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Joseph Bahout باحوط
@jobahout
The failed assassination attempt vs #IraqiPM #Kadhimi calls for several observations:
• 1st contextual element: Recent Iraqi elections were clear setback for #Iran (w/out really strengthening the PM’s own constituency; while strengthening #Muqtada_Sadr, a volatile actor).
(1)
(2)
 • This has triggered 2 opposite effects:
- need for #Iran & #PMF to reassert control & preeminence on #Iraqi scene (by use of violence among other means).
- (vs) temptation by rivals (mainly #Gulf) to (over?)read setback as a net advantage in their favor.
(3)
 • 2nd contextual element:
- Stalling of #Saudi/#Iran talks (#Yemen setback?), w clear #Gulf stiffening (#Lebanon?) as bargaining posture.
- soon new round of Iran/#US talks, w Vienna process becoming in final decisive phase.
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Related hashtags

#Saudi #Khadimi #Iraq #Muqtada_Sadr #Gulf #IraqiPM #Kadhimi #Iran #Qadhimi #Yemen #PMF #Iraqi #US #Qassem_Suleimani #Lebanon

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