Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #halvening
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Some more data indicating that #Bitcoin’s attack-resistance will likely continue to deteriorate as its block subsidy declines. #halvening
Thread. 👇
Thread. 👇
Bitcoiners often state that hash power is increasing, and therefore the security of the network must be increasing, too.
However, hash power is an exceptionally poor metric for security, as described—for instance—by @OhGodAGirl:
medium.com/@OhGodAGirl/th…
However, hash power is an exceptionally poor metric for security, as described—for instance—by @OhGodAGirl:
medium.com/@OhGodAGirl/th…
If transaction fees (F) were to replace issuance (I) (i.e., block subsidy) over time, the ratio F/I needs to grow indefinitely.
Let’s look at Bitcoin's F/I a bit more closely. (thanks to @coinmetrics for the raw data)
Let’s look at Bitcoin's F/I a bit more closely. (thanks to @coinmetrics for the raw data)
#Ethereum is about to undergo the #Thirdening - a reduction in issuance of new $ETH to miners from 3 ETH/block to 2 ETH/block, or a reduction of 33%. It will happen at block 7,080,000 as part of the Constantinople hard fork, which is estimated to be January 16th.
That's a bit like the US Federal Reserve saying, "we're about to reduce the number of new dollars we print next year by 33%." This is one step along the way to #Ethereum's eventual plan to have <1% annual issuance, as Proof of Stake and Serenity roll out. #Thirdening
When an asset's supply goes down (fewer miners selling newly-mined $ETH), assuming demand is the same (or higher), prices trend up. This is obvious when looking at $BTC price mapped against the #halvening, a similar event in $BTC where block reward halves, next one is May 2020.
1/ People significantly underestimate the impact that countries with unstable currencies have on #Bitcoin prices
2/ Mining supply is currently ~12,600 BTC per week or ~$80mm. Putting this in context, weekly volume at @LocalBitcoins looks to have stabilized around ~$50mm per week after the late 2017 volume spike with a long term growth trend that looks to remain in place
3/ For those who don’t know, @LocalBitcoins is an online marketplace that facilitates the peer to peer exchange of #BTC for local currency. This is great for analysis purposes because it means we can breakdown the data on a country by country basis
