Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #exchangerate

Most recents (14)

قطع عدد من المحتجّين #الطرقات صباح اليوم الإثنين، في #بيروت و #صيدا و #طرابلس، بعد دعواتٍ انتشرت أمس الأحد على مواقع التواصل الاجتماعي تندّد بالوضع المعيشي الراهن، لا سيّما الشقّ الطبّي واستمرار تدهور #سعر_صرف الليرة.
./1
#الطرقات_المقطوعة #لبنان
وقد رمى المتظاهرون الزيت في الطريق عند تقاطع المدينة الرياضية في #بيروت لمنع مرور السيارات.
2/2
Protesters blocked roads on Monday morning in #Beirut, #Saida and #Tripoli, after calls went out on social media Sunday, denouncing current living conditions, particularly the medical aspect and the continuous deterioration of the currency #exchangerate.
./1
#Roadblock #Lebanon
Read 4 tweets
Let’s talk #Venezuela and it’s never ending super hyper #inflation for a second
Thread 👇
1/ According to the consumer price index elaborated by the National Assembly, monthly inflation in #Venezuela jumped to 55.1% m/m in July – thereby taking it back above the hyperinflation baseline of 50% (!)
2/ Under widely accepted definition of hyperinflation proposed by Cagan in seminal study (1956) an episode of this extreme economic phenomenon begins when threshold is 1st crossed but only ends when monthly increase in price level drops below 50% and stays there for at least 1yr
Read 11 tweets
4 suggestions for #China in building a global center for financial asset allocation by Xiao Gang:
lnkd.in/gzQyA44
1. Speed up market-oriented financial reforms. Build a more market-based, rule-based, international financial sector. Remove redundant administrative controls so that the #market can play a decisive role in resource allocation.
2. Press ahead with #RMB internationalization. Explore the possibility of building a pool for cross-border funds of both RMB and foreign #currencies, upgrade its #forex management, and encourage transnationals to establish global or regional centers for fund management in China.
Read 6 tweets
Countries are extremely easing monetary policies, slashing interest rates and RRRs, to counteract the pandemic' blows on the financial market and real economies. #QE will inevitably expand the balance sheets of central banks, but it won't necessarily speed up total credit growth.
The massive easing of developed countries will spill over, especially to emerging markets: its income effect stabilizes global financial market and promotes economic pickup; but its relative price effect hampers capital flows and exports of emerging markets.
For now, the income effect is stronger in China than the relative price effect, which hasn't placed much upward pressure on RMB yet.
Read 7 tweets
Despite fluctuations amid the #pandemic, #China’s #financialmarket remains relatively stable & resilient compared with global financial market. Xiao Gang, CF40 Senior Fellow, believes China’s financial market has potential to become a center for global financial #assetallocation.
He says the market is basically equipped. This'll be vital for China’s economy and finance. Since the virus broke out, the safety, stability and profitability of #RMB assets are more evident. China should take the chance to build a global hub for financial #asset allocation.
However, coming with the huge benefits are huge risks and costs. The following proposals are made:

1. accelerate the market-oriented reform in the financial sector;

