Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #gbpusd

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Hello everyone,

1/23 This thread is dedicated to @SantiagoAuFund - Dollar Milkshake Theory.
I thought it's a good idea to break down the "ingredients" in DXY milkshake, but from TA only perspective.
Let's dive in 🧵👇:

Start with the video below first.

2/23 Good, now that you have watched the video I want to remind everyone that "The Dollar Milkshake Theory" is a THEORY not a certainty that those events will happen and that all #USD scenarios will play out.

Same thing for my TA breakdown, so take it with a grain of salt.
3/23 So everyone has a clear understanding of the #DXY , here is a quick explanation below:

The U.S. Dollar Index consists of 6 foreign currencies.:

Euro (EUR), JapaneseYen (JPY), BritishPound (GBP), Canadiandollar (CAD), SwedishKrona (SEK), Swiss Franc (CHF).
Read 23 tweets
Macro Analysis of FX. Putting my erstwhile FX trader hat on to analyze what is happening with global markets.

I see the #CrudeOil move, #EURUSD move as a flight to safety move into USD.

I'm trying to explain the causation of flow in below thread 🧵

What all is losing ground against #USD?
#CrudeOil 🔻8.32%
#EURUSD 🔻1.77%
#GBPUSD 🔻1.49%
#Gold 🔻2.1%
#BTC 🔻2.7%

All these are being sold against USD. The money doesn't leave the system. So where does it go?

In risk-off environment it goes to safe havens such as:
#USD, #CHF, #JPY, Long-Dated US bonds (30Y) & #GOLD.

While some G10 FX pairs have lost upwards of 1.5%, both safe-haven currencies of JPY(🔻0.11%) and CHF (🔻0.89%) are seen relatively stable when compared to other G10.

US30Y Yields are down (bonds are up) by🔻4%.
Read 7 tweets
First up let me just say, I cannot predict the future...

I can offer 12+ years of market experience & nothing more

The $Dxy has positioned itself for a humongous Bullish move...

Major multi year & even multi decade #Dxy breakouts are happening *Right Now*

Charts Below 📈🧵👇
Lets start by looking at the $Dxy itself (Monthly Chart)

On this time frame we are close to breaking out of a 7 year consolidation (when the 2015 rally stalled out)

This failure to make a low, followed by a break higher, tends to create a large amount of short covering...
As shorts close out positions on the breakout & new traders add long positions, explosive moves tend to follow

These are the mechanics behind what some traders refer to as a "Wave 3"

To me it's just mechanics of a successful breakout, but "Wave 3" if it helps understanding...
Read 25 tweets
Je prends moi-même tous les signaux que je donne à mes abonnés.

3 exemples :


#PinkStarMoney 💰
En cours….
Read 6 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s highlights
#EURUSD has surged higher to our recovery target of 1.1950/92 – the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 fall, mid-March highs and 55-day average and our bias remains to look for the rebound to ideally end here.
Credit Suisse 2/5: #USDJPY has broken support from the 23.6% retracement of the Q1 rally at 108.99, which is seen exposing more important support at 108.55/33. Failure to hold this latter area would see a top complete.
Credit Suisse 3/5: #EURGBP not maintains a base above .8643/65 as well as a bullish “reversal week” and we look for a deeper recovery to .8732 initially, then .8851/61.

#GBPUSD above 1.3783 would see a minor base complete to suggest the trend is shifting sideways.
Read 5 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s #Forex highlights
#EURGBP not only maintains a base above .8643/65 but the close above .8574 on Friday has also seen a bullish “reversal week” established to reinforce the likelihood for a deeper recovery to .8732 initially, then .8851/61.
Credit Suisse 2/5: #GBPUSD maintains a bearish “reversal day” to keep the risk lower in its range with supp seen at 1.3641, then 1.3514.

#EURCHF continues to weigh heavily on the bottom of its recent range at 1.1004/1.0994, below which would confirm a top & a correction lower.
Credit Suisse 3/5: #EURUSD continues to struggle to clear its 200-day average at 1.1896 and the current strength stays seen as a temporary and corrective move higher.
Read 5 tweets
UOB Group 1/4: #EURUSD: Further sideway-trading would not be surprising even though the slightly firmed underlying tone suggests a higher range of 1.2030/1.2085.

