Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #hartlepool
Most recents (5)
What is the lesson from #HartlepoolByElection for forecasting future elections?
I have 2 hypotheses.
1. Hartlepool was behind the curve in #GE2019 & the by-election represents catch up.
2. #Brexit realignment of British politics is still continuing.
Let's look at them... /1
I have 2 hypotheses.
1. Hartlepool was behind the curve in #GE2019 & the by-election represents catch up.
2. #Brexit realignment of British politics is still continuing.
Let's look at them... /1
The 1st can be confirmed just by looking at CON vote share changes between 2010 & 2019 in Hartlepool's 4 neighbours.
Easington > from 14% to 26%
Sedgefield > from 23% to 47%
Stockton N > from 26% to 41%
Redcar > from 14% to 46%
Hartlepool > from 28% to 29%
So the jump ...
/2
Easington > from 14% to 26%
Sedgefield > from 23% to 47%
Stockton N > from 26% to 41%
Redcar > from 14% to 46%
Hartlepool > from 28% to 29%
So the jump ...
/2
... to 52% in this by-election can be put down to #Hartlepool copying its neighbours 2 years late.
But could this indicate the Brexit realignment of 2019 was incomplete & there could be more Hartlepool's?
The answer is yes. Note how nearly all BXP voters went to CON ...
/3
But could this indicate the Brexit realignment of 2019 was incomplete & there could be more Hartlepool's?
The answer is yes. Note how nearly all BXP voters went to CON ...
/3
My favourite quote from a green 'think tank' report.
They can't say they didn't know.
And the Tories shouldn't fool themselves that this will not happen to them.
Oh, it will.
#Hartlepool.
They can't say they didn't know.
And the Tories shouldn't fool themselves that this will not happen to them.
Oh, it will.
#Hartlepool.
That report is what led to the Climate Assembly.
But what's more interesting is why the last-remaining object of the Blair-era consensus is still intact.
But what's more interesting is why the last-remaining object of the Blair-era consensus is still intact.
While Blair and then Brown, and then Cameron were trying to build their projects on the Westminster consensus, to make climate change the dominant issue, the loudest voice from the public was the demand for the referendum.
Fewer than 3 in 10 of the electorate voted Tory in #GE2019.
Of the 30 lowest constituency turnouts, all bar one were in the north of England. In 287 constituencies (44%), turnout was less than two-thirds of the electorate.
In the #HartlepoolByElection, just 22% voted Tory.
Of the 30 lowest constituency turnouts, all bar one were in the north of England. In 287 constituencies (44%), turnout was less than two-thirds of the electorate.
In the #HartlepoolByElection, just 22% voted Tory.
The turnout in #Hartlepool was just 42.3%, but this is still a significant increase on the 2018 local elections, when the percentage of registered voters who returned a ballot in Hartlepool was the lowest in the country, at just 24.2%
In #GE2019, turnout tended to be higher than average in constituencies with a larger proportion of older residents.
Also, 26 seats were won with majorities of less than 2%, 141 seats out of 650 were won by a margin of less than 10%, within an overall average turnout of 67.3%.
Also, 26 seats were won with majorities of less than 2%, 141 seats out of 650 were won by a margin of less than 10%, within an overall average turnout of 67.3%.
The analysis of electoral results is full of distortion, just like pre-electoral advertising lies and soon to come lies in a battle of lefty agendas.
A system that at every level builds lies is corrupt. It guarantees the worst outcome for all
So what do the data say?⬇️
A system that at every level builds lies is corrupt. It guarantees the worst outcome for all
So what do the data say?⬇️
First GE19 (Hartlepool context)
Corbyn...honestly, I think he was a strategic disaster for Labour, but it's dishonest to say he was the main reason LAB lost.
It's also a lie to say #Brexit lost it.
The overwhelming and unaddressed factors?
Turnout, Split Votes 1/
Corbyn...honestly, I think he was a strategic disaster for Labour, but it's dishonest to say he was the main reason LAB lost.
It's also a lie to say #Brexit lost it.
The overwhelming and unaddressed factors?
Turnout, Split Votes 1/
Of the multiple datasets showing this, you can see more in Prof Theimo's excellent analysis [
Or dig further into on what the problem was; see the exhaustive [dataprax.is/tory-landslide…] 2/
Or dig further into on what the problem was; see the exhaustive [dataprax.is/tory-landslide…] 2/
I don’t blame the people of Hartlepool for apparently being about to elect a Tory MP in a move that is apparently at odds with their interests. If you’ve ever been there, the place is a dump; years of decline & depopulation that Lab failed to address when in power #Hartlepool
compounded, enormously by 11 years of crushing austerity and now Brexit. So why do poor people apparently vote against their interests? Because they are lied to on an industrial scale by newspapers & the BBC, which has been captured & subverted by the Tory Party. Because they
are influenced by the populist, reactionary shit spread by “friends” on Facebook & don’t have the education to discern fact from fiction because they’ve been failed by an education system that government ministers don’t care about because they pay not to use it. Because politics
