Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ian
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Mexico's West coast is preparing for the landfall of Major #HurricaneRoslyn in coming hours. A Code Red maximum warning has been issued in Puerto Vallarta a tourist resort town south of the landfall location of the center of the hurricane. vallartadaily.com/civil-protecti… 
The forecast path of the hurricane is similar in relation to the coast line to that of #HurricaneIan, and #Roslyn is of simlar strength.
#Roslyn will cause significant storm surge to its East as it travels up the coast, blowing water ashore along a 462km stretch of coastline.
#Roslyn will cause significant storm surge to its East as it travels up the coast, blowing water ashore along a 462km stretch of coastline.
Puerto Vallarta is not the only coastal town in its path and, not the most vulnerable. These three towns are closer to the landfall point which is over a low lying flood plain.
If this is an eyewall replacement cycle we can see here with #Roslyn, then it barely missed a beat. Similar to the extremely rapid strengthening #Ian experienced after crossing Western Cuba.
Visual floater image of roughly the same period.
And in black and white - high resolution.
#Roslyn is shaping up to be another truly terrible Hurricane with massive size & widespread heavy rain (flooding) impacts, similar to #Julia & #Ian.
But with much more time to strengthen in favourable conditions #Roslyn also forecast to develop major major hurricane wind speed.
But with much more time to strengthen in favourable conditions #Roslyn also forecast to develop major major hurricane wind speed.
New NHC advice now predicts 95 Knot winds on landfall the threshold for Cat 3 Major Hurricane status, but strengthening beyond that is possible with Landfall not expected till 7pm Sunday.
Current GFS model rainfall estimates at 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours.
#ExremeWeather #ClimateChange continuing event coverage initiation.
Vietnam has just seen landfall of a huge Tropical Storm - and now three more cyclones are forecast to follow the same path. The first being #Nemeng. Another slow wet giant storm.
Vietnam has just seen landfall of a huge Tropical Storm - and now three more cyclones are forecast to follow the same path. The first being #Nemeng. Another slow wet giant storm.
Yesterday Typhoon #Sonca made landfall in Vietnam as a Tropical Storm - the 25th named storm of 2022. #Sonca was a huge slow moving wet behemoth like #Ian and #Julia (ATL). This characteristic has been a pattern with many post equinox nth. hemisphere storms.
#Sonca has also reportedly caused 4 fatalities already - but the event has only just finished.
Myself and a few @GallagherGlobal @GallagherRe_ colleagues spent October 4-7 in Florida analyzing damage from Hurricane #Ian. The following thread will cover some of our findings.
All photos sourced to Steve Bowen (@SteveBowenWx).
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All photos sourced to Steve Bowen (@SteveBowenWx).
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The overall scope of damage in Southwest Florida is considerable, extensive, and will be extremely costly. It will take some communities years to recover. Among the devastation, however, emerged some positive results. More on that later.
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Peak observed winds were registered in Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, Cape Coral, and Fort Myers. We witnessed widespread roof damage, but primarily to older building stock that was not built to withstand 100+ mph winds. There was also a high volume of downed trees.
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#CentralAmerica #ClimateChangeNOW #ExtremeWeather #HurricaneJulia #IMPACT 16-day assessment THREAD.
It is time to consider what is about to happen in Central America from a #LossAndDamages perspective.
It is time to consider what is about to happen in Central America from a #LossAndDamages perspective.
With less than 72 hours till #HurricaneJulia's expected landfall in Nicaragua, #TD13L #PC13L #Invest91L has already wreaked untold havoc in Venezeula, it is now over Colombia. The death toll is rising.
What is ahead is dangerous. #ExtremeWeather impacts for 200 million souls.
What is ahead is dangerous. #ExtremeWeather impacts for 200 million souls.
All of these countries are forecast to recieve extreme rainfall on coastal areas (where people are concentrated) and in many cases deep inland.
The purple and white fringed areas in the map (Top Right) are forecast to recieve 7-25 inches of rain.
The purple and white fringed areas in the map (Top Right) are forecast to recieve 7-25 inches of rain.
Can anyone explain to me why the recent @WhiteHouse summit on child hunger had no mention of #breastfeeding? The literal food designed for human children? That we make with our bodies while we eat Cheetos and watch Drag Race?
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In @POTUS speech he talks about investing in “startups” and “innovation,” but like…we already invented it? 50% of us carry the technology around in our boobs all day long. It’s a sustainable, cost-effective solution staring us in the face.
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I’m a social scientist so I get that the causes of child hunger are complex, and we need multiple solutions. But why are we ignoring this super obvious one?
…reastfeedingjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
Good early nutrition can buffer children against stressors in later childhood. But also…
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…reastfeedingjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
Good early nutrition can buffer children against stressors in later childhood. But also…
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#ClimateChangeNow Update THREAD.
The unusual, unpredictable and #ExtremeWeather of #HurricaneIAN is still continuing in the North East of the US. The remnant low has strengthened and remains parked off the Maryland coast.
This storm has now spent nearly a week over the US.
The unusual, unpredictable and #ExtremeWeather of #HurricaneIAN is still continuing in the North East of the US. The remnant low has strengthened and remains parked off the Maryland coast.
This storm has now spent nearly a week over the US.
Last night I posted a fairly discursive thread looking at the Tropical Atlantic, and some threats in the long range GFS forecast - including the threat posted by the remnants of #HurricaneIan
Here we are looking in particular at the stationary low pressure center off the coast of Maryland (Top Left) in the animation above. The impacts are becoming more significant now as the remnants of #IAN - back over the Atlantic are strengthening again.
Last 12 hours in DC.
Last 12 hours in DC.
Thread: The #HurricaneIan death toll and how to reduce the next hurricane death toll (USA)
👉Currently 44 officially reported deaths in FL, and 4 in NC.
👉As always, it will increase, over about two weeks.
👉Many such deaths are preventable.
Source: fdle.state.fl.us/News/2022/Sept…
👉Currently 44 officially reported deaths in FL, and 4 in NC.
👉As always, it will increase, over about two weeks.
👉Many such deaths are preventable.
Source: fdle.state.fl.us/News/2022/Sept…
Here is the official page to check for updates on the Hurricane Ian death toll in Florida:
fdle.state.fl.us/news/news
I'm going to list some of the most common ways to die in a hurricane.
But first I'm going to talk about the political culture in FL that worsens the problem.
fdle.state.fl.us/news/news
I'm going to list some of the most common ways to die in a hurricane.
But first I'm going to talk about the political culture in FL that worsens the problem.
And by the way, every major issue like hurricane harm reduction is already political and politicized. I'm not politicizing a tragedy. I'm giving y'all the honest truth about how to save more lives next time. I consider it my civic and ethical duty.
"B.C. saw less rain in 3 months than Hurricane Ian dumped in 1 minute."
-much of BC has seen hot & dry weather served with a side of smoke, including in our beautiful temperate rainforest
Our new alien world.
#ClimateCrisis #Ian #HurricaneIan
theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/articl…
-much of BC has seen hot & dry weather served with a side of smoke, including in our beautiful temperate rainforest
Our new alien world.
#ClimateCrisis #Ian #HurricaneIan
theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/articl…
@s_guilbeault are you paying attention to the west coast?
Right now children are *again* going to school breathing smoke. The 107 & 153 AQI here are samples from the #Vancouver region this morning
A few weeks ago, we hit the purple zone (the image says it all!)
#ClimateCrisis
Right now children are *again* going to school breathing smoke. The 107 & 153 AQI here are samples from the #Vancouver region this morning
A few weeks ago, we hit the purple zone (the image says it all!)
#ClimateCrisis
@s_guilbeault - the deniers are out in full force
You could be doing *much* more to talk about the running impacts of the #ClimateCrisis. It is not 'just' the one off disasters as terrible as those are
Millions are now breathing smoke, more & more regularly in #BritishColumbia
You could be doing *much* more to talk about the running impacts of the #ClimateCrisis. It is not 'just' the one off disasters as terrible as those are
Millions are now breathing smoke, more & more regularly in #BritishColumbia
Hurricane #Ian update as of 3 PM ET:
◾️There are approximately 1.8M customers in Florida without power, including 243k customers in South Carolina and 71k in North Carolina.
◾️As Ian passes, utilities have begun damage assessments and restoration efforts as conditions permit. 1/
◾️There are approximately 1.8M customers in Florida without power, including 243k customers in South Carolina and 71k in North Carolina.
◾️As Ian passes, utilities have begun damage assessments and restoration efforts as conditions permit. 1/
◾️Utilities in the impacted area pre-staged crews, equipment, and materials in prior days to prepare for the storm.
◾️Electric industry representatives reported on September 29 that more than 44,000 workers from 32 states are preparing to assist with power restoration. 2/
◾️Electric industry representatives reported on September 29 that more than 44,000 workers from 32 states are preparing to assist with power restoration. 2/
Overall, Florida utilities report that Ian mainly impacted the distribution system, with no significant damage report to transmission assets. energy.gov/ceser/hurrican… 3/
Seeing some outlets publish incorrect or misleading links between #Ian and climate change (CC).
