Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #hkexit
Most recents (11)
🛑 Rigid Currency Pegs Break 🛑 As an update to our seminal work on Hong Kong 🇭🇰 back in 2019, conditions today (both macroeconomic and political) will likely cause the 39-yr HKD peg to the USD to be stressed enough to cause a cathartic revaluation of the HKD. Participants 1/10 
have little understanding of the fragility of such rigid relationships. Pundits from the HKMA and academia frequently report the HKD currency board is a ‘perfect’ and ‘sustainable’ relationship.This self-serving market affirmation has become somewhat of a financial apostolic 2/10
Creed that’s flawed at its foundation. Today’s HKMA ‘excess reserves’ that are reportedly liquid and ready to be used to defend the 7.85 peg amount to $42.9B. HK banking deposits are $728B in USD and $965B USD worth of HKD. If only 5.8% of USD deposits leave HK 3/10
When reassuring yourselves about various levels of FX reserves, it’s imperative that we all remember what happened to Korea during the last Asian Currency Crisis. Korea was showing the largest pile of USD fx reserves in Asia. When the Thai baht broke the peg in 97’, 1/9
Investors were sanguine about Korea due to the reserve balance they were reporting. The problem was that the Korean central bank had ‘lent’ those reserves to their banks who had spent them defending the peg. The finance minister of Korea called US Treasury Secretary in a 2/9
panic and told him Korea had a desperate need for a USD loan from the US Treasury/FED. When rigid structures go south, all of the math, all of the belief,and then all of the reserves vaporize at such breathtaking speed. Those unprepared at the outset couldn’t get positioned 3/9
China predictably spewing BS propaganda with its tabloids just before it smacks down HK with a full Article 23 implementation. HK to become another failed city within China 27 years earlier than the Sino-British Joint Declaration stipulated. China reneging on another signed deal.
It’s over for HK as we knew it- CCP arrests "just hours after China’s top representative office in the semiautonomous city declared it is not bound by restrictions in Hong Kong’s constitution, the Basic Law, that bar Chinese government from interfering in local affairs."
The US 🇺🇸 will not submit to a communist government that doesn’t respect its own people,basic human rights, or the international order. With 85,000 Americans and 200,000 Brits in HK,this joker of a PLA commander is subtly threatening war. @AmbCuiTiankai @AmbLiuXiaoMing #Chinazi
And if @SecPompeo has to opine on the supposed “autonomy” of HK to @realDonaldTrump,it’s clear to the entire world that it was gone long ago. Time to treat HK as just another city in China where good people live their Owellian Nightmares daily. #HKexit #onecountryonesystem #china
Warning - Graphic content of intestines coming through a stab wound inflicted by the CCP agent in these photos. Let’s see if carrie lam(b) tracks this attempted murderer through all of her facial recognition cameras and arrests him..Or will she invite him to dinner to thank him?
Hong Kong and chinese military “police” mutilate the genitals of a peaceful HK protestor who is forcibly restrained on a hospital bed. Those pesky cameras show what xi and Failed lam(b) are up to. #HKexit
The brutality of the ccp is tough to watch here. This is what the good people of HK are fighting against. @AmbCuiTiankai @HuXijin_GT @SecPompeo @realDonaldTrump
Failed leader carrie lam(b) and her boss xi really don’t like this video. ccp Twitter monitors have sent multiple complaints to Twitter about this posting of police brutality in HK. Truth (and especially a video) is the greatest disinfectant. @AmbCuiTiankai @SecPompeo #HKexit
BREAKING NEWS - carrie lam(b) HAS NOT FORMALLY WITHDRAWN THE EXTRADITION BILL. Her statement says she will propose withdrawing the bill at the next LegCo meeting after October 1st. She is as slippery as her boss. Remember, xi has a majority of votes bought in the LegCo if it 1/
Comes to a vote. Thanks to @BaldingsWorld for parsing through the disgraced leader’s remarks. @Reuters @bloomberg @EpochTimes She is simply trying to get past October 1st and the commie military parade praising xi. #HKexit #AntiELAB
lamb’s office says the proposal will be withdrawn with no vote when the LegCo resumes in mid-October. How convenient for carrie and xi that this date in the future is after Beijing’s key anniversary. Leung is “optimistic about its target of resuming operation in mid-October”
Xinhua’s photos showed that the PLA garrison had changed its armoured vehicles, of which it has about 50,from Type 092, the military version,to WJ-03B, the model used by armed police. The changes suggest the garrison is ready for anti-riot missions #HKexit @SariArhoHavren
Looks like a normal “troop rotation” @CarlZha “The body of the replacement model has more holes, allowing troops inside to shoot rubber bullets, tear gas and other anti-riot weapons”
Some call a one-way troop movement a “rotation”. I tend to call them “buildups” or simply an “invasion”.
Anyone read the Emergency Regulations Ordinance that carrie lam(b) is considering invoking?! The HK government can legally take your property, force you to work for the benefit of the government, deport you (to China?)...and make anything they do legal 1/ elegislation.gov.hk/hk/cap241@2018…
And remember, the High Court in HK is actually the standing committee of the politburo in china. Get ready for Martial Law in HK. #HKexit #china
Actually the Standing Committee of National People’s Congress is the judicial body in charge of HK’s High Court
When china conducts its brutal and bloody crackdown in the streets of HK, they won’t continue to use the criminal cowards of the triad gangs, it will be the PAP (not the PLA). They will pour into HK primarily from Shenzhen. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27… #HKexit #NoExtradictionToChina
There is a full garrison (6,000+) of PLA already in HK that will assist. No matter how one looks at it, it’s china’s murderous heavy hand that will act nationally.
Also from Zhuhai and Zhanjiang
HKD running for the exits before beijing’s planned massacre. Investors have lost trust...and history tells us what happens next #bankingandcurrencycrisis #HK #china #monsters
On a more technical note, spot and forwards have inverted without rates inverting. The currency is trading on an exodus regardless of where the monetary authorities set rates. #MassExodus #hk
HKD “EMERGING MARKET BLOW UP” Typically, a higher HKD/USD rate spread would result in high points, but lower spot. However due to the emerging tail risks, spot and points are moving in the same direction – a correlation typical for emerging market blow up scenarios. #HKexit
