Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #gdpnow
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The #Fed #pivot talk has intensified lately.
Sth possibly breaking in the #UK, European financial system ( $CS, $DB...), #RBA pivoting by hiking less than expected, higher financial risk in the #US...
Should the #Fed #pivot and why?
Let's demystify all this.
A thread.
1/25
Sth possibly breaking in the #UK, European financial system ( $CS, $DB...), #RBA pivoting by hiking less than expected, higher financial risk in the #US...
Should the #Fed #pivot and why?
Let's demystify all this.
A thread.
1/25
Welcome to the Most Anticipated Recession in History - One data point from the Fed’s officialdom confirms the United States is in a technical recession and heading for a potential hard landing - by @TraderStef #GDP #Recession #DemandDestruction #TaperCaper crushthestreet.com/articles/break… 
One reason why the Q1 GDP numbers don't necessarily mean a recession is because "senior economic reporters" like @steveliesman say that things are fine rather than hype the bad number which in itself (the hype) would kill consumer mood; then their spending and then the economy.
This is the beauty of having a Dem in the White House because if this bad number were with a GOPer, every person who follows the news would be driven into a panic how the economy contracted despite low interest rates; massive federal spending and a ballooned Fed balance sheet.
Steve's hot take about the GDP for the current quarter (April-May-June) ignores how energy costs and rising interest rates in April are stepping on the economy in ways not seen in Q1. But by media putting on a nice face about the weak economy they can keep things going.
Just heard someone on the radio saying (I think) that the 32% annualized GDP gain forecast for 3Q by @AtlantaFed #GDPNow would wipe out the 31.7% 2Q decline. It doesn't work that way! Would take a 46.4% real GDP increase to get us back to 1Q level, 54.1% to get back to 4Q 2019
To put it in non-annualized terms (which sound far less ridiculous): real GDP fell 1.3% in first quarter, 9.1% in second, would take an 11.4% gain to get us back where we started
I really hope I did the math right on these
