Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #globalslowdown
Most recents (7)
Global Business Confidence 1/4
[flash Manufacturing PMI]
• US 50.0 120M low
• Japan 49.6 tick up
• Germany 43.1 84M low
• France 50.0 3M low
• Eurozone 46.4 79M low
FED to cut, ECB to cut + QE, BoJ remains QQE #GlobalSlowDown
[flash Manufacturing PMI]
• US 50.0 120M low
• Japan 49.6 tick up
• Germany 43.1 84M low
• France 50.0 3M low
• Eurozone 46.4 79M low
FED to cut, ECB to cut + QE, BoJ remains QQE #GlobalSlowDown
2/4 US flash M.PMI vs markets
• 50.0 10Y low
• -0.6 MoM
• -5.3 YoY
• heavyweight on Global PMI index
• 50.0 10Y low
• -0.6 MoM
• -5.3 YoY
• heavyweight on Global PMI index
3/4 Germany flash M.PMI vs markets
• 43.1 84M low
• -1.9 MoM
• -13.8 YoY
vs DAX and BUNDs YoY
• 43.1 84M low
• -1.9 MoM
• -13.8 YoY
vs DAX and BUNDs YoY
recap monthly MT GLOBAL M.PMI Jun2019 surveys - Business Confidence vs Markets thread 1/n
• most countries continue to weaken = #GlobalSlowDown
• Global index falls to 80M low
• market prices global central bank renew /continue dovish stance
• first chart: "breadth"
• most countries continue to weaken = #GlobalSlowDown
• Global index falls to 80M low
• market prices global central bank renew /continue dovish stance
• first chart: "breadth"
2/n Global M.PMI DM vs EM
• Global 49.6 80M low
• DM 49.5 80M low
• EM 49.6 36M low
all now < 50
(GDP weighted calculations)
• Global 49.6 80M low
• DM 49.5 80M low
• EM 49.6 36M low
all now < 50
(GDP weighted calculations)
3/n Global / DM / EM 5Y rolling pctl and Freight costs BDI YoY
• everyone expects global flush of liquidity, rate cuts, possible QE, to quickly stimulate way ahead of lurking recessions ?
• everyone expects global flush of liquidity, rate cuts, possible QE, to quickly stimulate way ahead of lurking recessions ?
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly recap wk26 as of 28Jun19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n
• mixed week, but EoM EoQ EoHY reshuffling, window dressing RiskOn momentum continues overall as Creditspreads tighter, US stocks breadth better, Vola below avg and big hope priced in for FED cuts
• mixed week, but EoM EoQ EoHY reshuffling, window dressing RiskOn momentum continues overall as Creditspreads tighter, US stocks breadth better, Vola below avg and big hope priced in for FED cuts
2/n Global Markets performance MoM June 2019
• ~90% of global stocks green
• all US sectors green
• US$ retreated (ahead of FED cuts)
• Govt bonds soared in disinflation
• Credits tighter
• weak US$ helped commodities
• ~90% of global stocks green
• all US sectors green
• US$ retreated (ahead of FED cuts)
• Govt bonds soared in disinflation
• Credits tighter
• weak US$ helped commodities
3/n Global Markets YTD
• Global Risk rallied on verbal global dovish central banks
• Global bonds rallied on global slowdown
• Global Risk rallied on verbal global dovish central banks
• Global bonds rallied on global slowdown
ZEW SURVEY CONFIDENCE COLLAPSED chart thread 1/8
