Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ga14
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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Part of the reason no Democrat can beat Marjorie Taylor Greene in #GA14 is that anti-January 6th rhetoric unfortunately doesn't work in a seat where half of the voters were at the insurrection themselves.
I wish I could recall where I got this from, but I don't remember if this is one of those things I made up with @Thorongil16 on one of our zooms or if I saw it late one night while scrolling my feed.
for what it's worth I actually think that Marjorie Taylor Greene will end up performing above average relative to expectations *after controlling for fundraising* in this cycle. On a related note, I really need to remember to clip fundraising for our House WAR model this year.
THREAD: Since @BenSpielberg has decided to post a whole thread criticizing my fundraising philosophy, allow me to once again explain how it works. 1/
There's a debate about whether Dems should focus entirely on "swing states/districts" or if they should take "compete everywhere!" You don't want to abandon Dems living in deep red states/districts, but you also don't want to flush millions down the drain on no-chance races. 2/
The poster child for this debate in 2020 was Amy McGrath in Kentucky. Something like $90 million was dumped on her race only for her to lose by nearly 20 points. That $90M could've gone to hundreds of other state/federal races which had a better chance. 3/
@GGGiantGinger @MacFarlaneNews Okay, Texas uses the open primary system.
You should consider which party dominates your gerrymandered district(s) and vote in that party’s primary to maximize your influence in choosing a candidate likely to win in the General Election in November.
1/
You should consider which party dominates your gerrymandered district(s) and vote in that party’s primary to maximize your influence in choosing a candidate likely to win in the General Election in November.
1/
@GGGiantGinger @MacFarlaneNews Just as an example, consider the 2021 Special Election in Texas #TX06, which uses different rules.
The top 2 candidates in the runoff were both Republicans.
Trump endorsed one; many people of good will came together to vote for the other, who won.
2/
The top 2 candidates in the runoff were both Republicans.
Trump endorsed one; many people of good will came together to vote for the other, who won.
2/
@GGGiantGinger @MacFarlaneNews I’ll be honest:
He’s still a conservative Republican reactionary, but in politics, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Similarly, voters used North Carolina’s semi-open primary to switch to Unaffiliated to get a Republican ballot to vote Against Madison Cawthorn in #NC11.
3/
He’s still a conservative Republican reactionary, but in politics, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Similarly, voters used North Carolina’s semi-open primary to switch to Unaffiliated to get a Republican ballot to vote Against Madison Cawthorn in #NC11.
3/
Primary night: Former President Donald Trump was dealt a blow in Georgia's gubernatorial primary as incumbent Gov Brian Kemp won decisively, trouncing former Sen. David Perdue, who had the money and backing of Trump and built his campaign on the false claim that 2020 was rigged.
Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s secretary of state who was attacked by Trump, is holding onto a slight lead against U.S. Rep. Jody Hice, barely crossing the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff.
In #GA14, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene defeated her Republican challenger Jennifer Strahan by a comfortable 70-30 margin.
@alexplitsas And, until that happens, citizens should think strategically when registering and voting.
In a closed primary state like Florida or New York, register in the dominant party to vote in the primary that decides the election.
1/
In a closed primary state like Florida or New York, register in the dominant party to vote in the primary that decides the election.
1/
@alexplitsas In a semi-open primary state like North Carolina, register as Unaffiliated.
In an open primary state like Georgia, think strategically on Primary Day.
For example, on May 24 in #GA14, get a Republican ballot to vote for @StrahanJennifer to dump MTG.
@DemsForStrahan
2/2
In an open primary state like Georgia, think strategically on Primary Day.
For example, on May 24 in #GA14, get a Republican ballot to vote for @StrahanJennifer to dump MTG.
@DemsForStrahan
2/2
@ngags52 @BLegoat @CheeseyPrince @joncoopertweets Actually, @GeorgiaDemocrat in #GA14, and @coloradodems in #CO03, in accordance with state law, should switch to Republican or whatever to vote Against incumbents in the Republican primary, which will decide the election in those GOP-dominated districts.
1/
1/
@ngags52 @BLegoat @CheeseyPrince @joncoopertweets @GeorgiaDemocrat @coloradodems @Marcus4Georgia and @Holly_4Congress are grifters who are lying to their donors about the Democratic primary.
Neither will win in November.
Does @staceyabrams care?
Does @ReverendWarnock care?
Out-of-state donors don’t mind uphill fighting, but without lying.
2/2
Neither will win in November.
Does @staceyabrams care?
Does @ReverendWarnock care?
Out-of-state donors don’t mind uphill fighting, but without lying.
