Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ism
Most recents (14)
Since the recent event with arguably the largest echo was the #FOMC decision, it's called - what else- "The Pause That Refreshes"
1/n
#FRB
#FederalReserve
1/n
#FRB
#FederalReserve
The first thing to notice is that goods prices have broadly stabilised and volumes are fairly flat - in other words, #NGDP has ceased its torrid pace of increase. Service prices are still elevated but #payroll cost increase is slowing.
2/n
2/n
The #ISM #PMI showed an uptick but is still below 50 which implies that revenue growth is NOT about to accelerate again. Again, slower #inflation & flatline volume = an end to the boom, but not yet a bust.
3/n
3/n
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @steve_sedgwick for the chat on #SquawkBox this morning!
Short and sweet today, but I hope it was of some interest. The notes I put together ahead of time will follow in this thread...
1/x
Short and sweet today, but I hope it was of some interest. The notes I put together ahead of time will follow in this thread...
1/x
First of all, it's #ValentinesDay and SOMEONE is going to get massacred today when the #CPI is released, so naturally:-
2/x
2/x
Roses are red, violets are blue,
JayPow doesn't know
And neither do you.
#inflation's effects are not as universal as they were, but does that mean we can all now relax?
3/x
JayPow doesn't know
And neither do you.
#inflation's effects are not as universal as they were, but does that mean we can all now relax?
3/x
Here's a thread of (6) charts 📊 that are worth nothing from this last week's @MorganStanley Global Investment Committee (GIC) Weekly Report (01/30/23)... 🧵/👇🏼
#macro #economy #earnings #stocks #StockMarket #bonds
morganstanley.com/pub/content/da…
#macro #economy #earnings #stocks #StockMarket #bonds
morganstanley.com/pub/content/da…
1/🧵 "In the short run, flows, sentiment, positioning & technicals can be powerful drivers, while over the longer term, fundamentals like growth, profitability & productivity are critical, as are earnings surprises." @MorganStanley
#macro #earnings #stocks #StockMarket #bonds
#macro #earnings #stocks #StockMarket #bonds
2/🧵 "But sometimes, & for extended periods, markets can settle on one particular thesis, no matter how narrow or implausible." 📊h/t @MorganStanley @GoldmanSachs $MS $GS @Bloomberg
#macro #earnings #stocks #StockMarket #bonds $SPY $SPX
#macro #earnings #stocks #StockMarket #bonds $SPY $SPX
Hello Friday and the week to date
$USD +1.51%
$GOLD +0.82%
$GBP -1.49%
$TLT +3.74%
$HYG +1.14%
$TNX -1.52%
$DAX +3.68%
$SSEC +2.23%
$NIKK -0.46%
$SPX -0.81%
#Bitcoin +1.37%
$COPPER +0.26%
$SILVER -2.58%
$WTIC -8.22%
$NATGAS -16.78%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
$USD +1.51%
$GOLD +0.82%
$GBP -1.49%
$TLT +3.74%
$HYG +1.14%
$TNX -1.52%
$DAX +3.68%
$SSEC +2.23%
$NIKK -0.46%
$SPX -0.81%
#Bitcoin +1.37%
$COPPER +0.26%
$SILVER -2.58%
$WTIC -8.22%
$NATGAS -16.78%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
#ADP private payrolls rose to +230,000 in December.
The initial response in the bond market was to push both the short and long end higher
Realizing job strength = FOMC higher for longer = eventual recession, the long end recovered with the big lower high in $TNX intact.
The initial response in the bond market was to push both the short and long end higher
Realizing job strength = FOMC higher for longer = eventual recession, the long end recovered with the big lower high in $TNX intact.
Asia finished the week mostly ↗️
$NIKK 25974 +0.6%
$SSEC 3158 +0.1%
$TWII 14373 +0.5%
$HSI 20992 -0.3% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2290 +1.1%
$IDX 6685 +0.45%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7110 +0.65%
India ↘️
$BSE 59900 -0.75%
$NIKK 25974 +0.6%
$SSEC 3158 +0.1%
$TWII 14373 +0.5%
$HSI 20992 -0.3% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2290 +1.1%
$IDX 6685 +0.45%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7110 +0.65%
India ↘️
$BSE 59900 -0.75%
Wondering what history tells us about @federalreserve 🏦 tightening vs. loosening 💵cycles? If so, you're not alone! Here's a thread that breaks down the data 📊, #interestrates pause/pivot, & more... 🧵/👇🏼
#StockMarket #FederalReserve @LizAnnSonders
#StockMarket #FederalReserve @LizAnnSonders
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.
Monthly market analysis Oct 31, 2022
#StockMarket #DowJones best month since 1976
Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
Monthly market analysis Oct 31, 2022
#StockMarket #DowJones best month since 1976
Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After technical oversold and very negative sentiment in Sep month, #StockMarket was finally able to reverse direction this month. $DJIA had the best month since 1976 (+14%). $NDX was underperformed (5%) compared to $SPX (8.8%), $RUT(11%).
2. Let's look at US 10Y #Bond Yield price action. It was very volatile and tested 4.3% Jun'08 high before reversing -9.8% to the end of the month. This month it finished up 5.7%. RSI did not make new high at Oct 21 when it reached peak 4.33% (bearish reversal)
#StockMarket
#StockMarket
The #Fed #pivot talk has intensified lately.
