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At #FreudenBrexit earlier I was asked for improbable Brexit scenarios... things that are just barely plausible.
So far I came up with 4...
So far I came up with 4...
- May, before going to the Palace to resign, writes to Tusk to revoke Article 50
(see point 1 here: blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/03… )
(see point 1 here: blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/03… )
- Johnson, having been appointed PM, wants to keep the job. So promises a #PeoplesVote rather than going for a General Election
Thanks for discussions at #FreudenBrexit with Patricia Conlan (University of Limerick), @sirgrahamwatson and @StefanMBuettner, I have made a new, partial #BrexitDiagram - dedicated to one thing:
What will happen week commencing 23 July?
What will happen week commencing 23 July?
That week the Tories announce who wins their leadership (pretty certainly Johnson), and May is due to resign.
But will Johnson be able to command a majority?
Will there be a No Confidence Vote?
And if Johnson doesn't command a majority, what does the Queen do?
But will Johnson be able to command a majority?
Will there be a No Confidence Vote?
And if Johnson doesn't command a majority, what does the Queen do?
Also - as @jonlis1 and others have argued - this is all a question of when the crisis deepens, not if. If it doesn't happen now in July, it will in September.
My chances Johnson sees it through to the summer: 26%
My chances Johnson sees it through to the summer: 26%
