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@PaulGambles2 @MartinSoong @cnbcSri 1/ I agree with the points in your thread and share the expressed intuitions. In this reply I want to set aside the fed/asset questions and just focus on the real economy.
Events like this tend to accelerate trends that already existed, so let’s highlight 3 of those:
Events like this tend to accelerate trends that already existed, so let’s highlight 3 of those:
@PaulGambles2 @MartinSoong @cnbcSri 2/ a) Manufacturing employment both in absolute # as well as % of total workforce have been declining for decades. This trend may bounce a bit, but will accelerate. Even when sector output eventually goes up, jobs will decline.
@PaulGambles2 @MartinSoong @cnbcSri 3/ a) cont. Any reshoring that may happen won’t be big enough to change that. In fact, we should expect manufacturers to use the free capital available to invest in further automation to eliminate jobs made unreliable by virus “flare-ups” effecting employees.