Sth possibly breaking in the #UK, European financial system ( $CS, $DB...), #RBA pivoting by hiking less than expected, higher financial risk in the #US...
Should the #Fed #pivot and why?
Let's demystify all this.
A thread.
1/25
Sth possibly breaking in the #UK, European financial system ( $CS, $DB...), #RBA pivoting by hiking less than expected, higher financial risk in the #US...
Should the #Fed #pivot and why?
Let's demystify all this.
A thread.
1/25
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.
Monthly market analysis Sep 30, 2022
#StockMarket Worst week, worst month, and worst quarter of the year since Financial crisis and dot-com bubble. Why it happened?
Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
Monthly market analysis Sep 30, 2022
#StockMarket Worst week, worst month, and worst quarter of the year since Financial crisis and dot-com bubble. Why it happened?
Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After making reversal at H/S neckline in early Aug, US 10Y Yield #bond broke out from Feb'11 high 3.73% and have held up strongly for about a week. This month, yield has gone up +20%, bad for risk and long duration assets
#StockMarket
#StockMarket
2. US 02Y Yield #bond broke out resistance 3.7% and past 4% strongly after Fed Reserve hawkish announcement and never look back. This month yield has gone up more than +22%
#StockMarket
#StockMarket
What is going on in the #treasury market? 10 year treasury just hit 1.13%. Yet my fair value model has it at 1.75% (incorporates Copper/Gold and other ratios - r2 of 90%+) #bonds #yields #YieldCurve
Yet, the #ISM Manufacturing PMI is still in a highly expansionary state at 59.1
Thanks to @steve_sedgwick & @cnbcKaren for having me on #CNBC #SquawkBox this AM.
What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!
I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
1/n
#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE
What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!
I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
1/n
#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE
Are people in denial or is the #centralbank money flood just drowning all the signals?
2/n
#inflation
2/n
#inflation
#Commodities, #freight, #carbon - and a whole lot besides - sure do cost a lot more, these days.
3/n
3/n
The sheer magnitude of the moves in many #economic #data points in recent months has overshadowed the nuances of those reports. For instance, the June @ism non-manufacturing index came in at 57.1 yesterday, a record 11.7-point gain and 7.1 points greater than expectations.
And when we look at the #ISM survey report of #commodity prices and what’s in short supply, there are many items that aren’t surprising: cleaning products, disinfectants and hand sanitizer are all up in #price and in short #supply.
Much more interesting, however, is the fact that #labor for #construction and subcontractors is back to being cited as in short #supply…
2023: NIGERIAN YOUTHS, WHAT STRUCTURAL CHANGE ARE YOU DEMANDING FROM YOUR RULING ELITE?
ATT: @YeleSowore @adeyanjudeji @AriyoAristotle @MrFixNigeria @Omojuwa @RealSolaKuti @seunokin @seunonigbinde @elnathan_john @henryshield @gentleojay @AishaYesufu @DemolaRewaju @AbdulMahmud01
ATT: @YeleSowore @adeyanjudeji @AriyoAristotle @MrFixNigeria @Omojuwa @RealSolaKuti @seunokin @seunonigbinde @elnathan_john @henryshield @gentleojay @AishaYesufu @DemolaRewaju @AbdulMahmud01
ATT: @HAHayatu @DokunOjomo @OgbeniDipo @Ezeakachidozie @ose_anenih @NekkaSmith @bebs730 @GhenhisKhan @iykimo @cbngov_akin1 @GenevieveNnaji1 @DOlusegun @gbengasesan @abati1990 @olushola_shola @YemieFash @segalink @Tutsy22 @ChidiOdinkalu @osita_chidoka @MoghaluKingsley @obyezeks
2/ It's less than 38 MONTHS to another election cycle and change of leadership baton in Nigeria. At the time of this THREAD (Monday, February 17, 2020), Nigerians, particularly, the youths, comprising a 51.1% of 84million Registered Voters, seem to be still sleeping.
"Slightly lower rate of incoming orders may be seasonal or a sign of a general slowdown. Monitoring closely." (Fabricated Metal Products)
"Incoming sales seem to be slowing down, and this is usually our busiest season. Concerns about the economy and tariffs." (Furniture & Related Products)
ABD satın alma yöneticileri endeksi #ISM #PMI Ekim 2016’dan beri en düşük seviyesine gerilemiş olsa da 51,7 olarak açıklandı; yani (>50) genişleme yavaşlasa da sürüyor. ABD-Çin ticaret geriliminin tırmanmayacağı, Hürmüz boğazında savaş çıkmayacağı da anlaşılıyor.
19 Haziran’daki FOMC toplantısından beri yönü aşağı doğru olan 10 yıllık tahvil getirisi 2,04’ü test ediyor. USD endeksi #DXY 10 gün sonra yeniden 96,85’te. EURUSD 1,13’ün, XAU $1.390’ın altına gevşedi.
Henüz kesin bir yargıya varmak için erken, istihdam raporunu bekleyelim.
Henüz kesin bir yargıya varmak için erken, istihdam raporunu bekleyelim.
İstihdam verisi zayıf gelirse, Temmuz sonuna kadar bu yalancı bahar havası, bu euphoria devam edebilir. Bununla birlikte er ya da geç, gerçeklerle yüzleşmek gerekecek, unutmayalım.
