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Nick P Bassill
@NickPBassill
So #Laura's current position has been repeatedly south of what models forecast. Let's examine why that might be the case.

Look at this GFS trend in upper-level PV (shaded) and 850 vorticity valid at 00Z. Note how #Marco gets stronger with each forecast, and Laura dips south.
As #Marco is (correctly) shown to be stronger, latent heat release increases, and contributes to the upper level ridge to the north of #Laura (east of Marco). You can see this by the steady increase in deep blues (low PV values) with a stronger Marco. (same loop here as above)
That could be a coincidence, but now let's use some amusingly poor #HWRF parent domain forecasts to diagnose this impact. As above, here's a model trend in the outer domain of #Laura's forecasts, which only model #Marco on the lower-res parent domain (and poorly, I might add).
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#HWRF #Marco #Laura

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