Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #greatdepression
Most recents (17)
When students of statistics are introduced to creating and interpreting models, they are introduced to George Box's maxim:
*All models are wrong, some are useful.*
It's a call for humility and perspective, a reminder to superimpose the messy world on your clean lines. 1/
*All models are wrong, some are useful.*
It's a call for humility and perspective, a reminder to superimpose the messy world on your clean lines. 1/
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
pluralistic.net/2023/04/03/all… 2/
pluralistic.net/2023/04/03/all… 2/
Even with this benediction, modeling is forever prone to the cardinal sin of insisting that complex reality can be reduced to "a perfectly spherical cow of uniform density on a frictionless plane." 3/
For many #ConstitutionalLaw scholars, last years' #Dobbs decision on #AbortionRights at the #SupremeCourt came as a dismaying shock, because it showed conclusively that #conlaw wasn't a realm of ideologically consistent intellectual foment, but rather, a matter of *politics*. 1/
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
pluralistic.net/2023/03/25/con… 2/
pluralistic.net/2023/03/25/con… 2/
Writing for @CreditSlips, the #FinanceLaw scholar #AdamLevitin admits to feeling a bit of schadenfreude in that moment. The "blue collar" law scholars in "grubby" banking and money fields have always treated the conlaw set as "slightly clueless toffs":
creditslips.org/creditslips/20… 3/
creditslips.org/creditslips/20… 3/
1/8 Witness the intriguing parallel between USDC insolvency concerns & Marriner Eccles's strategy during the Great Depression. Both emphasize trust in financial systems. #stablecoin #financialhistory
USDC issuers, led by Circle, hit pause on withdrawals to gather capital in response to insolvency concerns. They took a page from history to handle the crisis. #cryptocurrency #crisismanagement
Historical context: Marriner Eccles, a prominent banker during the Great Depression, used a clever strategy to control teller cash payouts, restoring confidence in the banking system. #GreatDepression #banking
Man-made famine, coming soon to America, courtesy of the @JoeBiden Regime.
Doubt me?
Since he took office some 42 food processing facilities have been torched soon after he announced there would be food shortages at the G7, the most recent a chicken 🐓 processing facility.
Doubt me?
Since he took office some 42 food processing facilities have been torched soon after he announced there would be food shortages at the G7, the most recent a chicken 🐓 processing facility.
Yet another bizarre fire 🔥 that will threaten our food supply.
I’m sure that in the mind of @JoeBiden Vladimir Putin is somehow to blame.
Wait for it.
#Election2022
#TakeAmericaBack
westernjournal.com/another-bizarr…
I’m sure that in the mind of @JoeBiden Vladimir Putin is somehow to blame.
Wait for it.
#Election2022
#TakeAmericaBack
westernjournal.com/another-bizarr…
I would say #Google it, but when I actually USED @Google vs @DuckDuckGo the results were obviously censored with pro-Biden narratives.
#Election2022
#TakeAmericaBack
nationalreview.com/the-morning-jo…
#Election2022
#TakeAmericaBack
nationalreview.com/the-morning-jo…
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/04/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2022/01/04/dai…
Kamala Harris Is a Diversity Hire | Opinion
newsweek.com/kamala-harris-…
#PartisanPolitics, #VicePresident, #KamalaHarris, #OpEd
newsweek.com/kamala-harris-…
#PartisanPolitics, #VicePresident, #KamalaHarris, #OpEd
Game Changers: Nature Food | Springer Nature Sustainability Community
…inabilitycommunity.springernature.com/posts/game-cha…
#GlobalSustainability, #FoodProduction, #ResearchResults, #PublishedPapers
…inabilitycommunity.springernature.com/posts/game-cha…
#GlobalSustainability, #FoodProduction, #ResearchResults, #PublishedPapers
20 years ago, #POTUS was the leader of the free world.
Today, @POTUS is leading the nationalization of a free country.
A history🧵on how we got here..
