Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #forecasts

Most recents (6)

If you are at #RSS2021Conf this morning, check out our invited session on Contagious disease #statistics and #misinterpretation of #COVID dynamics and data with @AdamJKucharski and @AyisSalma
11:40am, Exchange 10
First speaker is @AyisSalma, reflecting on the subtle but important difference of what we think and what data are.
#COVID19 statistics are easily misinterpreted Image
Statistical anomalies in calculations of #COVID19 infections and deaths meant it appeared that no-one ever recovered!
And these figures influenced government #publichealth decisions Image
Read 11 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 11/03/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/11/02/dai…
Opinion | Why You Can’t Rely on Election Forecasts - The New York Times

nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opi…

#election #forecasts
To Make Better Decisions. Assign Rights, Describe Processes, Set… | by Thomas P Seager, PhD | Morozko Method | Nov, 2020 | Medium

medium.com/morozko-method…

#method #decisions #bureaucracy
Read 8 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 6/15/2020-2

greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/06/15/dai…

Can asymptomatic people spread coronavirus? The confusing WHO remark, explained - Vox

vox.com/2020/6/10/2128…

#asymptomatic #spread
Mutated coronavirus shows significant boost in infectivity | Scripps Research

scripps.edu/news-and-event…

#mutations #coronavirus
Modern monetary theory says that the state has the ability to create and maintain the value in money and most left of centre economists appear to be repulsed by that

taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/06/1…

#money #MMT #value
Read 11 tweets
‘Tis the season of prognostication, and in an age of one-word answers to complex questions, we’ve also witnessed a great deal of #hedged-language #forecasts ending in the suffix “ish,” so not to be outdone, we’d say that 2020 is looking rather 1.8ish!
What on Earth could this mean? We would suggest, firstly; that rather than seeing a calamitous #recession in 2020, or a strong cyclical resurgence of #growth, we instead think that real #GDP growth is likely to moderate slightly to around 1.8%, its average level since 2005. Image
Further, over the next year, we think that #CorePCE #inflation may firm somewhat to around 1.8%, which is just above the average level for the measure over the past 15 years. Image
Read 5 tweets
THREAD.

1/ I was looking through twitter today and saw how much people mistrust forecasts of the election. We are pretty bad at thinking probabilistically and it seems as if once a candidate is somewhere over 60% we default to assuming they are 100% to win
2/ so if they lose we declare the forecast (or the polls) wrong! This is, of course, aided and abetted by a lot of pundits. It’s very frustrating because I am not sure how we can fix the problem.
3/ Certainty is what people want. They don’t want to hear that one candidate is 25% and the other 75%. They want to know for sure. And the pundits are often more than happy to give them what they want, offering more certainty than the data offers.
Read 20 tweets

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