Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #fiscal

Most recents (24)

The possible inclusion of the #Left party in a German government will certainly not “spook markets”. /thread
As per my thread below, the #Left has moderated its demands on economics, welfare policies and taxes. Still leftist, but not extreme. /2
But will that not lower Germany’s #growth? Maybe, medium to long term. Raise unemployment a bit? Maybe. (The #Left income tax plans create 300k jobs, acc to ifo institute). /3 ifo.de/publikationen/…
Read 14 tweets
Great conversation with @MerrillLynch CIO Chris Hyzy, as part of their #MerrillPerspectives event. Some of the topics we discuss follow and the full conversation can be accessed here: ml.com/2021-midyear-e…
On the #market lessons stemming from the pandemic, I suggested that- stepping back- while a lot has been thrown at the #economy and markets over the past 30 years, in every case the #policy response has been critical to evaluate in judging the ultimate impact: policy matters!
That said, we think there is an overestimation of the importance of exceedingly low #policy rate levels to the recovery but maintaining the stability and #liquidity of the financing #markets is critical, particularly at the top end of the capital stack.
Read 10 tweets
Thanks to @steve_sedgwick & @cnbcKaren for having me on #CNBC #SquawkBox this AM.

What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!

I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
1/n
#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE
Are people in denial or is the #centralbank money flood just drowning all the signals?
2/n
#inflation
#Commodities, #freight, #carbon - and a whole lot besides - sure do cost a lot more, these days.
3/n
Read 14 tweets
Super excited to see our paper on #Covid19 #Fiscal Support and its Effectiveness, with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed & @mraissi80 @IMFNews, out in Economics Letters. You can read it (free access) from here: authors.elsevier.com/c/1dDlMbZedt0om #TGVAR 1/n Image
With new variants/waves & reimposition of restrictions in some regions, governments around the world are calling for a careful assessment of the effectiveness of the adopted #Covid19 #fiscal measures before they embark on further easing or tailoring of measures 2/n
The #Covid19 pandemic led to a sharp tightening of global #financial conditions at the acute phase of the crisis and has inflicted large economic losses across the world (see Figure below) ... 3/n Image
Read 28 tweets
[Manifesto. #1 One]
#CivicWave is an #informalgroup of the #progressist area, on Twitter, but attentive to movements on other #social and off-network that, aware of the importance of active #participation, intends to take...

We call it #gentlerevolution.
[Manifesto. #2 Two]
Joining #CivicWave #OndaCivica is compatible with all progressive Italian and international hashtags, including:
#FR, #6000sardine, #Forumalcentro,
#FBPE, #FBPEGlobal, #FBR.

The symbols in bio are:
#OndaCivica🌊🌊🌊 #CivicWave🌊🌊🌊,
or for short #OC🌊
[Manifesto. #3 Three]
#CivicWave promotes the #civil and prolific confrontation of ideas and experiences, in #respect of the diversity of views, to reduce #conversions and protagonism, in the conviction that #dialogue is stimulus and richness and allows to highlight # common...
Read 8 tweets
While our February 18th monthly client call argument for rising #RealRates appeared prescient, we were surprised by the magnitude of last week’s #move and would expect a more benign evolution toward #equilibrium going forward.
Taking a stab at periodizing the past year: 1) in Feb/Mar 2020 the Covid crisis was priced into #markets, real #rates spiked higher, #inflation breakevens collapsed and #investors scrambled to raise #cash as the #SPX experienced its fastest 30% drawdown in history.
Then, 2) from Apr through Oct 2020 we witnessed the #market impact of monumental #monetary and #fiscal policy responses to the #crisis, as policymakers successfully sought to force #real rates down and restore #inflation expectations.
Read 10 tweets
🚨*𝐍𝐈𝐄𝐒𝐑 𝐁𝐮𝐝𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟏 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐤* 🚨

All you need to know ahead of next week's #Budget in one... THREAD 👇

1/19
#CovidEconomics
#BudgetSpeech2021
#EconTwitter
The #Budget2021 comes at a critical time when the UK is in the middle of battling the #pandemic and the economy is substantially weakened with uneven effects at industry, household & region level.

Read the economic context to #Budget2021 here 👇

2/19
niesr.ac.uk/publications/u…
We project the UK economy to contract again in 2021Q1 due to the second wave and the winter #lockdown as well as the effects of post-#Brexit adjustment, bringing #GDP to some 11% below pre-#pandemic levels

3/19
Read 19 tweets
In preparation for my slot on #SquawkBox yesterday, I sent the guys a few slides as a synopsis of my last, detailed subscriber report for the discussion.