Today, @POTUS is leading the nationalization of a free country.
A history🧵on how we got here..
It didn't start with #September11. Federal interventionism and expansionism began much earlier.
We dove into global conflicts in 1898, when we took Cuba, PR, Guam, and Philippines from the Spanish in a short war that began suspiciously.
We dove into global conflicts in 1898, when we took Cuba, PR, Guam, and Philippines from the Spanish in a short war that began suspiciously.
Two hawkish POTUS later, #WoodrowWilson (a passive academic) established the #FederalReserve and income tax in 1913 (FTC in 1914), entered WWI and created a propaganda office in 1917, raised taxes in 1918, and formed what became the @UN in 1920.
Federal powers greatly expanded.
Federal powers greatly expanded.
Honest question to @sendahms and other @mngop & @MinnesotaDFL legislators. If I am teaching the Civil War to 7th graders, how much time should I devote? What key events, people, concepts should I discuss? How should I assess? Remember, I have 50 minute class periods. #mnleg
I'll take it another step further, using the same parameters?
How much time, ... etc. should I devote to the #WWI? Who do I include, exclude? What outside resources can I bring in and which must I avoid? Remember these are 13 year olds and we have 173 school days.
How much time, ... etc. should I devote to the #WWI? Who do I include, exclude? What outside resources can I bring in and which must I avoid? Remember these are 13 year olds and we have 173 school days.
Repeat this for the following:
#RevolutionaryWar
#Warof1812
#MexicanAmericanWar
#IndianWars
#SpanishAmericanWar
#WWI
#WWII
#Vietnam
#KoreanWar
#ColdWar
#GulfWar
#WarInAfghanistan
#WarOnTerror
What battles do we focus on? How do we build context? Outcomes?
#RevolutionaryWar
#Warof1812
#MexicanAmericanWar
#IndianWars
#SpanishAmericanWar
#WWI
#WWII
#Vietnam
#KoreanWar
#ColdWar
#GulfWar
#WarInAfghanistan
#WarOnTerror
What battles do we focus on? How do we build context? Outcomes?
@GunnelsWarren @GOP @DNC @realDonaldTrump @stevenmnuchin1 @SpeakerPelosi @senatemajldr @SenSchumer @SenateGOP @SenateDems How are Americans supposed to #STAYATHOME when #UnemploymentBenefits & #EvictionMoratorium expire after Christmas? npr.org/2020/12/02/940… #EmergencyRelief #MerryChristmas
Had to RT because I forgot to include Schumer.
@GunnelsWarren @GOP @DNC @realDonaldTrump @stevenmnuchin1 @SenSchumer @SenateGOP @SenateDems @JoeBiden @KamalaHarris @SpeakerPelosi @senatemajldr @HouseDemocrats @HouseGOP @SenateDems The Economic Impact of #COVIDー19 May Linger Long After the Virus is Gone @HumanistReport @BernieSanders @RevJJackson @NinaTurner @DrDooleyMD #StimulusChecksNOW
#CF40 #MACROECONOMIC POLICY REPORT The Great Depression and Roosevelt’s New Deal by senior fellow Zhang Bin: new.cf40.org.cn/uploads/ZB2020… #COVID19 #novelcoronavirus #economics
The #GreatDepression and Roosevelt’s #NewDeal are very precious historical treasures, of enduring significance to future generations as to avoid great depressions, carry out relief programs,reinvigorate economy &implement reforms.Key measures for the current crisis may include:
1. Maintaining credit growth and preventing deflation are cure for avoiding severe depression. The excessive tightening of credit led to the Great Depression, which ended following the restoration of credit, and economy could not recover from the Great Depression without help.
#CF40 #MACROECONOMIC POLICY REPORT: The Great Depression and Roosevelt’s New Deal led by senior fellow Zhang Bin: new.cf40.org.cn/uploads/ZB2020… #COVID19 #novelcoronavirus #economics
The novel coronavirus is wreaking havoc on China and the global economies, as economic activities come to a standstill and unemployment rate skyrockets. The #GreatDepression and the #NewDeal are valuable experience and lessons for the current economic situation.
