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COVID-19 in Lebanon🇱🇧: What does the age distribution of confirmed cases tell us about under-reporting of cases?
A comparison with South Korea 🇰🇷 China 🇨🇳 & Italy 🇮🇹
@mophleb @DRM_Lebanon @WHOLebanon @thehealthnerds
#Lebanon #COVID19 #healthNERDS
A comparison with South Korea 🇰🇷 China 🇨🇳 & Italy 🇮🇹
@mophleb @DRM_Lebanon @WHOLebanon @thehealthnerds
#Lebanon #COVID19 #healthNERDS
1/ Age is an important factor not only because older people may have diminished immune function, but also because chronic conditions like cardiovascular disease & diabetes (key risk factors for worse outcomes in COVID-19) are much more prevalent in those over 50 years old.
2/ As of April 11:
Lebanon had a total of 630 cases |20 deaths (CFR= 3.2%)
South Korea had a total of 10,480 cases | 211 deaths (CFR= 2.0%)
China had a total of 82,800 cases | 3,339 deaths (CFR= 2.3%)
Italy had a total of 152,300 cases | 19,500 deaths (CFR= 12.5%)
Lebanon had a total of 630 cases |20 deaths (CFR= 3.2%)
South Korea had a total of 10,480 cases | 211 deaths (CFR= 2.0%)
China had a total of 82,800 cases | 3,339 deaths (CFR= 2.3%)
Italy had a total of 152,300 cases | 19,500 deaths (CFR= 12.5%)
@mophleb @DRM_Lebanon @WHOLebanon and for those -prematurely- celebrating the containment of COVID19 in Lebanon 🇱🇧; check this out please 👇
#Lebanon #COVID19 #healthNERDS
@thehealthnerds
#Lebanon #COVID19 #healthNERDS
@thehealthnerds
1/ The only certain # we currently have is the total # of deaths. As shown in previous thread & based on an approach that is used in other countries, you can estimate the “potential” # of cases that we should have in order to have 19 deaths on April 7.
2/ How to do this?
Examine different case fatality ratios (CFRs): 1%, 2.5%, 5%
Examine different times to death: 17 days & 10 days
# of deaths on April 7 = 19
Calculate potential # of cases based on different growth rates (doubling time: 8 days, 10 days)
Examine different case fatality ratios (CFRs): 1%, 2.5%, 5%
Examine different times to death: 17 days & 10 days
# of deaths on April 7 = 19
Calculate potential # of cases based on different growth rates (doubling time: 8 days, 10 days)
1/ TESTING TESTING & MORE TESTING! 🇱🇧
Why the confirmed # of COVID-19 cases in Lebanon highly underestimates the actual # of cases?
@mophleb @WHOLebanon @thehealthnerds
#Lebanon #COVID19 #FlattenTheCurve #RaiseTheLine #healthNERDS
Why the confirmed # of COVID-19 cases in Lebanon highly underestimates the actual # of cases?
@mophleb @WHOLebanon @thehealthnerds
#Lebanon #COVID19 #FlattenTheCurve #RaiseTheLine #healthNERDS
2/ Keep in mind, we can never know the actual # of cases because we cannot test the whole population. However, we should do as many tests as possible – especially during this stage of the outbreak – to gage the scale of the problem, isolate/ treat +ve cases & plan next steps.
3/ If we can’t test the whole population, how can we know the actual # of cases? We try to estimate; one way of doing so is by using the case fatality rate (CFR). CFR reflects the severity of the disease in a particular context, at a particular time, in a particular population.
