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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Polls are closing in a bunch of key races — @19thnews has live results via @DecisionDeskHQ!
Full race roundup:19thnews.org/2022/11/house-…
Senate:19thnews.org/2022/09/senate…
House:19thnews.org/2022/10/house-…
Governors:19thnews.org/2022/05/govern…
Abortion ballot measures: 19thnews.org/2022/11/aborti…
Full race roundup:19thnews.org/2022/11/house-…
Senate:19thnews.org/2022/09/senate…
House:19thnews.org/2022/10/house-…
Governors:19thnews.org/2022/05/govern…
Abortion ballot measures: 19thnews.org/2022/11/aborti…
@19thnews @DecisionDeskHQ .@MaElviraSalazar defeats @Annette_Taddeo in #FL27, one of the races with more than woman candidate that I'm watching tonight, per @DecisionDeskHQ 19thnews.org/2022/10/house-…
@19thnews @DecisionDeskHQ @MaElviraSalazar @Annette_Taddeo And Republican Anna Paulina Luna, @voteapl, has FLIPPED #FL13 from Democratic to Republican control, @DecisionDeskHQ projects — this seat was most recently held by Charlie Crist, who gave it up to run for governor 19thnews.org/2022/10/house-…
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
1/3 - Campaign for @Annette_Taddeo puts out 400 pp poll on #FL27, showing her up on @MaElviraSalazar by just under 1%. (47%-46.3%-6.7%)
Calling race "statistical tie" in a "razor thin" district that's gone back and forth.
MOE +/- 4.9.
Oct 3-5. ENG + ESP.
77% cell
@nbc6
Calling race "statistical tie" in a "razor thin" district that's gone back and forth.
MOE +/- 4.9.
Oct 3-5. ENG + ESP.
77% cell
@nbc6
2/3 - This comes after reporting that #FL27 is the most expensive race for Congress in Florida. One of the few swing districts left in the entire country.
floridapolitics.com/archives/56098…
floridapolitics.com/archives/56098…
Also of note from Taddeo poll from #FL27
- Taddeo campaign says they're up (55%-40%) for people with their ballots / VBM.
- @GovRonDeSantis up on @CharlieCrist 50%-44%.
- very close btw @marcorubio and @valdemings 47%-48%
@nbc6
- Taddeo campaign says they're up (55%-40%) for people with their ballots / VBM.
- @GovRonDeSantis up on @CharlieCrist 50%-44%.
- very close btw @marcorubio and @valdemings 47%-48%
@nbc6
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
Race: #TX34
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Race: #CA22
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
The AP has called #FL11 GOP primary for Rep. Dan Webster. The longest-serving state legislator in FL history and its first GOP state House speaker since Reconstruction turns back far-right activist Laura Loomer in shockingly tight contest.
Over in GOP primary for open and dark red #OK02, former state Sen. Josh Brecheen leads state Rep. Avery Frix 54.5-45.5. Group affiliated with Club for Growth spent heavily for Brecheen, a former Club fellow.
AP calls #FL13 GOP primary for Trump's candidate, 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna. She'll face former DoD official Eric Lynn in seat GOP gerrymandered into 53-46 Trump.
Polls have closed in most of Florida, where a huge amount of votes usually start coming in early; Oklahoma is at 8 PM ET/ 7 local time, New York 9 ET. We'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here dailykos.com/stories/2022/8…
This is the biggest U.S. election night from now till November. Check out our cheat sheet for what to follow! docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
You can also find our preview of tonight's MANY big races dailykos.com/stories/2022/8…
NEW: FL's Senate Rs release four draft congressional maps. Bizarre: these maps shore up #FL27 Rep. Maria Salazar (R), but otherwise are barely gerrymanders. By my count these maps break down 16-12 Trump-Biden, vs. 15-12 today. Is this a head fake?
New @CookPolitical: just when Florida Dems thought it couldn't get any worse, it's about to. Why FL is the GOP's biggest redistricting weapon of 2022. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
Thanks to the FL Supreme Court's hard right turn, Republicans could stretch their current 16R-11D lead in House seats (left) to as wide as 19R-9D (example, right) - erasing most of Dems' current House margin.
The reason? Unlike maps in other large states the GOP controls (TX, GA, OH), the current FL map isn't already a Republican gerrymander. It was redrawn by courts in 2016 after a more liberal FL Supreme Court struck down the GOP's 2011 map. Now, Dems are in big trouble.
FLORIDA: if you thought things couldn't get worse for Dems...it can. FL could be the GOP's biggest redistricting weapon of 2021.
FL is poised to gain two seats. At a minimum, Rs could easily add two new safe R seats (right) to the current 16R-11D map (left). But...
FL is poised to gain two seats. At a minimum, Rs could easily add two new safe R seats (right) to the current 16R-11D map (left). But...
Because the FL Sup Ct has turned sharply right since 2015, Rs could be even more aggressive - in defiance of FL's Fair Districts amendments.
At the extreme end, Rs could attempt a 21R-8D gerrymander (below), which could cost Dems almost their entire House majority.
At the extreme end, Rs could attempt a 21R-8D gerrymander (below), which could cost Dems almost their entire House majority.