I called it #Pyromania. Feel free to take a look

1/x

#macro #bonds #commodities #dollar #inflation #centralbanks #fiscal
Is it possible to overkill an act of overkill? #JeromePowell & #JanetYellen seem set to let us find out.

2/x
Not that they're alone in their folly, of course. The #ECB is outodoing them handsomely, while the #bankofengland is breaking records stretching back to its founding, 327 years ago.
#centralbanks
3/x
Read 10 tweets
The last several weeks have provided abundant drama for #markets to digest, but in our latest @BlackRock Market Insights commentary, we suggest that it’s two recent #publications that might prove more instructive for #portfolio #allocation in 2021: bit.ly/3p39aMo
First, @jasonfurman and @LHSummers make a strong case that lackluster #growth and #inflation in developed #markets may be boosted by targeted #fiscal spending. Over long horizons, the #cash flows that accrue from productive #investments render the #debt incurred sustainable.
Second, @RobertJShiller published a significant update to his widely followed #CAPE model: subtracting the real #yield on #USTs from the reciprocal of the CAPE ratio to show what an #equity #investor may expect to earn over #risk-free #bonds, in real terms based on #market price.
Read 5 tweets
The turn of the calendar year invites the temptation to prognosticate regarding the course of the year ahead for the #economy and for #markets, and not being immune to that impulse, here are our views on the “11 themes to consider as we look toward 2021:” bit.ly/386mb0r
In preview, one key theme is that 2021’s nominal #GDP growth is likely to surprise many skeptics with its strength. The sources of upside surprise can be found in: 1) the new #fiscal #stimulus combined with structural budget #deficits
And in 2) the @federalreserve’s ongoing asset purchases and 3) the impressive #economic momentum that is still broadly underestimated, as a post-election, and #pandemic-recovering world can catalyze 2020/21’s monetized #stimulus (more than 15% of GDP) into impressive NGDP growth.
Read 10 tweets
As we head into the U.S. #election, there will continue to be a lot of noise that may lead to near-term #market #volatility, particularly since (as we’ve long argued) #markets appear to be able to only focus on one thing at a time!
Still, at times like this it’s crucial to focus on more consequential factors that will drive #markets in the years ahead: in this case, the powerful combination of @federalreserve #monetarypolicy and #fiscal rescue measures intended to keep the #economic engine on track.
So, while many will continue to be skeptical of the sustainability of this #economic recovery, we’ve been impressed by its strength, particularly in the #interest-rate-sensitive segments of the #economy, like #housing, which is going through the roof!
Read 8 tweets
I am humbled and privilleged to note that my #Research paper; "Sources of #Unemployment in #Lesotho" is now available and can be accessed via the People's Republic of #China's National #Science and #Technology #Library - #NSTL. I give thanks 😎 Image
So far this year, I have successfully published three #Research articles in #Macroeconomics & #Finance, with another two in press. I am currently hammering away at a handful of working papers which will most certainly find a home in reputable #Journals, come 2021 🙏🏽🙂 Image
Im currently internalising the very insightful reviewer comments on my latest #Research paper titled; "Investigating Determinants of Commercial Bank Spreads in #Lesotho", from the good folks over at the globally reputable #International #Journal of #Finance & #Economics #IJFE 😊 ImageImage
Read 52 tweets
There are many concerns about #WESELPA (@UplandUnifiedSD, @AltaLomaSD, @CJUHSD and 6 other districts). Each of these Districts pay into the #WESELPA to support their special education students.

The link below is from the #Fiscal Crisis Management Team (#FCMAT), an independent
organization that was called in by Independent districts within #WESELPA because of lack of trust and transparency. This report was done in 2010 and the same issues still exist in 2020.

This report talks about the contingency fund (#Xpot)* that is used for legal fees, p29.
The report states that staff was skeptical if Xpot* was used for intended purposes, #Xpot may encourage undesirable practices, Xpot is not a source of funding, #SELPA members do not have a clear understanding. *the term Xpot is no longer used.

