Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #inr
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#FX #THREAD #STUDENT
Bank of Interenational Settlements BIS just published thier 2022 #BISTriennialSurvey (took place in April 2022).
This is what I learnt....
In 2022, Global foreign exchange (FX) market turnover/day breached $7.5 trillion/day on a Net Basis Value.
Bank of Interenational Settlements BIS just published thier 2022 #BISTriennialSurvey (took place in April 2022).
This is what I learnt....
In 2022, Global foreign exchange (FX) market turnover/day breached $7.5 trillion/day on a Net Basis Value.
This growth was entirely due to Inter-dealer activity rather than end customers.
Share of SPOT transactions in Global FX market turnover fell from 30% to 28% over the past few years. Rest was made up by Fwds. Swaps, etc
Share of SPOT transactions in Global FX market turnover fell from 30% to 28% over the past few years. Rest was made up by Fwds. Swaps, etc
SPOT transactions could include Trade Related, Foreign Portfolio Buying/Selling (Equity & Debt), Interest Payments on loans, Remittances inbound (NRIs) /outbound (Education, Holidays, Medical, Overseas investments etc). So in effect, just TRADE RELATED Sport FX is barely…
RBI is playing with FIRE abt intervention in the FWD USDINR market…. Your sins with come back to haunt you … unlike Equities which can be manipulated for years, you can’t do that same with FX and RATES
@RBI EXTENT Of Forward Intervention is #MindBoggling in one #CHART. You can see INR 2yr & 3yr Implied Forward Premium is 7.8% & 7.59% Respectively
& has Actually Increased while the near term 12 Month INR forward is just 2.5%. This kind of DIVERGENCE is SCARY.#RETWEET #MUSTREAD
& has Actually Increased while the near term 12 Month INR forward is just 2.5%. This kind of DIVERGENCE is SCARY.#RETWEET #MUSTREAD
This is called Timing !!
My tweet was at 1.26pm IST. See the INTRADAY on the INR today … the breakdown happens at 1.57pm IST
I guess I was just lucky I guess since there was NO MOVEMENT in the DXY or regional currencies like the JPY (see Intraday Charts of JPY, INR, DXY)
My tweet was at 1.26pm IST. See the INTRADAY on the INR today … the breakdown happens at 1.57pm IST
I guess I was just lucky I guess since there was NO MOVEMENT in the DXY or regional currencies like the JPY (see Intraday Charts of JPY, INR, DXY)
The global economy has changed dramatically this year, and financial markets have turned volatile. The question on everyone’s mind now is…
(1/8)
#globaleconomy #financialmarkets #nifty
(1/8)
#globaleconomy #financialmarkets #nifty
Will recession hit India? How will it be different from past recessions that our country has faced?
Let’s look at some data points.
(2/8)
#recession #india #economy
Let’s look at some data points.
(2/8)
#recession #india #economy
Based on the RBI’s assessment, the Real GDP projection is retained at 7.2% for FY23. This comes on the back of strong investment activity, improving bank credit and rising capacity expansion.
(3/8)
#rbi #gdp #centralbanks
(3/8)
#rbi #gdp #centralbanks
#FX Should #INR be compared to the #EURO, #JPY and #GBP ?
Thanks for asking your question…
Common #Narrative that #INR has done well when compared to the #JPY, #GBP and #EURO. It’s a Entirely FLAWED Argument and many Global Macro guys must be laughing at our TV Experts.
WHY?
Thanks for asking your question…
Common #Narrative that #INR has done well when compared to the #JPY, #GBP and #EURO. It’s a Entirely FLAWED Argument and many Global Macro guys must be laughing at our TV Experts.
WHY?
Let’s look at JPY. This country runs a large current account/trade surplus. Yet it’s currency depreciates ? Why. COZ the central banks wants INFLATION. And it doing YCC at 0.25%. It will continue to do YCC (Print JPY) until inflation hits a respectable amount. But Japan is
Growing old. And Old Economies don’t witness inflation. Coz Old people don’t consumer new cars, consumer durables or new houses… so commodity demand falls and inflation falls. So to drive inflation, they print money. So the JPY depreciates vs it’s natural tendency to Appreciate
#THREAD on #WHAT is #RBI likely to do tomorrow at the #MPC and #Why and how it would #IMPACT Markets? #RETWEET
(1) A rate Hikes I’d probably 30-40bps
(2) More #Importantly, a 25-50bp CRR Hike as well
What are the Drivers of this Decision?