2/2
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
I see a lot of convos today about Marjorie Taylor Greene's past controversial comments, thanks to @CNN & @mmfa
McCarthy told @axios he is disturbed/plans to speak with her
This narrative misses crucial context: NONE of this is new to political observers/GOP leaders. A thread >>
McCarthy told @axios he is disturbed/plans to speak with her
This narrative misses crucial context: NONE of this is new to political observers/GOP leaders. A thread >>
On June 17 ( a week after the June 9 #GA14 primary but well before an Aug 11 runoff) @MZanona & I reported on a trove of her racist/Islamophobic/QAnon comments
MTG is a product of MAGA internet. She built a following posting hours of videos of this stuff
politico.com/news/2020/06/1…
MTG is a product of MAGA internet. She built a following posting hours of videos of this stuff
politico.com/news/2020/06/1…
Among the worst MTG comments:
She called the '18 midterms “an Islamic invasion of our government”
She said Dems are “trying to keep the black people in a modern-day form of slavery”
“The most mistreated group of people in the United States today are white males"
She called the '18 midterms “an Islamic invasion of our government”
She said Dems are “trying to keep the black people in a modern-day form of slavery”
“The most mistreated group of people in the United States today are white males"
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ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
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ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
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ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
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#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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Hey #GEORGIA #FlipTheSenate
Say Bye Loeffler
Democratic Challenger
RAPHAEL WARNOCK
@ReverendWarnock
Donate secure.actblue.com/donate/warnock…
*Jungle Primary: Candidate who gets 50% of votes wins
Current polls show Rev. Warnock at 31%, GOP Loeffler at 23%//GOP Collins 22%; Dem Lieberman 9%
Say Bye Loeffler
Democratic Challenger
RAPHAEL WARNOCK
@ReverendWarnock
Donate secure.actblue.com/donate/warnock…
*Jungle Primary: Candidate who gets 50% of votes wins
Current polls show Rev. Warnock at 31%, GOP Loeffler at 23%//GOP Collins 22%; Dem Lieberman 9%
Hey #GEORGIA
David Perdue must go!!
Help #FlipTheSenate
Democratic Challenger
JON OSSOFF
@ossoff
electjon.com
Anyone can
Donate here:
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#Senate2020
THREAD #23GOP
#FlipTheSenate
All #23GOP here:
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David Perdue must go!!
Help #FlipTheSenate
Democratic Challenger
JON OSSOFF
@ossoff
electjon.com
Anyone can
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House clerk reads resignation of Rep. Tom Graves (R-GA) from the House:"I hereby submit my resignation effective 11:59pm on Sunday,October 4, 2020 as United States representative of the 14th District of GA." He was 1st elected in 2010 & was not running for re-election this fall.
"One of the last votes I cast as a US Rep was in favor of the bipartisan reforms crafted by Select Cmte on the Modernization of Congress,which I've been honored to help lead.I can think of no better way to leave the People's House."-@RepTomGraves (R-#GA14)
c-span.org/video/?c491199…
c-span.org/video/?c491199…
Resignation letters by Georgia GOP Rep. Tom Graves to Speaker Pelosi and GA Governor Kemp from Congress are printed in the Congressional Record. His resignation from the House is effective Sunday at 11:59pm.
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50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
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ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
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Update Sep 12
mega-THREAD
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Update Sep 12
mega-THREAD
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Hey #GEORGIA
David Perdue must go!!
Help #FlipTheSenate
Democratic Challenger
JON OSSOFF
@ossoff
electjon.com
Anyone can
Donate here:
secure.actblue.com/donate/ms_hp_o…
#Senate2020
THREAD #23GOP
#FlipTheSenate
All #23GOP here:
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David Perdue must go!!
Help #FlipTheSenate
Democratic Challenger
JON OSSOFF
@ossoff
electjon.com
Anyone can
Donate here:
secure.actblue.com/donate/ms_hp_o…
#Senate2020
THREAD #23GOP
#FlipTheSenate
All #23GOP here:
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Hey #GEORGIA #FlipTheSenate
Bye Kelly Loeffler
Dems, Nov 3 Jungle Primary
D Jackson
@MayorDAJackson
J James
@JJames4GA
T Shealey
@TamaraJohnson-Shealey
M Lieberman
@LiebermanForGa
J Slade
@DAYDREAMER2640
ETarver
@tarver_ed
R Warnock
@ReverendWarnock
R Winfield
@WinfieldForUS
Bye Kelly Loeffler
Dems, Nov 3 Jungle Primary
D Jackson
@MayorDAJackson
J James
@JJames4GA
T Shealey
@TamaraJohnson-Shealey
M Lieberman
@LiebermanForGa
J Slade
@DAYDREAMER2640
ETarver
@tarver_ed
R Warnock
@ReverendWarnock
R Winfield
@WinfieldForUS
#GA14 GOP Rep. Tom Graves, who is not running for re-election this fall, announces today: "I intend to step down from Congress and begin the next chapter of life in October."
2020 #GA14 Democratic candidate Kevin Van Ausdal announced today he's quitting the race against GOP candidate Marjorie Taylor Greene to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Tom Graves.
