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Twenty Years of the Central Bank Gold Agreement comes to an end today.

(short thread)
Today marks the end of the final Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA). Over the last twenty years, the agreement has helped stabilise the #gold market by limiting the amount of gold that signatories, all European central banks, could collectively sell in any one year.
But the gold market has changed drastically over the last two decades. Sources of demand are more diverse than they were in 1999, and the price is significantly higher. Central banks were (uncoordinated) net sellers at the time, prompting the CBGA.
Read 7 tweets
#gold under some moderate pressure on Thursday during European morning trading, last around $1537/oz
Firmer US equity futures (EUS9 up 24 points at the time of writing) and less negative real US yields appear to be driving #gold today, perhaps related to the story indicating that China won’t retaliate to new US Tariffs (for now).
Despite occasional set-backs, its been a decent month for #gold so far, supported by steady speculative longs on Comex; strong T+D volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and decent inflows into global gold-backed ETFs.
Read 7 tweets
#Gold is just above $1530/oz in Tuesday morning trading, slightly higher than the US close on Monday and today’s Asian range.

With London out for a (sunny) bank holiday, I missed the extraordinary Asian range on Monday.
I’m not sure what the trigger was, although I suspect concern about the skirmishes in the looming trade war were to blame.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange was one venue where the move in #gold played out, with heavy volume seen in the T+D contract, taking August to a record.
ETFs have continued to build tonnage over the past few days and based on our proprietary database have added just shy of 100t of #gold this month, with US-listed ETFs the heaviest buyers.
Read 7 tweets
How worried should #gold bulls be by near-record net-long positions in #gold on Comex.

Grey haired market participants (like me) know that positioning extremes ‘often’ lead to reversals, as the ebbs and flows of gold and net longs show on this chart.
BUT

There have been times when net longs in gold have been elevated for years, yet this hasn’t stopped #gold heading high – see the area highlighted here between Oct 09 and July 11.
Remember, Comex is only one part of a much larger #gold market and under the right circumstances, large long or short positions can prevail for a LONG time and gold can move a LOT while positions are at extremes.
Read 5 tweets
$Gold: consolidating above $1500/oz at the start of the week - last around $1502.80 following some volatility in early European trading.
An early test below $1490 per ounce just after 8am London was short-lived and $ quickly bounced back above $1500/oz.
If #gold is not quite following real US interest rates tick-for-tick, then its pretty close.
Read 13 tweets
Gold: Steady at the start of the week and trading around $1427/oz.

#Gold had a volatile week but posted some decent gains despite trading down to $1400/oz on Wednesday 17th July.
The robots from Bloomberg, @business, report inflows of 224koz yesterday into physical #gold-backed ETFs for Friday.
@business Our own, more comprehensive database, shows mtd #gold flows dominated by US-listed funds, a change from the early part of the year when European funds saw the lion's share.
Read 7 tweets
Gold: At $1326.50 in early European trading on Monday, #gold is some $20+ off Friday's intraday high.
I think it's fair to say that this is one reason why #gold is lower today (although I'd also argue that trading on presidential pronouncements is a dangerous game).
Gold: But this is another contributing factor - the change in Managed Money #gold futures positions reported by the CFTC for the week to 4 June (i.e. last Tuesday).
Read 9 tweets
After spending the preceding month around $1285/oz, #gold has moved quickly higher since 31 May, currently trading around $1322/oz after approaching $1330/oz earlier today.
And this strength is not just a USD denominated #gold phenomenon: gold’s been strong in other currencies too, as this chart shows.
Inflows into #gold ETFs have also been noted, particularly yesterday, when 609koz of gold flowed into global ETFs according to Bloomberg, the biggest one-day inflow since Boxing Day 2018.
Read 12 tweets
#Gold: There is an interesting story on Bloomberg suggesting that China could dump Treasuries, not as part of the #TradeWar but to defend its currency.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…?
#Gold: Certainly, the RMB has quickly fallen in value against the USD and Euro over the past month, as this chart of a 50:50 USDCNY EURCNY blend shows.
Gold: Together with the move in US dollar-denominated #gold back towards $1300/oz, this has propelled #gold in renminbi towards a recent high.
Read 10 tweets

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