(1) A rate Hikes I’d probably 30-40bps
(2) More #Importantly, a 25-50bp CRR Hike as well
What are the Drivers of this Decision?
RBI biggest Driver of Policy in my view is FOREX.
India is suffering Daily Forex Outflows Due to
(1) high Commodity Prices (Oil & Coal etc)
(2) FPI outflows
(3) Rising Remittances while FDI has slowed down
Recall that Jndia is still NOT added to the JPM EM debt Index (NA)
India is suffering Daily Forex Outflows Due to
(1) high Commodity Prices (Oil & Coal etc)
(2) FPI outflows
(3) Rising Remittances while FDI has slowed down
Recall that Jndia is still NOT added to the JPM EM debt Index (NA)
Two ways to arrest the INR depreciation is to raise Rates (REPO) or reduce Liquidity (CRR)
But we know India has a Demand Issue.
More #IMPORTANTLY, higher Rates will HURT the Govts Borrowing Cost and Eventually Raise System Deposit Rates
But we know India has a Demand Issue.
More #IMPORTANTLY, higher Rates will HURT the Govts Borrowing Cost and Eventually Raise System Deposit Rates
#USDCNH dropped ~250pip 6.4100 to 6.3850 yday on prospect of Saudi Arabia SA receiving oil payment from China in #CNY instead of #USD
▪️ Pricing Ccy is different from Invoice/Settlement Ccy - SA can receive CNY but oil may still be priced in $$
1/5
wsj.com/articles/saudi…
▪️ Pricing Ccy is different from Invoice/Settlement Ccy - SA can receive CNY but oil may still be priced in $$
1/5
wsj.com/articles/saudi…
▪️ China oil imports from SA ~$45bn pa, ~1.75 mbpd
▪️ What can SA do with CNY received
1. Pay in CNY for Chinese imports/services
2. Diversify FX Reserves into CNY away from USD
2a. Invest back into China onshore say CGBs
+ve for CNY internationalization
[SAMA FXReserves $420bn]
▪️ What can SA do with CNY received
1. Pay in CNY for Chinese imports/services
2. Diversify FX Reserves into CNY away from USD
2a. Invest back into China onshore say CGBs
+ve for CNY internationalization
[SAMA FXReserves $420bn]
Don’t miss a new accredited #tweetorial launching TOMORROW here on @cardiomet_CE. #Emergencymedicine #thrombosis researcher @md_pollack will be discussing safe, effective management of selected patients with venous thromboembolism (#VTE) from the #emergencydepartment.
It used to be SOOO much more complicated, but since we entered the era of the #DOACs, #lifeisgood! #Physicians #nurses #pharamcists all work together to make it happen, and all can earn CE/#CME here! @AlexSpyropoul @ScottKaatz @RenatoDLopes1 @GenoMerli @aakonc @vic_tapson
1) Welcome to a #tweetorial on the safe and effective management of acute venous #thromboembolism (#VTE) directly from the #emergencydepartment. This program is accredited for 0.50 credits for #physicians #nurses #pharmacists by @academiccme! I am @md_pollack.
In last 3 yeras #PKR dropped 45% to dollar compared to 3% & 16% drop in #Taka & #INR because when #Bangladesh & #India focused on improving economic fundamentals and let currencies adjust to market, #Pakistan focused on artificial overvaluation (2013-18) through ad hoc solutions.
As a result, they have improved economy at one hand and lower inflation, lower public debt at the other.
We lost on all three.
Remember!
Exchange rate is a price. You can distort it, but it distorts whole economy. You can hold it for a while, but it gets back with higher costs.
We lost on all three.
Remember!
Exchange rate is a price. You can distort it, but it distorts whole economy. You can hold it for a while, but it gets back with higher costs.
Ignoring economic fundamentals added further to pressure on rupee. And it dropped and dropped more than what would have been if we focused on improving economic fundamentals (case of Bangladesh and India).
#INR Macro check
▪️ #USDINR last 74.35 => ~1.4% off 75.35 highs => RBI's persistent #USD selling above 75.00 => with soft DXY, s/t consolidation in 74.00-75.35?
▪️ Risk Reversals, good gauge of nervousness, off highs (+1.6=>+0.9 vol) => less demand for USD Calls
1/11
▪️ #USDINR last 74.35 => ~1.4% off 75.35 highs => RBI's persistent #USD selling above 75.00 => with soft DXY, s/t consolidation in 74.00-75.35?