2. promote #RMB internationalization;
Read 4 tweets
China’s experience shows that opening up has promoted #trade and #investment liberalisation, #exchangerate liberalisation, relaxation of foreign exchange control and allowed the market to play a more active role.
Over the years, the troika reforms—opening of the financial industry, exchange rate liberalisation and relaxation of capital control—have made coordinated progress, creating a favourable financial environment for China’s economic growth (Zhou, 2017).
A problem with any of these three will affect the entire opening process. Therefore, although the pace of the three reforms may be uneven, they have been moving forward in the same direction.
Read 4 tweets
China's financial policy system should be further improved to gradually make it clearer, more transparent, understandable, stable, and in line with the inherent requirements of #RMB internationalization,said CF40 member Guo Kai, mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kCLviAhMXdx4… 1/5
It should be noted that the inflation targeting, the clean floating #exchangerate, and the free flow of capital generally adopted by the major reserve currency issuers are not the only institutional arrangements that meet the above characteristics. 2/5
Currency internationalization does not necessarily require the adoption of specific macroeconomic policy arrangements. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
To achieve the supply-side-driven internationalization of the RMB, we must first maintain strategic patience and set no timetable, said CF40 member Guo Kai, mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kCLviAhMXdx4… 1/7
How internationalized the #RMB is cannot be directly regarded as the policy goal itself. We do not deliberately pursue the RMB internationalization for a single moment. 2/7
The financial policy system of the major reserve currency issuers are all characterized by clarity, transparency, understandability and stability, which is compatible with the requirements of currency internationalization. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Looking at the change from 2017 to now, it basically manifests the central bank has rarely traded #forex directly in the market nowadays (Figure 1), said Huang Yiping, CF40 Academic Committee Chairman.1/5 cf40.org.cn/uploads/201909…. Image
The so-called “managed floating” refers to the management through “counter-cyclical factors”. The current #forex management system has changed drastically. Some scholars have even asserted that, in the past one or two years, we have almost achieved clean float.2/5
Let’s look at another indicator, #exchangerate flexibility. From the perspective of 12- month moving average volatility, volatility has been increasing since the end of 2010 (Figure 2), 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Last year when we discussed the situation of China-US trade war, we believed that it would take time for a "#tradewar" to turn into a "financial war", said CF40 member Chen Yuan. 1/5 cf40.org.cn/uploads/201909…
Exchange rate lies at the core of financial markets. It even occupies a more fundamental place in money markets as #exchangerate policy can impact a country’s money supply, inflation and economic growth. 2/5
For China, #exchangerate represents a price ratio that bears very close relations with countries involved, their enterprises and individuals. It is a key measurable index. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
The #China Macro Doctor series report on Chinese economic performance in July just came out. This is a monthly-based research program on China’s macroeconomic performance led by cf40 senior fellow Zhang Bin. 1/6 mp.weixin.qq.com/s/GblMnfGCBadH… #economics
ON ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: SMEs still under pressure; growth of industrial value added, consumption and fixed asset #investment all dropped compared with previous period; growth momentum of #export is weak; non-food #CPI continues to decline. 2/6
ON ECONOMIC OPERATION ENVIRONMENT: global #economy continues to slow down; newly added debt of govt, enterprises and households all decreased; short-term liquidity spread between 3-month #SHIBOR and 3-month government bond yield narrowed. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
6 ways that the #US may try to escalate the #tradewar by Yu Yongding at CASS:

1.More #tariffs. However, there may be an indigenous, natural force in the US to rectify #Trump’s wrong practice of “extreme pressure”.
2.Escalate #investment war. But as long as #China does its own things well, it can retain and attract foreign investments.

3.Cut off the #GVC and strangle China's tech companies.
4.1. Escalate #exchangerate war. Maintaining exchange rate stability under the pressure of #RMB depreciation will inevitably exert upward pressure on #interestrates.
Read 6 tweets
When #stagnation and #inflation occur at the same time, the determination of #monetarypolicy is usually more difficult.
At this point, the inter-bank market #interestrate tends to be volatile in the short term, and its final trend still depends on the change of aggregate #demand after the #cost shock recedes.
Particularly, empirical research shows that #housing #price, rather than #exchangerate, has restricted the marginal adjustments of #monetary #policies in #China to a certain extent.

By Wu Ge:
mp.weixin.qq.com/s/revqEiYfyO22…
Read 3 tweets
A detailed thread on Pakistan's debt and Foreign exchange reserves. #NayaPakistan is on the way becoming #NayaPaisaPakistan
In August 2018, foreign exchange reserves with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) stood at $10bn. Pak borrowed $3bn from SaudiArabia and $2bn from UAE. As of March 8, 2019, foreign exchange reserves with the SBP stood at $8bn. Still they are in talks with IMF to get $12bn more.
By Jan2019, the accumulated stock of circular debt had soared to Rs1.4 trillion. For the record, the PTI govt added Rs260billion in 137 days. The PTI govt is adding Rs2bn a day every day of the year (a few years ago, the same figure was Rs1bn a day). ((Rs is PKR currency))
Read 23 tweets

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