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And now, finally, @NHC_Atlantic has put up a new advisory on #TSKarl #HurricaneKarl
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL...
Current satellite imagery shows why NHC thinks Karl will also be pushed through the Tehuantepecer wind gap for a 2nd time - its all a matter of timing. Karl is already clearly outside their cone, the railway lines show where a ridge is building as dry air pushes south.
You can see the scenario in the latest GFS model here. But bear in mind that this is based on the assumption that Karl is still a tropical storm. And as you can see it is expected to decay very rapidly over night.
Its now pretty clear what is going on. #HurricaneKarl #TSKarl is caught in an atmospheric river generated by #TD99E (in a similar way to how #HurricaneIan was) and headed towards florida - not Mexico.
The second overlay is a special "steering" product that allows you to see where a cyclone is headed - it focusses on the 500-850hpa wind range (1.5 to 5.5kms high winds ) which are particularly important for pushing cyclones.
And as you can see #HurricaneKarl is being steered towards northern Florida at present.
This IR satelllite image [src: @TropicalTidbits] shows #TSKarl is unquestionably now #HurricaneKarl. It also shows it is not moving towards the Mexico coast line as per the current @NHC_Atlantic forecast - but moving NE. And the transformation into this was 3 hours ago.
Here are its first three hours as a hurricane.
Alas it appears the shear has moved south following #Karl and it is already pulling the center apart, or at least tipping it over.
There is something very unusual (to me) in this #HurricaneKarl set up, sitting over southern Mexico - a small high pressure vortex, I didn't know something like this was possible.
Could this be artifact of the Tehuantepecer event. No wonder the #99E system is not developing.
Could this be artifact of the Tehuantepecer event. No wonder the #99E system is not developing.
Very very weird #Karl.
This has to be the most spectacular cyclone genesis ever! The remnants of #HurricaneJulia become (what is most likely) #HurricaneKarl.
Close up view of the last six hours. It looks as if the #TSKarl (soon to be #HurricaneKarl reversed direction again and is heading back north into the shear, and soon the night. It will be interesting to see whether it continues to strengthen and survives the night.
This is a truly extraordinary storm. One for the history books. The role of the separated southern storm (the other part of #HurricaneJulia's remnants cut in half by the Tehuantepecer now over the Pacific which was feeding Karl in making this possible deserves closer examination.