• Financial analysts (not business survey) with renewed darker outlook for the global economy
• Tariff wars
• Export trouble
• Iran tension
• no-deal-BREXIT fear
#GlobalSlowDown continues
#DovishCentralBanks
• Financial analysts (not business survey) with renewed darker outlook for the global economy
• Tariff wars
• Export trouble
• Iran tension
• no-deal-BREXIT fear
#GlobalSlowDown continues
#DovishCentralBanks
2/8 ZEW June Survey
Analysts' Eurozone economic expectations collapsing to -20.2 ... and next Business outlook (IFO, ESI, PMI) will most likely weaken too
Analysts' Eurozone economic expectations collapsing to -20.2 ... and next Business outlook (IFO, ESI, PMI) will most likely weaken too
3/8 ZEW June Survey Eurozone economic expectations vs ECB Repo
• ZERO chance for rate hikes
• 100% chance for QE and rate cuts
• ZERO chance for rate hikes
• 100% chance for QE and rate cuts
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly recap wk21 as of 24May19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n
• RiskOFF
• stocks weaker
• Govt Bonds bid, Bull-flattening
• Credit spreads wider
• flash PMI: US 50.6 ! JP 49.6 EA 47.7 = JPM Global PMI exp < 50
• IFO weak
• PM May resigned
• RiskOFF
• stocks weaker
• Govt Bonds bid, Bull-flattening
• Credit spreads wider
• flash PMI: US 50.6 ! JP 49.6 EA 47.7 = JPM Global PMI exp < 50
• IFO weak
• PM May resigned
2/n Global Markets update wk21 YTD
3/n Global Markets update wk21 overview wk/mth/YTD/YoY
MT GLOBAL M.PMI monthly recap Feb2019 surveys thread 1/n
• MT Global M PMI 51.3 29M L
• JPM Global M PMI 50.6 32M L
• Breadth chart
• MT Global M PMI 51.3 29M L
• JPM Global M PMI 50.6 32M L
• Breadth chart
2/n Global M PMI world view
• Global 51.3 29M L
• DM 51.7 30M L
• EM 50.5 3M H
• F5 52.0 12M H
• Global 51.3 29M L
• DM 51.7 30M L
• EM 50.5 3M H
• F5 52.0 12M H
3/n Global M PMI "big 4"
• US 53.0 18M L
• EA 49.3 ! 68M L
• CHINA 49.9 3M H
• JAPAN 48.9 32M L
#GlobalSlowDown
#GlobalDovishCBs
• US 53.0 18M L
• EA 49.3 ! 68M L
• CHINA 49.9 3M H
• JAPAN 48.9 32M L
#GlobalSlowDown
#GlobalDovishCBs
Jan2019 M.PMI APAC so far
• JP 50.3 29M L
• AU 52.5 3M H
• CN NBR 𝟰𝟵.𝟱 up
• CN Cai 𝟰𝟴.𝟯 35M L
• IN 53.9 up
• ID 𝟰𝟵.𝟵 12M L
• SK 𝟰𝟴.𝟯 6M L
• TW 𝟰𝟳.𝟱 40M L
• PH 52.3 4M L
• TH 50.2
• VN 51.9 4M L
• JP 50.3 29M L
• AU 52.5 3M H
• CN NBR 𝟰𝟵.𝟱 up
• CN Cai 𝟰𝟴.𝟯 35M L
• IN 53.9 up
• ID 𝟰𝟵.𝟵 12M L
• SK 𝟰𝟴.𝟯 6M L
• TW 𝟰𝟳.𝟱 40M L
• PH 52.3 4M L
• TH 50.2
• VN 51.9 4M L
Jan2019 M.PMI Eurozone
• EA 50.5 50L
• DE 𝟰𝟵.𝟳 50L !
• FR 51.2 4H
• IT 𝟰𝟳.𝟴 85L !
• ES 52.4 up
• NL 55.1 28L
• AT 52.7 28L
• GR 53.7 3L
• IR 52.6 27L
#OGMT #GlobalSlowDown
• EA 50.5 50L
• DE 𝟰𝟵.𝟳 50L !
• FR 51.2 4H
• IT 𝟰𝟳.𝟴 85L !
• ES 52.4 up
• NL 55.1 28L
• AT 52.7 28L
• GR 53.7 3L
• IR 52.6 27L
#OGMT #GlobalSlowDown
Jan2019 M.PMI ex-EZ EMEA
• GB 52.8 3L
• CH 54.3 28L
• SE 51.5 29L
• NO 58.3 5H
• RU 50.9 4L
• HU 54.0
• PL 𝟰𝟴.𝟮 up
• CZ 𝟰𝟵.𝟬 72L
• TU 𝟰𝟰.𝟮 =
• ZA 50.5
#OGMT #GlobalSlowDown
• GB 52.8 3L
• CH 54.3 28L
• SE 51.5 29L
• NO 58.3 5H
• RU 50.9 4L
• HU 54.0
• PL 𝟰𝟴.𝟮 up
• CZ 𝟰𝟵.𝟬 72L
• TU 𝟰𝟰.𝟮 =
• ZA 50.5
#OGMT #GlobalSlowDown