1. Maintaining credit growth and preventing deflation are cure for avoiding severe depression. The excessive tightening of credit led to the Great Depression, which ended following the restoration of credit, and economy could not recover from the Great Depression without help.
Will the global economy slip into another "#GreatDepression"? The panic over a possible return of the Great Depression is misleading, evidenced by a few key differences: new.cf40.org.cn/uploads/202004… #COVID19
The first difference lies in the monetary system: the gold standard system during the Great Depression hampered monetary policy easing. The room for policy maneuvers is much more spacious at present than during the Great Depression.
Different roles of fiscal policies：stimulus policies lagged seriously behind during Great Depression. After the Great Depression and several financial crises, macroeconomic theories flourished, and government fiscal support was incorporated into the counter-cyclical tool kit.
Although comparing the impact of #COVID19 with Great Depression is overly pessimistic, it serves to remind national authorities to be alert to the risks of a very unlikely scenario and to strengthen international cooperation, according to Zhu Jun: new.cf40.org.cn/uploads/202004…
There is only one widely recognized #GreatDepression , which happened in 1929-1933. Though the global economy suffered a "great recession" after the 2008 financial crisis, it did not qualify as a "Great Depression".
Whether the duration of the economic downturn, reduction in output and the rise in unemployment can reach the standard of "Great Depression" remains under observation:
The #IMF says the "Great Lockdown" recession will likely be the worst since the Great Depression. Global economy projected to shrink by 3% in 2020. By contrast, in January, the IMF had forecast a global GDP expansion of 3.3% for this year. Details in chart below. Table: @IMFNews
IMF: Partial global rebound to 5.8% in 2021 “assumes the #pandemic fades in the 2nd half of 2020, & that policy actions taken by countries are effective in preventing widespread firm bankruptcies, extended job losses, & system-wide financial strains.” #WEO ow.ly/ZLYi50zccSJ
How does your country fare in the latest #IMF projections for 2020 & 2021? imf.org/~/media/Files/… @IMFNews #economies #GDP #finance
IMF publishes quarterly long-read on world economic outlook. Title is scary: "The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression" blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the…
Magnitude & speed of collapse is unlike anything experienced in our lifetimes… we project global growth in 2020 to fall to -3% - a downgrade of 6.3% from 2020/01. This makes #GreatLockdown the worst recession since #GreatDepression and far worse than Global Financial Crisis
Assuming the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and that policy actions taken around the world are effective in preventing widespread firm bankruptcies, extended job losses, and system-wide financial strains, we project global growth in 2021 to rebound to 5.8 percent.
People trying to draw analogies with the #GreatDepression, wartime, or 70s stagflation are missing the point IMHO 1/x
GD was a ‘sudden-stop’ shock which ended the credit-boom lending to Weimar as the Young Plan looked in jeopardy. Made worse by politics (war debts, etc), #protectionism (Smoot-Hawley), Hoover call to maintain wage-rates, #FX chaos (esp. when Brits left #gold standard) 2/x
The initial slump & ‘secondary (financial vicious cycle) depression’ then perpetuated by #NewDeal boondoggle vote-buying, #FDR capriciousness, & Brain Trust cranks. This was much more a post-#GFC parallel than today’s #ContaminoBay #lockdown 3/x
Will the global economy slip into another "Great Depression"? mp.weixin.qq.com/s/WYPSFnGxjMhD…
Considering the recent tumult in global economic and financial markets triggered by the pandemic, there exist quite a few pessimistic expectations that the #GreatDepression 2.0 is looming.
The panic over a possible return of the Great Depression is misleading in view of the vast discrepancies between the present and the Great Depression in terms of monetary system, principles on #macropolicies, #global trade, robustness of banking system and #socialsecuritysystem.