#GBPUSD: underlying tone still appears to be positive & there is chance for GBP to edge above 1.3760. That said, next
UOB 2/4: resist at 1.3800 is not expected to come into the picture. On downside,1.3680 low is acting as a solid support and is unlikely to come under threat (1.3710 is already quite a strong level).

#AUDUSD: Upward momentum is beginning to improve and AUD could edge above 0.7730
UOB 3/4: For today, next resist at 0.7765 is likely out of reach. Supp is at 0.7685 followed by 0.7660.

#NZDUSD: Upward momentum has improved & risk is for NZD to move higher. 0.7250 is a solid resist & NZD may not be able to maintain a foothold above this level. Supp is at 0.72
Read 4 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/4: Today’s #Forex highlights:
#GBPUSD has pushed to a new high for the year and above trend resistance at 1.3788, which should reinforce the existing major base for a move to 1.4000, ahead of 1.4302/77 and eventually our core objective at 1.49/1.51.
Credit Suisse 2/4: #EURGBP maintains a bearish “outside day” to reinforce its existing large bearish “head & shoulders” top and we stay bearish for .8609.

#USDJPY has seen a decisive rejection as expected from our first objective of the 200-day average at 105.57 and we see scope
Credit Suisse 3/4: for a deeper setback to the near-term uptrend at 104.20.

#EURUSD maintains its recovery after the bullish “reversal day” from our 1.1945/14 target – the 23.6% retracement of entire 2020/2021 rally – & we continue to look for a recovery from here to test 1.2104
Read 4 tweets
OCBC Bank 1/5: #EURUSD Downside risks averted? Choppy action left the $EURUSD still anchored on either side of the 1.2050 level. Buoyant early Tue, but the 1.2080/90 resistance still intact. Despite negative lead from
fundamentals (German lockdowns etc),
OCBC Bank 2/5: the technical picture may turn positive if the 1.2000 level is not breached again soon.

#USDJPY Upside momentum eased. $USDJPY pull-back extended towards 105.00 overnight after an initial attempt to move towards 105.80. The stalling of the 10y UST yield at 1.20%
OCBC Bank 3/5: may have contributed to the implicit heaviness. The risk-on environment should provide some, albeit limited, supported. Will not turn negative on this pair unless 104.80/00 is breached.

#AUDUSD Bearish bias erased. Riskon and firm commodity complex spurred $AUDUSD
Read 5 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s #Forex highlights:
#USDJPY remains capped as expected at our first objective of 200-day average and November high at 105.59/75 and a pause is looked for here. Big picture,with a bullish “wedge” & “reversal month” in place we continue to look for a break
Credit Suisse 2/5: in due course, with the “wedge objective” at 106.95/107.05.

#AUDUSD reverted sharply higher from the 55-day average, posting a bullish “reversal day” and is now pressuring against the “neckline” to its top at .7683.
CS 3/5: #EURUSD has posted a bullish “reversal day” from our 1.1945/14 tget – 23.6% retraceme of entire 2020/21 rally – & we continue to look for a near-term recovery from here.
We continue to watch #EUR in outright terms closely though as an important top may be close to forming
Read 5 tweets
@borsaninizinden Geç de olsa #DXY için notlarımı siteye yükledim.…

Pariteler hakkındaki yorumumu ise gün içinde bu başlığın altında paylaşırım.
@borsaninizinden Merhaba İbrahim Bey, sizin bu konudaki tecrübe ve birikiminiz kadar sizi izleyenlerin de katkısı olur diye pariteler hakkındaki görüşlerimi buraya eklemeyi düşündüm.

Ancak sayfanızı meşgul ederse kusura bakmayın şimdiden. Buyrun başlayalım:
@borsaninizinden 1) Benim konuya yaklaşımım farklı olduğu için belki farklı fikirler de çıkar hem.

