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Some personal good news in hard times: Joined with wonderful coauthors @Chris_ptz @pvillenueve we just published our paper „The macroeconomic effects of social security contributions and benefits” in the Journal of Monetary Economics doi.org/10.1016/j.jmon… #econtwitter Thread: 
The gist of the paper is to estimate #macroeconomic #multiplier effects of spending on #socialsecurity vs. cutting contributions. The literature shows it is hard to estimate such effects, because spending and revenues are highly endogenous to the business cycle./2
We did a lot of nitpicking work conducting a time series of timing+size+circumstances of major legislations of social security in GER 1970q1-2018q4 (inspired by seminal work of Cristina+David Romer 2010 AER). This shall identify exogenous changes for causal analysis./3
