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A quick thread on how government expenditure is almost always paid for the people - in 1 of 3 ways
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #SriLanka #lka (#GotaGoGama #GoHomeRajapakshas #GotaGoHome2022 #අරගලයටජය for reach)
(1/9)
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #SriLanka #lka (#GotaGoGama #GoHomeRajapakshas #GotaGoHome2022 #අරගලයටජය for reach)
(1/9)
Whenever a government has an expense, it's paid in 1 of 3 ways.
1. Taxes
2. Loans
3. Money printing
Despite what it looks like, taxes are often the least anti-poor
(2/9)
1. Taxes
2. Loans
3. Money printing
Despite what it looks like, taxes are often the least anti-poor
(2/9)
Let's start with money printing - I explained it detail here but what matters is that excess printing just results in inflation.
(3/9)
(3/9)
Following import substitution, self-sufficiency, and local production didn't work out for Sri Lanka in the last 2 years. My longest 🧵yet to explain - promise it's worth it!
(1/30)
#SriLankaCrisis #SriLanka #lka (#GotaGoGama #GoHomeGota #GoHomeRajapakshas #අරගලයටජය for reach)
(1/30)
#SriLankaCrisis #SriLanka #lka (#GotaGoGama #GoHomeGota #GoHomeRajapakshas #අරගලයටජය for reach)
Now, these ideas are often "common sense". It sounds good - if we have a forex problem, lets stop importing and make it ourself! Lets be self-sufficent, why depend on others?
But econ ISN'T common sense - so let's go through my view on why these don't work.
(2/30)
But econ ISN'T common sense - so let's go through my view on why these don't work.
(2/30)
The main idea behind these is basically - produce goods locally, ideally goods we currently import, and sometimes, hope to export later.
So 3 broad benefits spoken of
1. Save/grow forex
2. Increase GDP
3. Have a backup if global trade fails
Lets go through all of these
(3/30)
So 3 broad benefits spoken of
1. Save/grow forex
2. Increase GDP
3. Have a backup if global trade fails
Lets go through all of these
(3/30)
මෙන්න සුමල් පෙරේරාගේ අද ගේම. පැටිකිරිය සහ පරණ කතා coming soon. If you are wondering why Johnston Fernando was one of just FOUR ministers kept in Cabinet, its to do one LAST GREAT HIGHWAY ROBBERY.
#SriLanka #GoHomeGota #GoHomeGota2022 #lka #GoHomeRajapakshas #GoHomeRajapaksas
#SriLanka #GoHomeGota #GoHomeGota2022 #lka #GoHomeRajapakshas #GoHomeRajapaksas
While the people are demanding that #RajapaksasGoHome, the family is trying to pull one major scam in close partnership with crony businessmen of the likes of Sumal Perera of Access Group. #GotaGoGama #අරගලයටජය #GotaGoHome #SLnews
The consortium, calling itself the Lanka Infrastructure Development Consortium (LIDC) comprises of Access Engineering, Maga Engineering, ICC, KDAW and NEM Construction.
සංගීතා ප්‍රකෝටිපතියන් වුනේ කොහොමද? ඒ රටේ මහජන මුදල් කොල්ලකෑමෙන් සහ මිනී මරමිනි.
අවස්තාවාදී නාරි මාංස
සංගීතාත් මහා රජානෝ අපිට එපා කියමින් පාරට බස ඇත. රැවටීමට පෙර පැටිකිරිය දැනගෙන සිටීම වටී. @SiyathaFM @SiyathaNewsLive @HiruGossip @lankacnews @ChamuSOnline
අවස්තාවාදී නාරි මාංස
සංගීතාත් මහා රජානෝ අපිට එපා කියමින් පාරට බස ඇත. රැවටීමට පෙර පැටිකිරිය දැනගෙන සිටීම වටී. @SiyathaFM @SiyathaNewsLive @HiruGossip @lankacnews @ChamuSOnline
සංගීතාගේ විවාහක සැමියා රොෂාන්ත කාරියප්පෙරුමගේ පැටිකිරිය ඉතාම රසවත්ය. රොෂාන්තගේ අයියා ප්‍රියන්ත කරියප්පෙරුමය. මහින්ද ධීවර අමාත්‍ය කාලේ බොක්කේ හිතවතෙකුය. මහින්දගේ නොතනියට හිටියේ ප්‍රියන්තය. ප්‍රියන්ත සහ රොෂාන්ත හලාවත ඉස්සෝ කොටු අයිති කාරයන්ය. #GoHomeGota #SriLanka #lka #SLnews
ධීවර ඇමති සමග ලඟින් ඇසුරු කොලේ ඒ නිසාය. හලාවත ඉස්සෝ කොටු මුදලාලිට කොළඹ හතේ සංගීතා සැට් උනේ කෙසේද යන්න වෙනම කතාවකි. ජෝඩු කලේ මහින්ද බව නොරහසකි. මෙරට පිටරට සුපිරි කොල්ලෙක් බැඳීමට හැකියාව තිබූ සංගීතා ඉස්සෝ කොටු මුදලාලිව කර ගැසුවේ මන්ද යන්න වෙනම කතාවකි.
මං එක ආර්ථිකවේදියෙක් විතරයි. ඒත්, මේ වගේ ආර්ථික අර්බුද මීට කලින් ඕන තරම් රට වල වෙලා තියනවා. ඒ අනුව ලංකාව ගොඩ ගන්න නම්, මේ පිළිවෙලට ක්‍රියා කරොත් හරි 👇.
#GoHomeRajapakshas #පන්නමු කියන එක හරි, හැබැයි වැඩේ කරේ නැත්තන්, බඩගින්නේ තමයි.