Ancak yeni katılanlar için bu tür pozisyon paylaşımı yapmadığımı, sadece DXY ile ilgili çalışmamı tamamladığı için bunları yazdığımı baştan belirteyim. Sonra yanlış anlaşılma olmasın. 😊
Read 15 tweets
Im going to give you a free trade opportunity today but first a free lesson in market observation....
Why are the bonds offering, despite the aggressive sell-off in risk? If you can answer this then the easiest trade opportunity will present itself...
I will give you a clue......what is the play for bonds if the democrats clean sweep the election next week?
Ok so clean sweep for democrats and we have massive steepner in US curve. WHy. Because stimulus will come thick and fast. Note the curve steepened aggressively at start of Oct when the biden/trump spread widened. It reversed at start of week but this was opp to put steepener
Read 9 tweets
"Something is Breaking!" and we are going to see decades worth of developments in the span of few weeks or months. #Coronavirus has been the trigger of the #Deflation, I have been expecting for so long. It is now here! Stay tuned for #HZupdates to get my view on markets
"Something is Breaking" has been taken from…. We are observing an extreme USD Shortage developing fast and it is going to cause a wild #DXY rally the coming weeks & months. Chart of FRA/OIS provides overview of the severity of the developing USD shortage
My #DXY model supports this macro outlook exactly. Correction from late 2019 has concluded and DXY will now explode higher in 5 impulsive waves higher to target ~111. I expect this move to reach target ~Mid-2020. The consequences of a strong DXY will be wide-spread. #Deflation
Read 15 tweets
🛡️Dayanak varlıgı #GBPUSD olan varantlardır.
🛡️Vade sonu uzlaşma fiyatı #TCMB tarafından saat 15:30 itibarıyla belirlenen gösterge niteliğindeki #Pound - #AmerikanDoları çapraz kurudur. ⬇️
#VarantAkademi'de #varant türlerini tanıtmaya devam ediyoruz. Bugün #GBPUSD varantları 🤔
🛡️Yatırımcıya ödenecek tutar kullanım fiyatıyla dayanak varlık vade sonu uzlaşı fiyatı arasındaki farkın çarpan(5) ve 15:30 TCMB Türk Lirası - Amerkan Doları alış kuru ile çarpılmasıyla elde edilir.
🛡️#GBPUSD varantlarının son işlem günü vade sonu tarihinden bir önceki iş günüdür.
🛡️Vade sonu sonrasında 3. iş günü değerde (karda) biten varantlara ödeme yapılır.
Read 3 tweets
Daily Charts in Currency Markets cheered #EUROUSD #GBPUSD. The two are firm thanks to UK Election Exit Polls favoring comfortable victory for the Tories.
Wkly Chart #GBPUSD.
Wkly Chart #EUROUSD is that a Bootm or will tank further is to be seen.
Read 3 tweets
Hi #fintwit 😎 We are approaching a watershed moment in markets. Final deflationary phase of Kondratiev's winter is about to play out. Huge implications for #EUR, #Gold, #SP500, #DXY etc. I have some new interesting followers - hence something extra in this week's #HZupdates
#Kondratiev's winter is a period where #Velocity of Money drops which creates a disinflationary economic environment, where growth is subdued due to #debt levels. Since ~2000 we have been in this winter - and are still to see a range of "major economic events" unfold #HZupdates
In fact, we have never left the #Financial #Crisis. We have only been bouncing in the great "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis" of this #Kondratiev's winter. This can be observed from the #Deflation Gauges #Copper, #XAU, AUD, EUR. We are about to see wave C develop #HZupdates
Read 21 tweets
...capito perché non se ne uscirà mai..?!?!
Dollar Shortage #FED
...le due chart "chiave"
Seguire #Fed fund rate futures e Eurodollar Futures oltre al libor è l'unica cosa che conta davvero e che impatta l'economia globale e la natura dei mercato aldilà degli algos telecomandati...
Libor up by 0.35 bps
Libor at 2.61813%
SPOT LOIS at 28.513
Read 135 tweets
riprendiamo questo discorso...
la "comica" corsa delle HFT firms ad avvicinarsi quanto più possibile ai server del CME (futures exchange)...… parlate di mercati, cari i miei governanti, almeno cercate di conoscerne la struttura...ancora con il "floor"
6 maggio del Grecia è al centro dell'attenzione mediatica mondiale e da li a poco la #ECB inizierà a comprare debito greco via SMP... ma quel giorno verrà ricordato come la massima espressione dei "fake markets" moderni, dominati dagli algos HFT…
Read 120 tweets

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