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📈📊 Real GDP during Q1 only rose 1.1% (saar), but don’t let that number fool you!
Let’s break down why economic growth wasn’t as weak as it seems and how inventories played a role in shaping the GDP 🧵
Let’s break down why economic growth wasn’t as weak as it seems and how inventories played a role in shaping the GDP 🧵
In Q1, the real GDP rose only 1.1% (saar), but there's more to the story. During Q4, inventories surged as consumers shifted from buying goods to services.
Goods producers stopped building unwanted inventories by cutting orders and lowering prices, reducing inventories.
Goods producers stopped building unwanted inventories by cutting orders and lowering prices, reducing inventories.
Excluding inventories, real final sales rose 3.4% during Q1, led by a solid 3.7% increase in real consumer spending.
This helped reduce inventories, and the chart shows the increase in real consumer spending.
This helped reduce inventories, and the chart shows the increase in real consumer spending.
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 10/13/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/10/13/dai…
Trent Telenko on Twitter and ThreadReader
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1447960…
#SupplyChains #ports #politics #trucking #shipping #inventories
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1447960…
#SupplyChains #ports #politics #trucking #shipping #inventories
Thanks to @steve_sedgwick & @cnbcKaren for having me on #CNBC #SquawkBox this AM.
What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!
I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
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#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE
What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!
I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
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#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE
Are people in denial or is the #centralbank money flood just drowning all the signals?
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#inflation
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#inflation
#Commodities, #freight, #carbon - and a whole lot besides - sure do cost a lot more, these days.
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Today’s robust #inflation data surprised in its strength and will likely persist in the short-run, and in some areas the intermediate-term, although we think that long-term the @federalreserve is largely correct in identifying real #economy price gains as mostly #transitory.
Much of today’s #inflation is due to reopening factors and supply constraints, but as #SupplyChains normalize from Covid-related shocks and #inventories rebuild, we expect much of the recent inflation will be transitory, with some stickiness in pricing pressure longer-run.
That may be especially the case where #inventory levels are harder to build up quickly and continued #demand from higher levels of #growth persist for at least the next year, or so.
As we head into the U.S. #election, there will continue to be a lot of noise that may lead to near-term #market #volatility, particularly since (as we’ve long argued) #markets appear to be able to only focus on one thing at a time!
Still, at times like this it’s crucial to focus on more consequential factors that will drive #markets in the years ahead: in this case, the powerful combination of @federalreserve #monetarypolicy and #fiscal rescue measures intended to keep the #economic engine on track.
We have all been witness to the recent volatility in the #Global #Oil markets. We have seen how disruptions in oil #Supply, be it from #SaudiArabia, #Nigeria, #Venezuela, #Iran or #Libya can cause upticks in the global #Price of oil...