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis
(1/14)
#GoHomeRajapakshas #පන්නමු කියන එක හරි, හැබැයි වැඩේ කරේ නැත්තන්, බඩගින්නේ තමයි.
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis
(1/14)
එක දවසක් වත් බල බල ඉන්නෙ නැතුව:
1. වහාම පොලී අනුපාත වැඩි කරන්න
2. වහාම රටේ ණය කල් තියලා ප්‍රතිව්‍යුහගත කරන්න පටන්ගන්න
3. වහාම IMF එක්ක කතා පටන්ගන්න
4. වහාම බැංකු පද්ධතියේ ඩොලර් මහා බැංකුවට පවරාගැනීම නවත්තන්න
(2/14)
1. වහාම පොලී අනුපාත වැඩි කරන්න
2. වහාම රටේ ණය කල් තියලා ප්‍රතිව්‍යුහගත කරන්න පටන්ගන්න
3. වහාම IMF එක්ක කතා පටන්ගන්න
4. වහාම බැංකු පද්ධතියේ ඩොලර් මහා බැංකුවට පවරාගැනීම නවත්තන්න
(2/14)
මේ 4, එක දවසකින් පටන් ගන්න පුළුවන්. මේ 4 කෙරුවොත්, light කපන එක, තෙල් හිඟය, ගෑස් හිඟය වහාම අඩු කරන්න පටන් ගන්න පුළුවන්.
ඒක කරන්න අවශ්‍ය ඕනෑම දේශපාලන වෙනසක් කරන්න, හැබැයි පරක්කු වුණොත් light නෑ, තෙල් නෑ, කෑම නෑ.
(3/14)
ඒක කරන්න අවශ්‍ය ඕනෑම දේශපාලන වෙනසක් කරන්න, හැබැයි පරක්කු වුණොත් light නෑ, තෙල් නෑ, කෑම නෑ.
(3/14)
This 🧵is the sad story of why fuel+electricity subsidies to the rich gave us powercuts and petrol/diesel queues
Tough choice, but powercuts and fuel queues affect all of us far more now
#EconomicCrisisLK #SriLankaEconomicCrisis #GoHomeRajapakshas #IMFnow
(1/20)
Tough choice, but powercuts and fuel queues affect all of us far more now
#EconomicCrisisLK #SriLankaEconomicCrisis #GoHomeRajapakshas #IMFnow
(1/20)
Let's set out our characters. Rehan represents all rich people in Sri Lanka. Pasan represents all poor people in Sri Lanka. CEB, CPC, banks, and Central Government remain players.
Let's see how Pasan gets screwed over by the rest.
(2/20)
Let's see how Pasan gets screwed over by the rest.
(2/20)
In 2021, at different points, CPC made Rs. 10-50 losses per litre of fuel. Every single litre. So that's a massive loss.
Along with other losses, comes to around 83 billion rupees of a loss in 2021
(3/20)
Along with other losses, comes to around 83 billion rupees of a loss in 2021
(3/20)
This is the story of Sri Lankan corruption - I use a hypothetical example to show how we lose billions of rupees every year due to oligarchy.
Let's say there's a company that makes "nails". Call the firm Acme Nails Lanka. (ANL)
#GoHomeRajapakshas #පන්නමු
(1/8)
Let's say there's a company that makes "nails". Call the firm Acme Nails Lanka. (ANL)
#GoHomeRajapakshas #පන්නමු
(1/8)
Now, Sri Lanka needs a lot of "nails" of course. Statistics suggests ANL produces 11m units (majority of local production) instead of allowing imports.
But imports are bad right?
Not necessarily.
(2/8)
But imports are bad right?
Not necessarily.
(2/8)
The average global cost of importing a "nail" (exc duties) is ~750 LKR per unit. ANL's production, if imported would be ~8bn.
But the average retail price that ANL sells their "nails" at is ~1800 LKR for total costs of ~20bn.
That's a ~12bn LKR difference every year.
(3/8)
But the average retail price that ANL sells their "nails" at is ~1800 LKR for total costs of ~20bn.
That's a ~12bn LKR difference every year.
(3/8)
What will happen if we don't take immediate economic action
No rate hikes=LKR falls, imports are harder, powercuts grow
No IMF=Delays international credibility, no bilateral/multilateral support
No debt suspension=Lose whatever USD we have
#SriLanka #GoHomeRajapakshas
(1/4)
No rate hikes=LKR falls, imports are harder, powercuts grow
No IMF=Delays international credibility, no bilateral/multilateral support
No debt suspension=Lose whatever USD we have
#SriLanka #GoHomeRajapakshas
(1/4)
What will happen if we don't take short term economic action
No CB overhaul=no international acceptance
No debt restruturing=never regain int confidence
No electricity/fuel price adjustments=CEB/CPC goes bust and no have power for a while
#SriLanka #GoHomeRajapakshas
(2/4)
No CB overhaul=no international acceptance
No debt restruturing=never regain int confidence
No electricity/fuel price adjustments=CEB/CPC goes bust and no have power for a while
#SriLanka #GoHomeRajapakshas
(2/4)
What will happen if we don't take medium term economic action
No tax reform (raise tax/remove protection for oligarchs)=money printing+corruption increases
No privatization=more borrowing needed
No cash transfers to poor=people dying
#SriLanka #GoHomeRajapakshas
(3/4)
No tax reform (raise tax/remove protection for oligarchs)=money printing+corruption increases
No privatization=more borrowing needed
No cash transfers to poor=people dying
#SriLanka #GoHomeRajapakshas
(3/4)
