Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #fairrepact
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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Here's the overall diagram for all 435 seats based on the #FairRepAct maps that I drew over the last year.
The United States: 191R-206D-38?
The United States: 191R-206D-38?
120 districts total
5-winner: 43 (215 seats)
4-winner: 8 (32 seats)
3-winner: 56 (168 seats)
2-winner: 7 (14 seats)
1-winner: 6 (6 seats)
5-winner: 43 (215 seats)
4-winner: 8 (32 seats)
3-winner: 56 (168 seats)
2-winner: 7 (14 seats)
1-winner: 6 (6 seats)
This appears to have a slight pro-Democratic tilt overall, but I do not think it's meaningful, especially given the limits of the data we're working with.
Here's a master thread of my #FairRepAct maps, with one fact about the Act each.
1. The Fair Representation Act was introduced by Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) along with seven co-sponsors as #HR3863 in June, 2021.
Here's Virginia: 3 districts, 5-3-3, 5R-6D
1. The Fair Representation Act was introduced by Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) along with seven co-sponsors as #HR3863 in June, 2021.
Here's Virginia: 3 districts, 5-3-3, 5R-6D
2. The #FairRepAct establishes that all Representatives will be elected by proportional ranked choice voting.
Here's Arizona: 3 districts, 3-3-3, 3R-3D-3?
Here's Arizona: 3 districts, 3-3-3, 3R-3D-3?
3. Instead of each Rep having their own district, states would divide into larger multi-winner districts, each electing 3, 4, or 5 Reps proportionally. That's what these maps show.
Here's Colorado: 2 districts, 5-3, 3R-4D-1?
Here's Colorado: 2 districts, 5-3, 3R-4D-1?
Today let’s talk about the #FairRepAct, which was just reintroduced in Congress by @RepDonBeyer
Whether you’re completely new to this reform, or a long time fan, there are lots of benefits to discuss so let’s get started.
bit.ly/2YDIC7n
Whether you’re completely new to this reform, or a long time fan, there are lots of benefits to discuss so let’s get started.
bit.ly/2YDIC7n
Here are the basics. Our democracy is struggling. Our elections feel fragile. We are more polarized than ever. Faith in democracy as an institution is failing. bit.ly/3p9hc5I
And that’s because of #winnertakeall elections
Since I spent the time pulling it together, thought I'd share a rough projection of #Redistricting2021 with #ElectionTwitter (notwithstanding some uncertainty). 1/34
This uses the Census Bureau's December apportionment estimates. bleedingheartland.com/2020/12/23/iow… @DrRyanPhd
This uses the Census Bureau's December apportionment estimates. bleedingheartland.com/2020/12/23/iow… @DrRyanPhd
Getting the 1-seat states out of the way: 2/34
• AK-DE-ND-RI-SD-VT-WY: 4R-3D
Moving on to GOP controlled states:
• ID & WV are uniformly red: 2 R each
• No reason to expect any changes in MS: 3R-1D
• Or AL: 6R-1D
• AR: 4R (they can probably make the 2nd uncompetitive)
• AK-DE-ND-RI-SD-VT-WY: 4R-3D
Moving on to GOP controlled states:
• ID & WV are uniformly red: 2 R each
• No reason to expect any changes in MS: 3R-1D
• Or AL: 6R-1D
• AR: 4R (they can probably make the 2nd uncompetitive)
FL: 17R-12D 3/34
State redistricting laws + 2 new seats makes me imagine they’ll leave existing D seats alone, & add a new one in South FL. Then they can safely add an R seat around Orlando (& maybe try to flip another given 2020 Latino movement), while shoring up FL-26 & 27.
State redistricting laws + 2 new seats makes me imagine they’ll leave existing D seats alone, & add a new one in South FL. Then they can safely add an R seat around Orlando (& maybe try to flip another given 2020 Latino movement), while shoring up FL-26 & 27.