▪️ Risk Reversals, good gauge of nervousness, off highs (+1.6=>+0.9 vol) => less demand for USD Calls
1/11
▪️ Various economists revised India's GDP forecast lower
▪️ Good summary by @latha_venkatesh below
▪️ RBI GDP Projection +10.5% yoy FY 21/22 (Apr MPC)
▪️ Chart below: graphical overview of GDP trajectory - not that bad but whether worse yet to come?
2/11
▪️ Good summary by @latha_venkatesh below
▪️ RBI GDP Projection +10.5% yoy FY 21/22 (Apr MPC)
▪️ Chart below: graphical overview of GDP trajectory - not that bad but whether worse yet to come?
2/11
▪️ When GDP collapses =>Trade Deficit tends to improve=>lower imports on poor aggregate demand
▪️ Q2 Apr-Jun'20=>massive reduction in trade deficit as GDP collapsed
▪️ Assuming only mild GDP hit in this COVID wave, associated trade deficit improvement should also be smaller
3/11
▪️ Q2 Apr-Jun'20=>massive reduction in trade deficit as GDP collapsed
▪️ Assuming only mild GDP hit in this COVID wave, associated trade deficit improvement should also be smaller
3/11
Dün #USDTRY kurunda gözlenen oynaklığın Türkiye’ye özgü etkenlerden (örneğin TCMB’nin parasal genişleme uygulamaları) kaynaklandığı kanaatinde değilim. #USD karşısında gelişen piyasa ekonomileri (EM) paralarının çoğu
#ZAR #BRL #IDR #INR #MXN
hatta #XAUUSD benzer seyir izledi.
#ZAR #BRL #IDR #INR #MXN
hatta #XAUUSD benzer seyir izledi.
ABD’de salgınla ilgili görünümün kötüleşmesi, toparlanmanın başlangıçta düşünülenden daha uzun süreceğine ve ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerin en azından bir kısmının kalıcı olacağına ilişkin beklentiler sebebiyle genel bir olumsuzluk yaşanmış görünüyor.
Merkez Bankasının TL likiditesini genişletecek kararları belki TRY kurunun hareketini bir miktar etkilemiş olabilir ama bu ikincil görünüyor.
Bu dönemde sakin kalmak, ani kararlarla pozisyon değiştirmemek önemli.
Bu dönemde sakin kalmak, ani kararlarla pozisyon değiştirmemek önemli.
India MPC - Initial thoughts
1. No cut was a surprise. I had gone in with 35!
2. Looks like the RBI listened to the market which has been saying that further cuts will not help revive growth.
3. Clearly RBI is satisfied with transmission - 137 in call money and 218 in CPs! /1
1. No cut was a surprise. I had gone in with 35!
2. Looks like the RBI listened to the market which has been saying that further cuts will not help revive growth.
3. Clearly RBI is satisfied with transmission - 137 in call money and 218 in CPs! /1
India MPC - Initial thoughts
Contd.
4. Inflation per RBI seems a much greater risk than the market sees it. H2 revision from 3.5-3.7 to 4.7-5.1 is massive!
5. Growth revised down from 6.1 to 5 but there is belief that whatever the govt is doing to revive growth is /will work /2
Contd.
4. Inflation per RBI seems a much greater risk than the market sees it. H2 revision from 3.5-3.7 to 4.7-5.1 is massive!
5. Growth revised down from 6.1 to 5 but there is belief that whatever the govt is doing to revive growth is /will work /2
India MPC - Initial thoughts
contd
Bonds have expectedly sold off more than 10 bps. Expect 10 yr to settle around 6.50%. Rupee seems unchanged at 71.57 and Nifty is holding above 12k.
/3
contd
Bonds have expectedly sold off more than 10 bps. Expect 10 yr to settle around 6.50%. Rupee seems unchanged at 71.57 and Nifty is holding above 12k.
/3
Today we spent a chilly day out in the uMkhomazi catchment in the south of Kwa-Zulu Natal with a group of stakeholders who are mutually concerned about water security in the catchment #Water #SharedBenefits #SharedRisks
Why this catchment?
1. The Mkhomazi River is the 3rd largest river in KZN, with major infrastructure projects on the horizon #Water #InfrastructureDevelopment
1. The Mkhomazi River is the 3rd largest river in KZN, with major infrastructure projects on the horizon #Water #InfrastructureDevelopment
2. It's identified as possible solution to long term water deficits in uMngeni catchment #WaterDemand #InfrastructureDevelopment
