Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #goldhub
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All-time highs for #gold – a thread
Gold hit a new all-time high this morning, posting $1944.71/oz during late Asian trading and is currently near that level.
There has been a LOT of coverage of the all-time-high on social media – who knew there were so many #gold experts?😃😃
Gold hit a new all-time high this morning, posting $1944.71/oz during late Asian trading and is currently near that level.
There has been a LOT of coverage of the all-time-high on social media – who knew there were so many #gold experts?😃😃
It’s great timing as far as we are concerned, as it means that #gold is getting a lot of attention ahead of the launch of our Q2-2020 / H1-2020 #GoldDemandTrends release, which will come out on Thursday.
What can we say about #gold at the moment? Obviously I am not going to front run the release of GDT, but we can repeat themes we’ve been making for some time.
Gold at $1800/oz: a short thread.
Gold is trading just above $1800/oz after hitting a fresh 8-year high this week. Not much appears to stand in the way of #gold challenging the all-time high of $1921/oz set in September 2011.
Gold is trading just above $1800/oz after hitting a fresh 8-year high this week. Not much appears to stand in the way of #gold challenging the all-time high of $1921/oz set in September 2011.
The best financial market-related explainer of the move in #gold is ever-falling real US yields and this relationship remains extremely important.
As concerns about the impact of the Coronvirus intensify, real rates have headed every lower, helping gold.
As concerns about the impact of the Coronvirus intensify, real rates have headed every lower, helping gold.
(Although interestingly the correlation of real rates and #gold has weakened sharply over the past month as this chart shows)
What a ride it has been for GCM0, the June-expiry Comex #gold contract.
One month ago it was trading at a $15/oz premium to the spot gold price.
Now it's trading at a $10/oz discount.
(short thread)
One month ago it was trading at a $15/oz premium to the spot gold price.
Now it's trading at a $10/oz discount.
(short thread)
I’ve had a few questions this morning about
“why is the Comex future trading at a discount to spot”
The short answer is that we are nearing first notice for Jun, so specs and investors are selling Jun and buying August.
This is pushing the Jun lower, hence the discount.
“why is the Comex future trading at a discount to spot”
The short answer is that we are nearing first notice for Jun, so specs and investors are selling Jun and buying August.
This is pushing the Jun lower, hence the discount.
This screenshot of the contract table shows that much of the aggregate open interest has been rolled into August, but there is still nearly 100k lots left (as of 26 May).
One sided, in more ways than one.
It’s been a frustrating to be away from the office at a conference even one as good as the @ThePLSA.
Now that I’m back at my desk and in front of my spreadsheets I’d like to share some thoughts about #gold
It’s been a frustrating to be away from the office at a conference even one as good as the @ThePLSA.
Now that I’m back at my desk and in front of my spreadsheets I’d like to share some thoughts about #gold
Gold has been a one-sided market for a while: investment and speculative demand is dominating trading while the Indian and Chinese physical markets have been quiet.
Futures, OTC and ETF investors have driven gold to recent highs. Here is the Comex COTR as an illustration.
Futures, OTC and ETF investors have driven gold to recent highs. Here is the Comex COTR as an illustration.
With investors and speculators in charge of the move in #gold, the price has tracked its usual financial market indicators, especially real US interest rates.
The move in gold over the past fortnight have tracked real rates very closely.
The move in gold over the past fortnight have tracked real rates very closely.
Gold: Trading at $1676/oz at the time of writing in what has been a very choppy start to the week.
$1700/oz traded in Asia early on Monday as global equity markets opened (and have stayed) sharply lower.
But #gold couldn't hold these gains.
$1700/oz traded in Asia early on Monday as global equity markets opened (and have stayed) sharply lower.
But #gold couldn't hold these gains.
Switching to the Comex active contract, there is no sign of a particular jump in #gold volume such as was seen on Friday.
Real US Yields are much lower, with 10-year yields off a stunning 30bp.
Twenty Years of the Central Bank Gold Agreement comes to an end today.