Things the science suggests CC is linked to:
— more rapid intensification
— wetter storms
— stronger storms
— farther north
Not linked to:
— number of storms
— size of storms
Things the science suggests CC is linked to:
— more rapid intensification
— wetter storms
— stronger storms
— farther north
Not linked to:
— number of storms
— size of storms
Moreover, attributing Ian — a major hurricane during peak hurricane season in the most hurricane-prone state in the U.S. — fully to CC is simply false.
We can examine other elements (intensification rate, rainfall, etc.) down the road.
We can examine other elements (intensification rate, rainfall, etc.) down the road.
Likewise, all major hurricanes are predisposed to producing catastrophic storm surge. That’s not a new thing and not a climate change thing. (Argument could be made that a bit of sea level rise means acutely worse surge.)
Responsible reporting means transparent climate science.
Responsible reporting means transparent climate science.
Thread: #HurricaneIan Day 2 in the US, my thoughts.
So I noticed a ton of damaged or destroyed boats either half-sunk at their moorings, or washed miles inland. As always happens. And it got me thinking... there are better options...
weather.com/storms/hurrica…
So I noticed a ton of damaged or destroyed boats either half-sunk at their moorings, or washed miles inland. As always happens. And it got me thinking... there are better options...
weather.com/storms/hurrica…
Boat owners and users had 4-5 days' notice that #Ian was likely to develop and landfall somewhere in FL. The forecast track became more certain over time, but even at 2 days out, the info was pretty solid. If it surprised you, then IMO you weren't listening properly to the data.
Not everyone would've had the option of doing this, but some did. It was possible to load up with lifesaving supplies and head out into the Caribbean to circle back behind the storm, boat intact, with the ability to assist many, many people in SW Florida.
J/s, it was possible.
J/s, it was possible.
This is what I was worried about the interaction between the atmospheric river and #HurricaneIAN.
The Wastern leading edge of the Atmospheric River is now pumping directly into #IAN and it appears to be strengthening over land. The Eyewall is not yet complete.
The Wastern leading edge of the Atmospheric River is now pumping directly into #IAN and it appears to be strengthening over land. The Eyewall is not yet complete.
Earlier threads discussing the interaction phenomena.
A closeup satelite view of what is likelu the center of #Hurricane IAN coming ashore at Charleston half an hour ago.
🌀Comment #Ian a-t-il pu s'intensifier en si peu de temps❓
⏱️Moins de 22h pour s’intensifier et passer du statut de tempête tropicale à celui d’ouragan cat.3 au moment de frapper #Cuba, puis cat.4 avant de balayer #Floride.
Lien(s) avec #Changementclimatique❓🤔
📽️@NOAA
🧵⤵️
⏱️Moins de 22h pour s’intensifier et passer du statut de tempête tropicale à celui d’ouragan cat.3 au moment de frapper #Cuba, puis cat.4 avant de balayer #Floride.
Lien(s) avec #Changementclimatique❓🤔
📽️@NOAA
🧵⤵️
📊Selon données du @NHC_Atlantic , il y a eu ces 10 dernières années 25 % de tempêtes à intensification rapide de plus qu’il y a 40 ans. Et entre 2017 et 2021, 30 tempêtes à intensification rapide dans l’Atlantique et 32 dans le Pacifique oriental.
📸@NOAA @SteveBowenWx
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📸@NOAA @SteveBowenWx
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🌡️📈 Ce 28/09, @NASAEarth publiait une carte montrant les T°C de surface de la mer au-dessus du golfe du Mexique indiquant "qu'une eau aussi chaude peut soutenir et intensifier les ouragans ... ".
📸
Qu'en est-il ❓🤔
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Qu'en est-il ❓🤔
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Hurricane #Ian is starting to undergo extratropical transition tonight on its way to the Carolinas. Notice the big dry slot sneaking in from the SW and frontal boundary extending from #Ian's south into the Bahamas...
Fwiw, one of the simplest methods I use to discern b/t tropical & extratropical cyclones is to locate the subtropical jet & assume everything poleward/north of that is extratropical, while to the south = tropical. #Ian is in the middle rn => "hybrid" warm core/subtropical cyclone
This method checks out here. PV x-sect for #Ian has elements of both tropical & subtropical cyclones atm. Low-mid lvl PV tower overlaid by an outflow high is characteristic of tropical cyclones but the intruding upper trough from the NW is the hallmark of an extratropical cyclone
Hurricane Hunters sampling #Ian this evening have found the storm to be strengthening, arguably more than what was expected from this morning's forecasts, w/ SFMR of up to ~ 75 kts (85 mph) in #Ian's NW quadrant.
