Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #flattenTheCurve

Most recents (24)

●パンデミックからの教訓は「国民を信じ、真実をそのまま伝える事」
→natureの記事です。
デンマークのパンデミック対応に関する記載になっています。
主張しているメッセージはシンプルです。
「国民に真実を伝えよ」、それでも「パニックは起こらない」です。
全体に漂う自慢気な雰囲気が鼻につきますが・・・(笑)
文化等の背景の違いは無関係に「全世界で適用可能」と、検証なしに主張するのは、個人的には科学的議論とは言えないように思えます。
また本主張の単純な鵜呑みは、結果バイアスの罠にはまるリスクもありそうです。
しかし考察に値する内容ではあると思います。
COVID lesson: trust the public with hard truths
nature.com/articles/d4158…
Read 24 tweets
1/5 Auch im Herbst/ Winter gilt #FlattenTheCurve. Dabei spielt #Impfen eine entscheidende Rolle: Je mehr Leute sich jetzt impfen lassen, desto weniger Menschen werden im Herbst an #COVID19 erkranken.

Wie groß der Effekt sein kann, erfahrt ihr im Thread 👇

#ImpfenSchuetzt
2 / 5
Anhand einer Modellrechnung des #RKI geschätzte Fallzahlen bei einer #Impfquote von 65% bei den 12- bis 59-Jährigen in 🇩🇪 (Fälle pro 100.000):

Weitere Informationen: rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
3 / 5
Geschätzte Fallzahlen bei einer #Impfquote von 85% bei den 12- bis 59-Jährigen in 🇩🇪 (Fälle pro 100.000): Image
Read 5 tweets
So we are back at the pandemic stage of turning the hospital cafeteria into COVID spillover beds. 🥳
(Sarcasm with the 🥳)
Everyone should give credit to Covid-denier-in-chief #DeathSantis
Read 4 tweets
Wo ist das strategische Ziel der Bundesregierung in der Pandemiebekämpfung? Mein Beitrag:
Es ist an der Zeit, über die Aufhebung von Beschränkungen zu diskutieren, statt mit Impfpflicht, Schulschließung oder neuem Lockdown unverhältnismäßige Kollateralschäden zu riskieren. 1/14
Zu Beginn der Pandemie Anfang 2020 war das unumstrittene, internationale Ziel: „flatten the curve“, d.h. die absolute Zahl der akut Infizierten gering zu halten, damit die Intensivstationen nicht überlastet werden. 2/14
Dazu dienten die Infektionsschutzmaßnahmen der ersten drei Wellen. Durch die Maßnahmen wurde die erste Welle früh gebrochen, wurden in der zweiten Welle unzählige Leben gerettet und wurden in der dritten Welle unsere Intensivstationen vor der Überlastung geschützt. 3/14
Read 15 tweets
Outbreaks compared
🗓️Day 20

For log-scale super fans (and the rest of us) - charts comparing biggest #covid19aus outbreaks

1/6 ... 7 biggest outbreaks in NSW / VIC
👙Bondi - blue (330 cases)

covid19data.com.au/compare-outbre…

#covidsydney #COVID19 #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Vic
2/6 ... What does it look like on a log scale?

Useful bc it doesn't only show us whether cases are growing, but how quickly they're growing

#FlattenTheCurve
3/6 ... 'Hold the line': 3 biggest outbreaks

Shows daily cases and 7-day averages on log scale

Useful because it shows whether we are 'holding the line' against daily growth in cases

👙Bondi - blue
🌊VIC 2nd wave - light grey (took off around now)
🍺Crossroads - dark grey
Read 8 tweets
Using Twitter during the #COVID19 pandemic?

With @cc_martell and @DanielRhysThom1, I wrote a perspective piece on social media for (field) epidemiologists #SoMe4epi

📜 tinyurl.com/2km3dz4s

THREAD 🧵👇
@THLorg @rki_de @PublicHealthW @ECDC_EU #EPIET #WorldFieldEpidemiologyDay
We reflect on social media/@Twitter for epidemiologists working on the #COVID19 response

We introduce the field of social media to those not currently using social media in their public health practice:

So please share outside of the Twitterverse as well!

#SoMe4epi #OpenAccess
Why this piece?

