Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ethiopiancivilwar

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THREAD on #Ethiopia & region IV: #Eritrea withdraws from #Tigray, further instability looms

After repeated anecdotal information that Eritrean soldiers who took part in #EthiopianCivilWar had returned home, there are credible indicators Asmara may have pulled out its forces.
We won’t know that if these withdrawals apply to all Eritrean mechanized, infantry & specialized units & advisors until there is adequate opening up of Tigray; & that is unlikely to happen until Eritrean presence ends or kis reduced to imperceptible/deniable levels.
Not clear if withdrawal means #Eritrean & #Ethiopian leaders r satisfied with #TPLF's ‘liquidation’ or if Asmara is cutting losses to preserve gains. Pr. Isaias could be recalling troops to secure home front from internal challenge, threats TPLF still poses, & destabilization.
Read 9 tweets
THREAD on #Ethiopia & the region II
After 2 weeks of rebuffing mediation to ongoing #EthiopianCivilWar, PM @AbiyAhmedAli is begrudgingly warming up to that possibility. I pray for his courage for it takes courage to make peace, & for innocent civilians’ sake, I wish him success
Intricacies of possible mediation demand clear-eyed reading of what may have contributed to such coming out of one’s corner – even if lukewarm. Moreover, any dragging of one's feet to immediately ceasefire & allow humanitarian access brings near a catastrophe of epic proportions
Ethiopian federal forces & aligned regional militias are measuring success by territorial gains. A close monitoring of what appears to be transpiring on the frontlines, however, contradicts this. Gov't advances appear to be feeble & gains stoppable - if not reversible.
Read 16 tweets

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