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We are now starting to get some of the details of the #Iran-#Saudi normalisation deal, thanks to this excellent report from @WSJ. Some important take-aways:
(A brief analytical thread 🧵)
#china #IranAndSaudiArabia
wsj.com/articles/china…
(A brief analytical thread 🧵)
#china #IranAndSaudiArabia
wsj.com/articles/china…
1.The report confirms that much of this was the culmination of a regional peace process: years of negotiations and both sides agreeing it was in their best interests. China entered late, as the train was pulling out, but…
2.Chinese diplomacy did play a larger role than it has in previous attempts to get involved in regional politics. Significantly, China agreed to allow Iran to access some frozen funds. This was less likely incentive and more likely the price Iran asked to hand China this win.
Both sides of the Gulf (& larger MENA) deserve a normal, peaceful, & (dare I say) prosperous region. Many are breathing a sigh of relief w/ today’s official Iran-Saudi agreement. All 3 parties to the deal can claim victory, but Saudis are arguably the biggest winner. Why? A 🧵
1. A rapprochement was imminent given the last 2 yrs of talks in Iraq & Oman. So that’s not the surprise - China is! It scores a point against the US in their great power competition, stepping beyond its usual economic & arguably transactional, or at most, short-term arrangements
1 cont.) Iran & now KSA are willing to give China that role. But let’s not beat the bushes on what it means for US standing in KSA & the GCC. No Chinese mediation - or any diplomatic involvement - will threaten US primacy in the region. All states, Iran included, know that.