🌍 #COVID19 is the 1st pandemic in the social media age

🕵️‍♂️ Field epi now also includes an online field

👨‍💻 Social media can be a powerful tool for epidemiologists #SoMe4epi

🤝 Key usages of Twitter include #SciComm and professional development #EpiTwitter
Read 24 tweets
1/n
You liked #TheGreatReset from @wef and @ProfKlausSchwab ?

weforum.org/great-reset/

You'll love #BuildBackBetter

Who could say no to that? Who wouldn't want it "better"?
2/n
Our international Great Leaders have been showing and paving the way since over a year already. After all, is there a better opportunity than this #Covid19 'pandemy' to tackle it?
3/n
The (in)famous @wef is of course pushing for it
weforum.org/agenda/2020/07… Image
Read 10 tweets
Das bringt es ziemlich auf den Punkt. Von Anfang an war es das Ziel, die Intensivstationen nicht zu überlasten.

#FlattenTheCurve war in aller Munde und hatte genau das zum Ziel - Die Welle in die Länge ziehen um nicht über die Kapazitätsgrenze zu gelangen.

#Covid19at
Es wurde von natürlicher Herdenimmunität schwadroniert - der schwedische Weg diente vielen als Vorbild.

Anfangs wusste man noch nicht so viel über die Krankheit, außer dass es zu einem Lungenversagen führt.

Von einer Impfung konnte man nur träumen.
Auch ich verstand damals noch nicht viel von der Pandemie und fand die Argumente für FlattenTheCurve plausibel. Nach der ersten Welle hatte ich gemischte Gefühle. Ich habe einige schwere Fälle erlebt, die meisten sind gestorben.
Read 18 tweets
Beim #Corona-Narrativ geht es doch eigentlich darum die Überlastung des Gesundheitssystems zu verhindern, oder? "#fattenthecurve" war das Schlagwort - könnt ihr euch erinnern? (M)ein Thread. /1
Am Beispiel von #Bayern will ich drei Dinge aufzeigen: 1. Es gab/gibt keine Überlastung des Gesundheitssystems. 2. Behandlungskapazitäten werden stetig zurückgefahren... 3. Intensivbettenauslastung soll arbiträren Inzidenzwert als Kriterium für Maßnahmen ablösen. /2
Zum Gipfel der 1. #Corona-#Welle am 21.04.2020 belegten #COVID-19-Patienten nur 15,5 Prozent der verfügbaren #Intensivbetten in Bayern, 54 Prozent der Intensivbetten waren frei. /3
Read 22 tweets
Flashback. May 2, 2020:

"Emergency wait times at London #hospitals are so low, doctors want to remind you they're still open"

#CndPoli #COVID19

cbc.ca/news/canada/lo…
May 2, 2020 Cont'd: "Doctors at southwestern Ontario's largest hospital are urging the public not to delay seeking medical care in an emergency room, after noticing a decline in emergency admissions since the #coronavirus crisis began."

cbc.ca/news/canada/lo…
May 2, 2020 Cont'd: "On average, province-wide, emergency patients are waiting a mere one hour and 36 minutes to see a doctor in #emergency departments as of Friday, according to the provincial website that tracks wait times at hospitals across #Ontario."
Read 10 tweets
Was machen bei steigenden Zahlen und bei wachsendem Anteil von VoC (Variants of Concern - besorgniserregende Varianten) wie #B117?
#ECDC gibt dazu klare Empfehlungen. Ob Hannovers OB @BelitOnay das gelesen hat vor Öffnungs-Forderungs-Paper Unterschrift?
H: Inz 115 & #B117 40-50%
Hier nochmal zum im Thread bleiben die "Options for Response" der @ECDC_EU .
Quelle:
ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication…➡️
3/ Die Öffnungsforderung von 17 Oberbürgermeistern, darunter #Onay will das Gegenteil.➡️
haz.de/Nachrichten/De… via @HAZ
Read 58 tweets
Ontario PHU evening update - some good news 👏
York region drops below the 100 level. 📉
Only four regions remain purple tonight. More ⤵️
#Covid19 #onpoli #onted #onhealth Image
Regional rankings. Image
Trends for the top 5. Image
Read 4 tweets
🧵🦠📈 Ontario Morning Update Jan 31
~ Key stats, regions, trends ~
1,848 new cases
3.9% wkly positivity 📉
43 deaths
hospitalized / ICU underreported today
336,828 💉 (+9,373)#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
💡find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27
Regions. 5 remain at 100+ weekly cases per 100K.
School openings with weekly case rates.
Read 9 tweets
Why we need to #CrushB117, not #FlattenTheCurve.