Welcome to the #ArtOfTheGerrymander! 1/43
A Dem-map a day to explore:
* state political geography &
* unfairness of single-winner districts
@davesredist +2020 projections #ElectionTwitter
@JMilesColeman @mikemathieu @PoliticsWolf @DKElections @Redistrict
dailykos.com/stories/2019/1…
A Dem-map a day to explore:
* state political geography &
* unfairness of single-winner districts
@davesredist +2020 projections #ElectionTwitter
@JMilesColeman @mikemathieu @PoliticsWolf @DKElections @Redistrict
dailykos.com/stories/2019/1…
2/43 Our running total starts: 5D-8R (skipping AK, DE, ND, SD, RI, VT, WY, HI, ID, WV).
NB: I try to maintain communities of interest & relatively compact maps; but compromise for D-maximization (may not comply with local rules). And I apply VRA as >50% primary (not total) pop.
NB: I try to maintain communities of interest & relatively compact maps; but compromise for D-maximization (may not comply with local rules). And I apply VRA as >50% primary (not total) pop.
3/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Utah
First off are some red states with competitive suburban seats e.g. Salt Lake City. I'd rate UT-04 as competitive by default, but would lean D with @RepBenMcAdams' incumbency. #ElectionTwitter
Running Total: 5D-11R-1? davesredistricting.org/join/7d2588ec-…
First off are some red states with competitive suburban seats e.g. Salt Lake City. I'd rate UT-04 as competitive by default, but would lean D with @RepBenMcAdams' incumbency. #ElectionTwitter
Running Total: 5D-11R-1? davesredistricting.org/join/7d2588ec-…
My contribution to keeping quarantined #ElectionTwitter sane: A Tour of the 50 States*
*Equal-population simulation (approximated by counties) 1/40
@JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @HarryEnten @Redistrict @ecaliberseven @PoliticsWolf @uselectionatlas @DKElections @Center4Politics
*Equal-population simulation (approximated by counties) 1/40
@JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @HarryEnten @Redistrict @ecaliberseven @PoliticsWolf @uselectionatlas @DKElections @Center4Politics
I used Redraw the States to resize them all to 10-11 Electoral Votes (sans DC/3 & Los Angeles county/16).
Electoral College:
2016: Clinton 297-241
2012: Obama 317-221
Then got curious how they voted for Gov/Sen... 2/40
kevinhayeswilson.com/redraw/?share=…
Electoral College:
2016: Clinton 297-241
2012: Obama 317-221
Then got curious how they voted for Gov/Sen... 2/40
kevinhayeswilson.com/redraw/?share=…
NB: Methodology: I combined results by year-sets e.g. 2012-16 (Sen), and 2013-16 (Gov).
I used the wonderful ourcampaigns.com to pull county results going back to 1957 (i.e. stopped when Hawaii and Alaska were admitted as states + data quality issues that far back). 3/40
I used the wonderful ourcampaigns.com to pull county results going back to 1957 (i.e. stopped when Hawaii and Alaska were admitted as states + data quality issues that far back). 3/40
Improved Dave's #Redistricting App brings me joy! (Gratefully anticipating post-2020). @davesredist @mikemathieu #ElectionTwitter 1/27
@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
gardow.com/davebradlee/re…
@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
gardow.com/davebradlee/re…
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
In the shadow of the deplorable SCOTUS decision in #Rucho, it's time once again to talk about how to fix gerrymandering. So, here comes a thread.
(Betcha never seen a Twitter thread w/ToC before!)
1/76
(Betcha never seen a Twitter thread w/ToC before!)
1/76
Elections twitter peeps have probably heard me make these points before. You may agree with some, disagree with others. Either way, respond! Above all, I want to spark dialogue. I saw in BC how, when we don't get ahead of the curve, we end up behind it.
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The tweet count on this thread is gonna be high, but I'm gonna make just 4 key points here. Here they are, up front, as a table of contents:
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