Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #firebreak

Most recents (3)

1/ Sadly I can believe our government is pursuing a #HerdImmunityByInfection “strategy” ….but I am really struggling to accept that their senior medical & scientific advisors & those in @PHE_uk etc are condoning such a brutal & inhumane policy.
2/Assuming govt want #coronavirus to spread rapidly, despite the natural #Firebreak provided by the school holidays, they must be feeling rather satisfied that the numbers of cases are ⬆️ so rapidly.
Presumably they block out the ⬆️in hospitalisations & deaths so they can sleep?
3/ They avoid the issue of #LongCovid wherever possible so are unlikely to notice the iceberg of morbidity as it gets larger.
Even if they do, difficulties in accessing a PCR test because the symptom list is inadequate will ⬇️ the number of ppl who can prove they had #COVID.
Read 11 tweets
1/

.@DogLady2020 I just checked back in on the prediction from 21 days ago & the 7 day average is 200 deaths per day

😖

Third time in a row I have been a bit under (181 yesterday, then we had catch up Monday) but a reasonable prediction for 14/11 is 300 - 400 deaths a day

😬
2/

Previous estimates have been based on the 7 day average of cases reported.

Shifting to 7 day average of cases by swab date gives an expected average of 206 deaths/day today - spookily accurate.

WARNING: We don't know the average yet as swab date lags by c. 4 days
3/

We are on day 57 👆

Looking at another measure - the log of cases reported so far 👇 you can see the orange line (deaths by date of death) is higher than the rolling average reported (blue)

This is because fatalities are rising - but note the last 5 days are unreliable
Read 11 tweets

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