2020 #GA14 GOP candidate Marjorie Taylor Greene
on her Democratic opponent Kevin Van Ausdal dropping out of the race today.
on her Democratic opponent Kevin Van Ausdal dropping out of the race today.
Rep. Tom Graves is resigning early, and the Democratic nominee for the #GA14 seat abandoned the race, leaving QAnon candidate Marjorie Greene a clear path. Local Ds are baffled. “We’ll figure out something – hopefully,” says one D county chair. ajc.com/politics/democ…
Deputy Secretary of State Jordan Fuchs:
“The law is clear. Mr. Van Ausdal can withdraw his candidacy or remain on the ballot. He cannot be replaced.” #gapol ajc.com/politics/democ…
“The law is clear. Mr. Van Ausdal can withdraw his candidacy or remain on the ballot. He cannot be replaced.” #gapol ajc.com/politics/democ…
.@KevinVanAusdal's campaign aide said the candidate dropped the race after his wife served him with divorce papers and he was planning to move to move to Indiana. “We told him there’s no wiggle room here.” #gapol ajc.com/politics/democ…
Republican @mtgreenee’s Democratic opponent @KevinVanAusdal just dropped out of the race, citing “personal and family reasons.” I just contacted his spokesman, who has no further comment. #gapol #ga14
No immediate comment from state Democrats - who are surprised by the move - and elections officials about what happens next. Van Ausdal isn’t just dropping out of the race - he’s leaving Georgia. #gapol
"We thank Mr. Van Ausdal for his service and send him our condolences in this difficult time,” said @mf_chambers of @GeorgiaDemocrat party. “We are calling on the Secretary of State to disqualify him from the ballot and allow the DPG to name a replacement as soon as possible."
Want to check out all Democratic Candidates?
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& follow @NDLB2020
Pages on the #PostcardsforAmerica website with all Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
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postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
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& follow @NDLB2020
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
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ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
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[THREAD]
Cori Bush defied the odds and defeated a political dynasty.
Jamaal Bowman won with 55.4%
We’ve had so many historic progressive wins, but it doesn’t end here! Let’s get progressives like those listed below in office!
Screw “Blue Wave”, lets make a #ProgressiveFlood!
Cori Bush defied the odds and defeated a political dynasty.
Jamaal Bowman won with 55.4%
We’ve had so many historic progressive wins, but it doesn’t end here! Let’s get progressives like those listed below in office!
Screw “Blue Wave”, lets make a #ProgressiveFlood!
1. @EdMarkey
Running for Senate: #Massachusetts
Supports: the Green New Deal and Medicare For All
His primary Election Day is September 1st
#ProgressiveFlood
For more info go to: edmarkey.com
Running for Senate: #Massachusetts
Supports: the Green New Deal and Medicare For All
His primary Election Day is September 1st
#ProgressiveFlood
For more info go to: edmarkey.com
2. @AlexBMorse
District: #MA01
Supports: Medicare For All, Universal Basic Income, $15 Minimum Wage, Cancel Student Debt, and Free College Tuition.
His primary Election Day is September 1st.
#ProgressiveFlood
For more info go to: alexmorseforcongress.com
District: #MA01
Supports: Medicare For All, Universal Basic Income, $15 Minimum Wage, Cancel Student Debt, and Free College Tuition.
His primary Election Day is September 1st.
#ProgressiveFlood
For more info go to: alexmorseforcongress.com
House Rs are no longer w/in range of taking back the majority. But if there's a silver lining, it's that they're poised to elect far more women than they did in 2018, when their female ranks plummeted from 22 to 13 (!).
The Jolt: Some victory celebrations are “all is water under the bridge” affairs. Then there are the scorched-earth parties. Marjorie Taylor Greene, she of the QAnon conspiracies, used napalm last night and into the morning. #gapol #ga14 ajc.com/politics/polit…
More jolt: “If she wins the general, Republicans should not seat her in Congress," says @amandacarpenter. We also wonder what committee assignments will go to a rookie Republican who calls Speaker Nancy Pelosi a “bitch” during her victory speech. #gapol ajc.com/politics/polit…
@amandacarpenter More Jolt: Georgia held one round of the Democratic presidential primary debates. Why not a general election showdown? House Speaker David Ralston wants a September debate in GA. #gapol ajc.com/politics/polit…
Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene defeated John Cowan in #GA14 primary runoff election per AP and will face Democratic nominee Kevin Van Ausdal in fall election. Winner will succeed retiring GOP Rep. Tom Graves,first elected to Congress in 2010 for northwestern GA Rome area seat.
DCCC Chair Bustos on #GA14 House race: "Marjorie Taylor Greene is a next-generation Steve King who is now the Republican nominee for Congress because Minority Leader McCarthy refused to meaningfully oppose her racist candidacy."
POTUS on #GA14 House GOP nominee