A thread.

1/7
The threat that #B117 and other fast-spread #CoronavirusStrain|s pose is starting to get wider attention.

The question that is still wide open: What to do?
2/7
The ECDC are very clear in their first threat assessment

"efforts to *prevent* and *control* the spread of the variant should mirror those effective in an early epidemic phase" (emphasis mine).

In other words - don't let it get or keep a foothold.
3/7
ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication…
Read 9 tweets
Evolution ist ein Produkt aus Mutation und Selektion, nahezu perfekt in Darwins berühmtem Baum zusammengefasst. Anhand von Covid19 sehen wir gerade Evolution live vor unseren Augen ablaufen, aber wie ist das alles zu beurteilen, was heißt das für 2021? 🧵1/17 Darwins "I think" Stammbaum
TL;DR: Wir haben perfekte Bedingungen geschaffen um Sars-Cov2 Evolution in Echtzeit zu beobachten. Um zu verhindern, dass sich Mutationen ansammeln die das Virus infektiöser oder sogar tödlicher zu machen, muss #flattenthecurve und #zerocovid unser Ziel für 2021 sein. 2/17
Primer Evolution:
1.Evolution verläuft nicht gerichtet, es gibt kein Ziel, das Ergebnis ist zufällig.
2.Mutationen entstehen zufällig und werden zufällig weitergegeben.
3.Selektion passiert durch Umgebungsfaktoren und entscheidet welche Mutationen sich durchsetzen.
3/17
Read 17 tweets
THREAD
UK Government Covid 19 response. The catalogue of lies, false promises and corruption (I am sure I will have missed some from this)!
@emmakennytv @FatEmperor @OldCodger15 @smilesmattertoo @ClareWills9 @ClareCraigPath @JamesMelville @Carls_Musings @MinistryDissent
1/ DON’T WEAR MASKS - Prof Whitty said: “In terms of wearing a mask, our advice is clear: that wearing a mask if you don’t have an infection reduces the risk almost not at all. So we do not advise that.” independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-n…
2/ WEAR MASKS - Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer said: Wearing a face covering is an added precaution that may have some benefit in reducing the likelihood that a person with the infection passes it on. gov.uk/government/new…
Read 20 tweets
1/ Oh @halfon4harlowMP this interview is a shocker for selective quoting, and it appears you haven't read or understand what SAGE have said about school and students

This is full of fallacies
2/ "Transmission is low" You're quoting the PHE report on infectiousness of children, this line has done a lot of work in UK media and also in other countries but its a misquote
The report said they had "low confidence" in this statement, see for yourself
3/ Report did say they had high confidence schools returning would have significant impact on RO, they said the reports findings of low transmission could only be applied to schools during lockdown with limited student numbers and shouldn't be applied to September opening
Read 19 tweets
Let’s talk about one cost of this pandemic we aren’t fully able to quantify. As an oncologist, care for my patients, and my potential patients is suffering because of #covid19. Even those who will never contract the disease themselves. Let’s unpack this.

cancer.org/about-us/what-…
Unfortunately, a less visible direct impact of the pandemic on patients with cancer & other chronic illness is the damage to their care we can’t quantify. Delays in
🏥diagnosis bc of necessary lockdowns
🏥surgeries bc of resources
🏥treatment ➡️ progression of disease.
As @FutureDocs described so well in this thread 🧵 👇🏽, care for both #covid19 and non-COVID19 patients is being sacrificed due to a lack of supplies, staff and space. As cases surge, other emergency and non-emergency care is delayed, or unable to be given.
Read 26 tweets
@thatalicewu @rachel_elisse .@prof_goldberg has been sharing these stories w/ the intro “Meanwhile, in non-failed societies...” The fatalism & acceptance of federal failures here in the US is hard to see. Taiwan & others did social distancing the way it was supposed to be done....
@thatalicewu @rachel_elisse @prof_goldberg Close down places where people spend significant time indoors. Do it for a few weeks to stop exponential spread while you massively ramp up resources & public health infrastructure for easy-access testing, impeccable contact tracing & strong supports for isolation (TTSI)
@thatalicewu @rachel_elisse @prof_goldberg Public health experts knew *knew* massive resources for #TestTraceIsolate were needed to suppress transmission. We knew it was the *only* way to return to some sense of normalcy without 100s of 1000s of deaths. We knew *how* to make it happen... but...
Read 8 tweets
#COVIDAlert

Think the vaccine will end our #COVID19 problems soon?

