Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #fooledbyrandomness

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To the left, how both Nasrallah, his enemies, & journalists think Lebanese Politics should work.

To the right is how the protesters proved it works. Complex systems generatee spontaneous order. Progress lies in having NO leaders.
#لبنان_ينتفص
#Localism #LebaneseProtests
The problem with historical reporting is overestimation of agency: narratives require leaders so people are fooled by journos etc. about the exact process.

Same overestimation of agency as the one in #fooledbyrandomness
#لبنان_ينتفض
Over time for the sake of efficiency & owing to, say, preferential attachment, networks are pulled into the center, from unifom to power laws or maybe lognormal.
The one of the left collapses. Centralized systems end up collapsing after pseudostability
Explained in #TheBlackSwan
Read 7 tweets
"IQ" THREAD

"IQ" measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs.

1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on "WHY is he asking me that?", which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John)
2- It takes a certain type of person to waste intelligent concentration on classroom/academic problems. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation.

Some people can only focus on problems that are REAL, not fictional textbook ones.
3- Look at the hordes with "high IQ" (from measurement) who are failures in real world rather than the ~50% correlation between IQ and success in 1) salaried employment, 2) jobs that select for edjukashion.

Yuuge survivorship bias.

37 out of 38 PhDs in finance blew up in 1998!
Read 34 tweets
Statistically flawed statement: no such claims can be made under high variance power law.

#SkinintheGame: if @paulkrugman had his own $ at risk, he would have been blowup on bitcoin up >10^4% & eliminated from the ecology... or eliminated from the ecology before even bitcoin...
From work/discussion with @financequant: BTC doesn't even have a variance, steep power law.
3) To simplify, this is the #FooledbyRandomness effect: @paulkrugman is pontificating from NOISE, not signal, and the first thing one should teach students is to learn to make a difference between noise and signal.
Read 3 tweets

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