Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #goldstock

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The typical #Commodity or #goldstock graph that tends to interest us if backed up with fundamentals, we would expect 1H 2023 this could bottom at 2c down 50% from current levels (-95%+ from cycle peak), offering 20x returns over the following 48 months. Image
For fundamentals we would like to see 4-7c of potential annual cashflow 3 years out to back our 20x return.
This is how to create wealth, deployment of capital near a cycle bottom can grow by 10-20x over the following 48 months.

Get in step and alignment with the upcoming cycle bottom - this is the best guidance we can give any investor

Read 5 tweets
Cycle Bottom rule of thumbs:

A) Do we have multiple asymmetric trades across this new theme?

B) Can we assess the catalysts for the bottoming process over the next 3 to 9 months?

C) Are the bottoming valuations supportive of 10x returns over the next 60 months?

The sort of 20 year plus #goldstock graph that excites us, all positive expectations beaten out and a return to 15-20 year lows, down 90-95%, peaks correlating to #gold sector peaks. This becomes interesting 🤔 in the next 20-30% downside.
Couple this with fundamentals of material ozs in the ground, in accessible locations, a reasonable cash stack. Bonus' are a great low capex NPV with high IRR.

#goldstocks the round trip is incoming, a 15-20 year bottoming is not far out on the horizon.

Read 3 tweets
#goldstocks next asymmetric theme incoming 1H 2023 as the USD peaks and markets bottom, holding time 36-48 months.
Still likely plenty of downside to rock bottom, but many of the 5 baggers with become 10 baggers in the final wash out, scale in slowly, avoid potentially high diluters.
We like high IRR projects with low capex start ups trading below cash backing is an added bonus.
Classic signs of #goldstock value and 5-10x returns:

A) funded road to production and trading on less than 0.3x Cashflow 3 years out (near zero dilution potential)

B) healthy in the ground gold resource with good grade, trading on negative EV (cash exceeds cap), Cap/oz < $5
Read 3 tweets
$GMTN heading towards negative EV

1m oz resource at high grade with positive drilling results

65koz low capex production ramp up, NPV 10x cap and expanding

Optimization issues on start up

Accummulation zone incoming 8-18c, below <12c 10x return potential

It's starting to tick the boxes
A) negative EV
B) free pounds in the ground
C) low capex ramp up
D) nice grade
E) 10x plus NPV upside
F) hated by the market
G) optimization could kick in 3-6 months time
H) cycle bottoming incoming over 4-9 months
I) low dilution risk Vs M&A
Please note any new bottoming theme over the next 3 to 9 months, one should have 5 candidates to mitigate stock specific risk.

If our #gold watchlist falls by 50% from here as the bottoming process kicks in, the average return will likely be 10-15x over the following 3-5 years.
Read 7 tweets

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