Think again.

Pfizer will produce 50 million doses this year. 1/2 of those may go to the US. Each person needs 2 doses, so 12.5 million of us get vaccinated with Pfizer vaccine . /1

pfizer.com/news/press-rel…
Moderna says they will have 20 million doses this year for US. Again, 2 doses each. That’s another 10 million.

That means maybe 22 million out of 328 million people get vaccinated this year. /2

cnbc.com/2020/11/16/mod…
While we get excited about a vaccine, #COVID19 cases rise. We have had one million cases documented over the past week, our rate of rise is higher than it even was in the summer, we have hospitalizations going up 25% week over week.” /3

#PeopleAreDying

cnn.com/2020/11/19/hea…
Read 12 tweets
From WHO:
What is a contact? "Direct contact" or within 1 metre (about 3 feet) for 15 minutes (regardless of mask status).
Stay quarantined for 14 days. Testing isn't mentioned? Why not? Because negative tests aren't always accurate. They're a snapshot in time. If you are a possible contact, you should first be contacted
Does this mean don't bother to test? Absolutely not! Testing is great. But it's not a permission slip to have unsafe contact.
For the next 4 weeks we need to #StayHome and attempt to #FlattenTheCurve again. Right now it's a terrifying line straight up, but we can bend it.
This winter will be hard, there's no other way to say it. We have to weigh every action so carefully. But there's a hope of saving lives until a vaccine, or a reasonable public health system comes forward.

#MaskUp when essential work is required, but otherwise please, #StayHome
Read 3 tweets
1/ Dieser Artikel enthält nich eine einzige neue Information & dennoch scheint es wichtig, d. Inhalt nochmals klarzustellen:
Unsere Intensiv beatmet bereits über Standardkapazität hinaus.
Der Anteil beatmungspflichtiger COVID-19 Pat. mit langen Verweildauern steigt stetig.
2/ Umliegende Zentren nehmen bereits jetzt nicht mehr auf. 2 Diskussionen dürfen nun nicht mit einander vermischt werden:
A) Umgang m. akuter Krisensituation macht Szenarien notwendig, d. sich niemand wünscht. Nämlich Akquise v Personal f. Intensiv, d. dort eigtl nicht arbeiten.
3/ Folge ist, dass weniger routiniertes Personal schwer kranke, beatmete Pat. (teilweise im Multiorganversagen) mitbehandeln. Das reduziert unweigerlich die Überlebenschancen & erklärt den dtl. Anstieg der Sterblichkeit, wenn Kapazitäten überlastet sind.
Read 5 tweets
Time for a BIG thread and for me to return to where i made my bones: #Covid19.

This time with a prediction that will end up hurting A Lot:

#Europe will stay in lockdown until March/April 2021. If it doesn't, the virus overwhelms hospitals and forces a lockdown anyway.

1/x (50)
First, some background, as i know many of you are new to the channel (Welcome!!) and to show i'm not "just some guy on twitter".

While you probably found me because of #silver or #Tether, I made my bones correctly predicting #Covid19 would turn pandemic.

Around January 11th 2/x
Before the Virus, i was trying to become an inventor. On the 7th of January, me and my Russian friend had just ended up with a quote of about 15k to build an app i designed - but we were broke.

The plan became for me to sell a small invention to raise capital for an alpha. 3/x
Read 50 tweets
The definition of ideology is that it is immune to empirical refutation. Facts literally bounce off it.
2/ Scientists who have to pay attention to how reality works & not ideological words are devastatingly clear as to which governments least followed science in dealing with COVID-19.
economist.com/graphic-detail… Image
3/ Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, or find prettier ways to talk about it, or ignore it, doesn't go away. The 21stC is the Age of Consequences — of reality biting back, and we must learn to bend to its will. #viraltime #climatechange
Read 16 tweets

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