(short thread)
(short thread)
Today marks the end of the final Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA). Over the last twenty years, the agreement has helped stabilise the #gold market by limiting the amount of gold that signatories, all European central banks, could collectively sell in any one year.
But the gold market has changed drastically over the last two decades. Sources of demand are more diverse than they were in 1999, and the price is significantly higher. Central banks were (uncoordinated) net sellers at the time, prompting the CBGA.
#gold under some moderate pressure on Thursday during European morning trading, last around $1537/oz
Firmer US equity futures (EUS9 up 24 points at the time of writing) and less negative real US yields appear to be driving #gold today, perhaps related to the story indicating that China won’t retaliate to new US Tariffs (for now).
Despite occasional set-backs, its been a decent month for #gold so far, supported by steady speculative longs on Comex; strong T+D volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and decent inflows into global gold-backed ETFs.
#Gold is just above $1530/oz in Tuesday morning trading, slightly higher than the US close on Monday and today’s Asian range.
With London out for a (sunny) bank holiday, I missed the extraordinary Asian range on Monday.
With London out for a (sunny) bank holiday, I missed the extraordinary Asian range on Monday.
I’m not sure what the trigger was, although I suspect concern about the skirmishes in the looming trade war were to blame.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange was one venue where the move in #gold played out, with heavy volume seen in the T+D contract, taking August to a record.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange was one venue where the move in #gold played out, with heavy volume seen in the T+D contract, taking August to a record.
ETFs have continued to build tonnage over the past few days and based on our proprietary database have added just shy of 100t of #gold this month, with US-listed ETFs the heaviest buyers.
How worried should #gold bulls be by near-record net-long positions in #gold on Comex.
Grey haired market participants (like me) know that positioning extremes ‘often’ lead to reversals, as the ebbs and flows of gold and net longs show on this chart.
Grey haired market participants (like me) know that positioning extremes ‘often’ lead to reversals, as the ebbs and flows of gold and net longs show on this chart.
BUT
There have been times when net longs in gold have been elevated for years, yet this hasn’t stopped #gold heading high – see the area highlighted here between Oct 09 and July 11.
There have been times when net longs in gold have been elevated for years, yet this hasn’t stopped #gold heading high – see the area highlighted here between Oct 09 and July 11.
Remember, Comex is only one part of a much larger #gold market and under the right circumstances, large long or short positions can prevail for a LONG time and gold can move a LOT while positions are at extremes.
$Gold: consolidating above $1500/oz at the start of the week - last around $1502.80 following some volatility in early European trading.
An early test below $1490 per ounce just after 8am London was short-lived and $ quickly bounced back above $1500/oz.
If #gold is not quite following real US interest rates tick-for-tick, then its pretty close.
Gold: Steady at the start of the week and trading around $1427/oz.
#Gold had a volatile week but posted some decent gains despite trading down to $1400/oz on Wednesday 17th July.
#Gold had a volatile week but posted some decent gains despite trading down to $1400/oz on Wednesday 17th July.
Gold: At $1326.50 in early European trading on Monday, #gold is some $20+ off Friday's intraday high.
I think it's fair to say that this is one reason why #gold is lower today (although I'd also argue that trading on presidential pronouncements is a dangerous game).
Gold: But this is another contributing factor - the change in Managed Money #gold futures positions reported by the CFTC for the week to 4 June (i.e. last Tuesday).
After spending the preceding month around $1285/oz, #gold has moved quickly higher since 31 May, currently trading around $1322/oz after approaching $1330/oz earlier today.
And this strength is not just a USD denominated #gold phenomenon: gold’s been strong in other currencies too, as this chart shows.
Inflows into #gold ETFs have also been noted, particularly yesterday, when 609koz of gold flowed into global ETFs according to Bloomberg, the biggest one-day inflow since Boxing Day 2018.
#Gold: There is an interesting story on Bloomberg suggesting that China could dump Treasuries, not as part of the #TradeWar but to defend its currency.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…?
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…?
#Gold: Certainly, the RMB has quickly fallen in value against the USD and Euro over the past month, as this chart of a 50:50 USDCNY EURCNY blend shows.