Report stated #SELPA needs
Read 6 tweets
A tremendous amount of ink has been spilled discussing the supposed quandary of the #equity market’s robust recovery since March, while at the same time #economic improvement has been more uneven and uncertain.
At the heart of this misunderstanding is an apples-to-oranges comparison: the fact is that the #stock #market and the #economy, while connected, are two meaningfully distinct entities.
As a case in point, the correlation between domestic corporate #profits and #GDP #growth collapsed in the 1990s and has hovered near zero for the past three decades. Image
Read 7 tweets
The #deficit #myth #deficitmyth by @StephanieKelton #MMT modern monetary theory
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 2: #deficit is evidence of #overspending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
The purpose of #taxes is not to pay for #government expenditures but to help rebalancing the #wealth distribution #MMT
Read 56 tweets
ABRO HILO: Oficina de #KatherineMartorell, @SubPrevDelito, fue requisada durante la jornada de ayer (27/08/2020) debido a querella criminal presentada por empresa oferente que detectó irregularidades en proceso de licitación.👇
La diligencia que se llevó a cabo sigilosamente, podría continuar mañana, pues es demasiada la información que está recopilando la #BrigadaAnticorrupciónDeLaPDI. Esta es una de las tantas diligencias que solicitó la parte querellante. 👇
La investigación que afecta a la @SubPrevDelito recayó en en #Fiscal Francisco Ledezma, de la #FiscaliaCentroNorte quien el 26 de julio emitió la orden de requisar la información relacionada con el proceso de licitación ID 654478-2-LR20.👇
Read 7 tweets
Let’s talk #Venezuela and it’s never ending super hyper #inflation for a second
Thread 👇
1/ According to the consumer price index elaborated by the National Assembly, monthly inflation in #Venezuela jumped to 55.1% m/m in July – thereby taking it back above the hyperinflation baseline of 50% (!)
2/ Under widely accepted definition of hyperinflation proposed by Cagan in seminal study (1956) an episode of this extreme economic phenomenon begins when threshold is 1st crossed but only ends when monthly increase in price level drops below 50% and stays there for at least 1yr
Read 11 tweets
We’ve seen near a 20-basis point backup in long #bond #rates since the beginning of the month, which has come alongside many #economic data prints that have surprised to the upside, as well as firmer than expected #inflation. Image
One question to consider, then, is how much of this #economic improvement is due to restocking dynamics versus more permanent/structural gains to #economic activity? The answer to that is likely to become more apparent in the months ahead.
We foresee a gradually rising range for long-end #yields in the year’s second half, as @USTreasury issuance will remain robust. Image
Read 5 tweets
Core #CPI surprised to the upside, driving a solid gain in headline #inflation as well. The strength in the July report was driven by components impacted by #Covid unwinding some of their previous large declines and bouncing back from depressed levels.
We saw solid gains in transportation services components, such as #airfares, motor vehicle #insurance and rental #cars, which reflect that bounce back.
The #monetary and #fiscal policy responses to the crisis have credibly bridged the #economic gap caused by the unprecedented lockdowns, yet as #inflation deficiencies were already present pre-Covid, it’s likely that #policy will need to remain supportive for some time.
Read 5 tweets
At a time the #USCongress is vigorously debating another #fiscal rescue package to support households and businesses into year end, it’s vital to think hard about the intersection between #Fed monetary policy/fiscal support and what it means for #markets: bit.ly/3fkZbfM Image
In fact, the #CovidCrisis forced an evolution in policy coordination, whereby for the first time since WWII, U.S. policymakers married monetary and fiscal policy, with the #Fed and @USTreasury working together to inject cash from the #Fed’s #QE programs into the private sector…
That has been game changing for #liquidity near-term and should continue to help combat the #economic fallout from the #pandemic.
Read 7 tweets
Today’s #JobsReport, which witnessed nearly 1.8 million #jobs gained in the month of July, was stronger than many anticipated, yet it also displayed some signs of slowdown in #labor #market improvement.
The report shows that the pace of #job-gain acceleration has now slowed markedly, and it is our best guess that the rapid rate of return to #work will now exhibit a very deliberate pace of rebound from here.
That’s particularly the case for some sectors, such as #retail and #leisure #hospitality, where the slowing in improvement was even more pronounced.
Read 7 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 08/04/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/08/04/dai…
A new test to investigate the origin of cosmic structure

phys.org/news/2020-08-c…

#structure #origin #cosmic
Opinion | A Coronavirus Vaccine Is Coming. Just Don’t Call It ‘Warp Speed.’ - The New York Times

nytimes.com/2020/08/03/opi…

#vaccine #speed
Read 6 tweets
While the #JobsReport data during the #pandemic has shown itself to be highly unpredictable and #volatile, the remarkable gain of 4.8 million #jobs in June is a heartening development.
Today’s data suggested that the #labor #markets continue the process of carving out a bottom, as June’s #unemployment rate dropped to 11.1% from a peak of just less than 15% in April.
Those regions of the #economy that witnessed the greatest #job losses are now bouncing back strongly, but it is also clear that leisure, travel, energy, etc., have a very uncertain path forward today, despite seeing significant bounce-backs in near-term data.
Read 5 tweets

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