair of this drop.
Read 4 tweets
Notes about the open

The open locations are relative to the prior day
It’s a quick easy clue to what should occur at the open

There are only 3 locations where price can open

1 Open within value
2 Open within range but outside value
3 Open outside range


#es_f $spx $spy
An open within value signals that price wants to continue balance. The references here are prior day’s:

2 Value Area
3 Range Hi/Lo

Price will accept these references and trade within or it will reject them and find a new fair value price


#es_f $spx $spy
An Open within range but outside value

Signals price is attempting a b/o of the prior days value area

It's an imbalance and needs aggressive buyers/sellers to continue the push

Market must accept or reject
If rejected then VA is target Acceptance targets prior range extreme
Read 6 tweets
#ES_F opened below value and testing VAL close level and LVN. Previous profile p-shaped. VPOC and POC area probably to be tested. Unsecured high on the previous profile and this day's profile currently.
Pullback from LVN area. Day unsecured high still in place.
Weekly volume view on the current distributions. Extremes are possible areas of support at resistnace.
Read 6 tweets
REMOVE all emotion. Best tip there is. Emotions like FEAR and DOUBT cloud judgement. Clouded judgement leads to poor choices. Poor choices lead to LOSSES.

My tip: If you THINK it's a good time to enter a trade... DON'T

Set EXPECTATIONS of what should happen 1ST
#es_f $spx $spy
If you're expectations are wrong, job #1 is to figure out why. Do this, and over time your expectations will get better. Trading is not easy and day trading is even harder.

Gain a coherent understanding of how an auction works.

What is the role of the marketplace?
The role of the market is to facilitate 2 way trade. Wild swings up and down until 2WT is found. We see this in all time frames. 1/10 saw wild swings until it found 2WT at 80. But the negotiating progress wasn't finished. It quickly found that 80 was unfair to buyers in that TF
Read 6 tweets
...@bancaditalia CODADEPAJA
I prestiti TLTRO di #PopBari dal bilancio 2015..."anche a nome delle nuove controllate" chiesti ulteriori 516 milioni in 3 mesi...
Evento in stile
#ECB/@bancaditalia 's Ponzi Scheme... 👏👏
Read 317 tweets
1/ Would you like to know how an aspiring furu and a rogue trader loses real money for his clients while publicly claiming to be profitable every day? I spent $30k to find out and sharing with you here for free. Meet @odelys__ 👇

#DAX #FDAX #DAX30 #ES_F #emini
@odelys__ 2/… Remember his daily “Hope you participated…”? Well, I did participate. All of the screenshots are of my own personal account that @odelys__ has been trading since mid-August 2019 and ran into the ground by the end of October.
3/… It started as a modest $63k account that promptly hit the turbulence, dipping 12%. At the time @odelys__ offered assurances that this was absolutely not the norm. And the man sounded passionate about client satisfaction.
Read 18 tweets
l'impulso dalla creazione di quasi 3Trilioni di $ di riserve non spinge in maniera coerente e costante l'elargizione di nuovo credito da parte delle banche US👉NON C'E' DOMANDA
la moneta creata non "gira" come potrebbe/dovrebbe e lo vedi su
-Linea Nera:Inflazione attesa 5y FWD
...perché accade tutto questo?
perché da oltre 10 anno l'unico intento delle CBs è quello di salvaguardare il sistema finanziario come l'abbiamo sempre "conosciuto" che è morto esattamente 11 anni fa...NON SIAMO MAI USCITI DALLA GFC 2008/09 e non usciremo mai in questo modo
...ed oggi vedremo quanto @potus è ricattabile...ha in mano il jolly per affondare EZ e lo DEVE giocare adesso...👽…
Read 210 tweets
Looks like it will take the #es_f to get under 2965 to weaken or above 3000 to expand higher. Looking forward to breaking out of this range! The price action will tell us!
We stayed long from yesterday OR. Stops in for a scratch. Targets much higher 3025-30.
Lol. Great way to put it. Money for nothing drugs gives indices more upside.
Read 4 tweets
Have you ever experienced long winning streaks followed by a short losing streak that wipes your winning streak out? Do you trade multiple markets? Equities? Futures? One thing I found in my own journey is this, trading is a deep relationship between yourself and the market
You trade. I trade the #es_f, and only the #es_f most successful traders I know only trade a single market. For me personally, I look at the market the same as marriage or dating. You have to have a intimate relationship with both. You have to be able to tell your partner is
Having a off day, not feeling well, what makes the happy, sad, what gets them excited, when to hug, laugh, cry, where to touch, rub, kiss. For me I approach the market exactly the same way. I don’t look at other markets with lust or envy. I have a intimate relationship
Read 5 tweets
#es_f open is 2841.50 high 41.75 low 29360. Wide OR. Be patient.
Use the high of OR and low as trade locations.
Cut size trades in both markets
This is a good day to do nothing. Or very little. I am short small.
Read 3 tweets
Sorry I’m late. #es_f open is 2928.75 high 2929.25 low 28.50.
We are short at 28 in discord.
We paid for our trades at 2924 and now the next target is 2914-16
My bids are in at 2915 for the 2/3 of my shorts.
Read 3 tweets
#es_f open is 2915.25 high 15.50 low 13.50
Short ES 13.25.
Out of shorts at 14 long 15.50
Read 7 tweets
#es_f open is 2900 high 2901 low 99.75.
Short at 99.75
Stops are eyeballing a bid above 01. I will pay for me shorts at 95.75. First target is 90
Read 3 tweets
Its a rage to talk buybacks=RAMP BUT:

1. buyback securities have underperformed
2. epic buybacks didnt hold mkt up in Oct/Dec

BUYBACKS are NOT imo whats driven this episode - INTERVENTION via order matching is: THROTTLING

this is going to be an in-depth discussion & a long thread which we will update throughout evening

so come back to check it as it will take an hour or 2 before we’re done with all the posts explaining the conditions/character/repercussions of this new intervention mechanism /2
lets talk abt the types of intervention thatve regularly been used

1. Direct Asset Purchases &/or QE
2. Short Vol (Fed’s favorite technique up till recently)
3. Self-help exchange interruptions

The new one: THROTTLING has huge advantages for the idiot yet intellectual class /3
Read 21 tweets
..poi un giorno ci farete sapere quanto avete alzato shortando italia quando eravate sovranisti (hawkish) e poi rigirandovi una volta tornati euristi (dovish)
Il "flip-flop" di questo governo oltre ad essere un bail-out mascherato per banche IT via BTP, è "gain" per establishment
Establishment IT alla "canna del gas"..."o XI...o MORTE"...
Read 1014 tweets
...provano a mostrare che questo sia un "mondo" meraviglioso quanto più possono...Eurodollar timidamente si porta a sostegno di #ES_F ma #FED Fund Futures segnalano ancora ZERO chance di un rate hike e sono ancora in negativo per il 2019!!!
...occhio qui ...liquidità dal Tesoro partiva da 403, siamo 363...arrivo a 320 a marzo e 300 a giugno...è tutta liquidità che arriva al sistema, alla fine sulle riserve delle banche commerciali e che sostiene gli asset finanziari...#ES_F
...aggiornamento sulla liquidità globale,come detto il miglior indicatore di volatilità=liquidità lo avete dalla differenza tra max e min sul ticks Index US,serve uno "spread" >2.500 stabile altrimenti "no party"
CBs e Trump Boys sono in controllo totale, establishment brinda...
Read 594 tweets
New line in the sand on the day is 2684 which was a top 9 percentile X-Tick buyer capitulation. This is now support and will be defended...below it represents a demerit for buyers and would target prev seller exhaustion #ticktools
its no small achievement what buyers have accomplished here breaking over the 2684 X-Tick and it remains a bullish signal short-term #ticktools
for sellers would like to see #ES_F below this 2684 level...normally fed days are not straight up and the first reaction which in this case was positive is reversed...but not following that as of yet - we’ll see
Read 3 tweets
Out of these shorts for 1 point profit - action is weird
not feeling well today and this action is miserable...#ES_F needs below 2641.5 for sellers and popped back above it...if it drops below there imo bears get the ball and would likely attempt to run with it #ticktools
FWIW remain in our swing shorts BTW
Read 4 tweets

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