#ncwx #scwx
#ncwx #scwx
#HurricaneIan Update: As of 3PM ET, there were ~2.7 million power outages in Florida. As Ian passes, utilities will begin damage assessments and restoration efforts, as conditions permit. 1/
Tropical storm-force winds are beginning to impact Georgia and South Carolina, although there are no significant power outages associated with the storm in either state yet.
📢Attention #NC, #SC, and #GA residents. Read more to stay informed: 2/
📢Attention #NC, #SC, and #GA residents. Read more to stay informed: 2/
If you lose power due to #HurricaneIan, follow these tips to stay safe. 3/
#Florida #Georgia #SouthCarolina #NorthCarolina
#Florida #Georgia #SouthCarolina #NorthCarolina
The gradual move NE on the ECMWF for LF location tomorrow:
Mostly due to starting point/speed off FL. *Image not updated for 12z run yet:
whoops (ECMWF)... 🙄
🌪
(1) Today's story was the destruction caused by Hurricane Ian in Florida. It is one of the strongest hurricanes ever to strike Florida, and in the coming days, we will learn more about the damage and victims.
🧵 Beginning of a thread
#HurricaneIan
(1) Today's story was the destruction caused by Hurricane Ian in Florida. It is one of the strongest hurricanes ever to strike Florida, and in the coming days, we will learn more about the damage and victims.
🧵 Beginning of a thread
#HurricaneIan
🌪
(2) Expect lots of shocking photos and heartbreaking videos on social media that will remind us of the power of nature, specifically when boosted by the additional energy we have trapped in the system.
🧵 #IanHurricane #Hurricane_Ian
(2) Expect lots of shocking photos and heartbreaking videos on social media that will remind us of the power of nature, specifically when boosted by the additional energy we have trapped in the system.
🧵 #IanHurricane #Hurricane_Ian
🌪
(3) Man-made climate change has raised sea levels and warmed the oceans, which fueled Ian to a hurricane that, at a certain point, was just two mph shy of a Category 5.
🧵 #climatecrisis #Ian #Hurricane
(3) Man-made climate change has raised sea levels and warmed the oceans, which fueled Ian to a hurricane that, at a certain point, was just two mph shy of a Category 5.
🧵 #climatecrisis #Ian #Hurricane
"They could have evacuated."
"Why didn't they evacuate?"
"That's what you get for not evacuating."
As a lifelong Florida resident who grew up low-income on Sanibel Island which has been destroyed by #Ian hear me when I say this:
Evacuating is HARD.
"Why didn't they evacuate?"
"That's what you get for not evacuating."
As a lifelong Florida resident who grew up low-income on Sanibel Island which has been destroyed by #Ian hear me when I say this:
Evacuating is HARD.
You need to figure out where to go, which is problematic because hurricanes MOVE QUICKLY and are HARD TO PREDICT.
So maybe you just need to go inland?
But maybe you need to leave the state?
But maybe the rest of the seaboard will get hit too?
So maybe you just need to go inland?
But maybe you need to leave the state?
But maybe the rest of the seaboard will get hit too?
Let's say you decide to yeet off the East Coast until the storm passes.
How are you getting to that place?
Are you driving? Is that fast enough? Can you get everyone in the car? Will you be able to afford the gas? Where will you stay overnight?
How are you getting to that place?
Are you driving? Is that fast enough? Can you get everyone in the car? Will you be able to afford the gas? Where will you stay overnight?
Yachts washed ashore in Fort Myers By #Ian storm surge. More pics below
Large concrete doc three blocks inland
Sailboat
#ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNow
#HurricaneIAN Update thread.
Near live 6hr satellite imagery #IAN beginning its exit of Florida over Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy Space Center. And it looks like it started strengthening significantly before it's center crossed the coast.
#HurricaneIAN Update thread.
Near live 6hr satellite imagery #IAN beginning its exit of Florida over Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy Space Center. And it looks like it started strengthening significantly before it's center crossed the coast.
This wider angle view helps put the storm into wider perspective, in particular its size, and the importance and significance of the massive convective area to the East of Florida from which #TSIan #HurricaneIAN is being fuelled.
The big question now is how will #HurricaneIAN interact with this atmospheric river as it crosses the Atlantic heading towards the Carolinas, specifically, will this extremely complex moist air field strengthen or inhibit intensification.
