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Musings of the Day, 2/24/23:
This really is a myth and to everyone that perpetuates it, I ask:
What is China's alternative that can match the combination of liquidity and safety of USTs?
This really is a myth and to everyone that perpetuates it, I ask:
What is China's alternative that can match the combination of liquidity and safety of USTs?
I call attention to this other paper that I quote in my West Point paper (to be released on my Substack tomorrow):
"The first key element behind the Dollar’s Imperial Circle is the direction of capital flows towards the U.S. economy as the main destination that has the capacity to absorb saving coming mainly from Asia."
Happy LORD's Day brothers and sisters!
"Giga 🐂 idiot" here w/ early gift bc tmr SUPER BOWL!
Next week surely is NOT as easy as every FinTwit furu wants you to believe.
So many differences in opinions/analyses...
Let's try to think about this critically 🥐style.
See below 🧵:
"Giga 🐂 idiot" here w/ early gift bc tmr SUPER BOWL!
Next week surely is NOT as easy as every FinTwit furu wants you to believe.
So many differences in opinions/analyses...
Let's try to think about this critically 🥐style.
See below 🧵:
1/
Recap:
Mostly everything 🥐talked about, has played out for the past couple months. More recently, we've squeezed shorts heavily into an area that once was thought unreachable (past the MOAT, 200d sma).
However, the FED was hellbent on preventing moar...
Recap:
Mostly everything 🥐talked about, has played out for the past couple months. More recently, we've squeezed shorts heavily into an area that once was thought unreachable (past the MOAT, 200d sma).
However, the FED was hellbent on preventing moar...
2/
After JPOW nothing burger, which propped up equities back to ~4190, numerous FED speakers came out and all reiterated essentially the H4L (coined by dampedspring - follow him, won't tag bc of notifs) "Higher For Longer" rhetoric.
Equities responded in turn ⬇️.
After JPOW nothing burger, which propped up equities back to ~4190, numerous FED speakers came out and all reiterated essentially the H4L (coined by dampedspring - follow him, won't tag bc of notifs) "Higher For Longer" rhetoric.
Equities responded in turn ⬇️.
CPI Thoughts for Traders with ADHD
#Gothilocks #BigFlip
Just as everyone is cozy that Inflation is last year's story, a brave few have been warning about a pick-up in Inflation.
So lets make it simple:
(KISS = Keep It Simple Shrub)
🧵
#Gothilocks #BigFlip
Just as everyone is cozy that Inflation is last year's story, a brave few have been warning about a pick-up in Inflation.
So lets make it simple:
(KISS = Keep It Simple Shrub)
🧵
- On Jan 24th, the Cleveland Fed Nowcast for JAN was at +0.53% mom
- But on Feb 10th, the JAN Nowcast got revised UP to +0.63% mom
- And we also have now an estimate for FEB and it's +0.68% mom!
Reminder: the DEC print came in at -0.10% mom & got revised today UP to +0.10%!
- But on Feb 10th, the JAN Nowcast got revised UP to +0.63% mom
- And we also have now an estimate for FEB and it's +0.68% mom!
Reminder: the DEC print came in at -0.10% mom & got revised today UP to +0.10%!
In summary:
a) Jan vs Dec inflation is UP +0.5% MoM and the TREND is UP
b) If we annualize 0.5% MoM, we get 6% inflation! My maths is bad, but 6% ain't no 2% !
c) The Feb nowcast is also pointing to sticky inflation at >6% annualized ! So Jan isn't a one-off !
a) Jan vs Dec inflation is UP +0.5% MoM and the TREND is UP
b) If we annualize 0.5% MoM, we get 6% inflation! My maths is bad, but 6% ain't no 2% !
c) The Feb nowcast is also pointing to sticky inflation at >6% annualized ! So Jan isn't a one-off !