A RECAP of 2020 House races (now that #NY22 is finally resolved)
Dems have 222 House seats. Rs have 213 seats. They are 5 seats away from the majority
Rs flipped 14 Democratic seats & captured the Amash seat. Dems flipped 3 seats. The GOP net gain: 12 seats
Dems have 222 House seats. Rs have 213 seats. They are 5 seats away from the majority
Rs flipped 14 Democratic seats & captured the Amash seat. Dems flipped 3 seats. The GOP net gain: 12 seats
Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
Biden/R districts (9):
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
Correction to first tweet: at most 17, if Brindisi (D) prevails in #NY22. Would still be less than half of the 35 in 2016.
hello! While we're waiting for more presidential results, I thought I'd give you an update on the House. @DecisionDeskHQ projects that Republicans have won back 5 seats on net so far. Rs flipped 7 seats and Dems won back 2 thanks to redistricting in NC businessinsider.com/2020-house-ele…
Seats projected to flip D to R, per @DecisionDeskHQ
#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)
Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)
Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
Democrats have also fallen short on many of their offensive targets to flip R-held seats: their most promising pickup opportunity is #GA07, where @DecisionDesk HQ has not projected a winner and we should (hopefully!) get more clarity today as more votes are counted/reported
We're celebrating this morning as 13 NEW proudly #ProLife women (and counting‼️) win their races for the U.S. House!!
#FL27 @MaElviraSalazar
#NM02 @Yvette4congress
#MN07 @FischbachMN7
#SC01 @NancyMace
#OK05 @stephaniebice
1/
#FL27 @MaElviraSalazar
#NM02 @Yvette4congress
#MN07 @FischbachMN7
#SC01 @NancyMace
#OK05 @stephaniebice
1/
#CO03 @laurenboebert
#MI10 @LisaForCongress
#FL03 @Kat_Cammack
#TN01 @DHarshbargerTN1
#IL15 @Miller_Congress
#IA01 @hinsonashley
2/
#MI10 @LisaForCongress
#FL03 @Kat_Cammack
#TN01 @DHarshbargerTN1
#IL15 @Miller_Congress
#IA01 @hinsonashley
2/
These courageous women join the 13 current incumbent #ProLife women in the U.S. House who ALL won their races last night.
We're so proud of these women who will be a bold voice for moms and unborn babies on Capitol Hill & we look forward to working with them to save lives!
3/3
We're so proud of these women who will be a bold voice for moms and unborn babies on Capitol Hill & we look forward to working with them to save lives!
3/3
Another vulnerable freshman House Democrat down — Insider and @DecisionDeskHQ project that Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham in #SC01 has been defeated by Republican challenger Nancy Mace businessinsider.com/south-carolina…
First-term Democrats who flipped R-controlled seats in 2018 but have conceded their 2020 races/been projected to lose by @DecisionDeskHQ:
-Debbie Mucrasel-Powell #FL26
-Donna Shalala #FL27
-Max Rose #NY11
-Xochitl Torres Small #NM02
-Kendra Horn #OK05
-Joe Cunningham #SC01
-Debbie Mucrasel-Powell #FL26
-Donna Shalala #FL27
-Max Rose #NY11
-Xochitl Torres Small #NM02
-Kendra Horn #OK05
-Joe Cunningham #SC01
Abby Finkenauer in #IA01, Anthony Brindisi in #NY22, TJ Cox in #CA21, and Gil Cisneros in #CA39 are all positioned to also conceivably join the list in the coming days, based on @DecisionDeskHQ results
Check it out!
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Check it out!
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#Congress2020
#FL1 #FL2 #FL3 #FL4 #FL5 #FL6 #FL7 #FL8 #FL9 #FL10 #FL11 #FL12 #FL13 #FL14 #FL15 #FL16 #FL17 #FL18 #FL19 #FL20 #FL21 #FL22 #FL23 #FL24 #FL25 #FL26 #FL27
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#FL1 #FL2 #FL3 #FL4 #FL5 #FL6 #FL7 #FL8 #FL9 #FL10 #FL11 #FL12 #FL13 #FL14 #FL15 #FL16 #FL17 #FL18 #FL19 #FL20 #FL21 #FL22 #FL23 #FL24 #FL25 #FL26 #FL27
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FL1
Running against Matt Gaetz #FL1
Democratic Candidate
FLORIDA 1st Congressional District
PHIL EHR
Retired Navy Commander
ehrforcongress.com
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@PhilEhr
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Running against Matt Gaetz #FL1
Democratic Candidate
FLORIDA 1st Congressional District
PHIL EHR
Retired Navy Commander
ehrforcongress.com
Donate here secure.actblue.com/donate/ehr-for…
@PhilEhr
THREAD
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All Dem Candidates 50 States: postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
FL2
FLORIDA 2nd Congressional District
NO DEM CANDIDATE
FLORIDA 2nd Congressional District
NO DEM CANDIDATE
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50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
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50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
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#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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#FL1 #FL2 #FL3 #FL4 #FL5 #FL6 #FL7 #FL8 #FL9 #FL10 #FL11 #FL12 #FL13 #FL14 #FL15 #FL16 #FL17 #FL18 #FL19 #FL20 #FL21 #FL22 #FL23 #FL24 #FL25 #FL26 #FL27
#DemCastFL #NoSafeSeats
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All hands on deck!
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Pages on the #PostcardsforAmerica website with all Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
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#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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