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As @PrestonMui @employamerica reminded us, slowdown in hiring is a leading indicator of recession, layoffs lag.
Official hiring rate estimate @BLS_gov #JOLTS has declined since Fed started ⬆️rates in Mar 2022. We'll get Dec estimate on Wed.
Official hiring rate estimate @BLS_gov #JOLTS has declined since Fed started ⬆️rates in Mar 2022. We'll get Dec estimate on Wed.
Hiring is the slowest key labor market indicator to show up in official statistics.
An advance signal is available from small-biz payroll data @GustoHQ @parduel, Doesn't parallel JOLTS but broadly agrees.
Dec data: continued decline, consistent with employer demand weakening
An advance signal is available from small-biz payroll data @GustoHQ @parduel, Doesn't parallel JOLTS but broadly agrees.
Dec data: continued decline, consistent with employer demand weakening
A timely but indirect, noisy proxy for a hiring slowdown is when new UI claims are not rising but continuing claims are.
That's exactly what weekly UI data has been showing.
(Hiring & job finding rate share #hires as numerators but differ in denominator)
That's exactly what weekly UI data has been showing.
(Hiring & job finding rate share #hires as numerators but differ in denominator)
