Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #gdpnow

Most recents (4)

The #Fed #pivot talk has intensified lately.

Sth possibly breaking in the #UK, European financial system ( $CS, $DB...), #RBA pivoting by hiking less than expected, higher financial risk in the #US...

Should the #Fed #pivot and why?

Let's demystify all this.

A thread.

1/25
Those that follow me know I've been calling the #Fed to #pivot for quite a while.

Ever since mid-May it's been clear to me the #US #economy is in a #recession which should prompt the #Fed to #pivot in Sep.

And every important economic indicator warranted the #Fed #pivot.

2/25
But the #Fed decided to turn the blind eye to the #economy in an effort to try to regain some of the credibility they lost last yr by "transitory" talk.

So instead of amending things, they have made another policy error.

Here is more about this:


3/25
Read 25 tweets
Welcome to the Most Anticipated Recession in History - One data point from the Fed’s officialdom confirms the United States is in a technical recession and heading for a potential hard landing - by @TraderStef #GDP #Recession #DemandDestruction #TaperCaper crushthestreet.com/articles/break… Image
Read 10 tweets
One reason why the Q1 GDP numbers don't necessarily mean a recession is because "senior economic reporters" like @steveliesman say that things are fine rather than hype the bad number which in itself (the hype) would kill consumer mood; then their spending and then the economy. Image
This is the beauty of having a Dem in the White House because if this bad number were with a GOPer, every person who follows the news would be driven into a panic how the economy contracted despite low interest rates; massive federal spending and a ballooned Fed balance sheet.
Steve's hot take about the GDP for the current quarter (April-May-June) ignores how energy costs and rising interest rates in April are stepping on the economy in ways not seen in Q1. But by media putting on a nice face about the weak economy they can keep things going.
Read 31 tweets
Just heard someone on the radio saying (I think) that the 32% annualized GDP gain forecast for 3Q by @AtlantaFed #GDPNow would wipe out the 31.7% 2Q decline. It doesn't work that way! Would take a 46.4% real GDP increase to get us back to 1Q level, 54.1% to get back to 4Q 2019
To put it in non-annualized terms (which sound far less ridiculous): real GDP fell 1.3% in first quarter, 9.1% in second, would take an 11.4% gain to get us back where we started
I really hope I did the math right on these
Read 3 tweets

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