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#BLS #NFP Distracted Jobs Day to you.
Hard to pay attention with what is going on abroad.
Fed's move is known, and constrained by market reaction to the above.
A glance will be had at wage and income growth.
Headline number will likely underperform consensus.
But no one will care
Hard to pay attention with what is going on abroad.
Fed's move is known, and constrained by market reaction to the above.
A glance will be had at wage and income growth.
Headline number will likely underperform consensus.
But no one will care
Here we go:
Non farm payrolls up by 678,000
Private sector 654,000
Unemployment 3.8%
Boy was I wrong. More to come.
Hourly wages were flat though!
Non farm payrolls up by 678,000
Private sector 654,000
Unemployment 3.8%
Boy was I wrong. More to come.
Hourly wages were flat though!
OK, there was a BIG catch-up in all the low-wage/low-hours jobs we had been missing for months. Over 360,000 jobs restored in retail, leisure and hospitality, education and healthcare and administrative and waste alone. This is why aggregate hourly wage growth was only a penny.>>
Good Jobs Day everyone. Today we see if the slow pace of reduction in continuing (not initial) extended and supplemented unemployment claims is again reflected in the #BLS data for June. Estimates for job growth of ~600K private and ~700K total sound reasonable, but its dicey.
If we get a big jump in jobs, we should see a slump in wages as most of the jobs seeking worker are low-wage/low-hours jobs. And they are not likely the type to draw in people off the bench from either the unemployed OR those who have left the labor force:
nytimes.com/2021/06/01/opi…
nytimes.com/2021/06/01/opi…
#BLS Non-farm payrolls rise by 850,000
The U-3 unemployment rate remains at 5.9%
The U-3 unemployment rate remains at 5.9%
Good Jobs Day morning! Hopefully we will see a renewed acceleration in the restoration of jobs during May. But after we dissect the data at 8:30am EDT. the remaining question will be which sectors still have not returned to prepandemic employment levels?
Answer: Mostly low income
Answer: Mostly low income
We know that the re-employment gap is mostly in the low income sectors (below) because there are many workers receiving unemployment benefits exceeding incomes from their old jobs.
What we don't know is whether all their old jobs are really still there!
nytimes.com/2021/06/01/opi…
What we don't know is whether all their old jobs are really still there!
nytimes.com/2021/06/01/opi…
With the above as prologue, stay tuned for the data in 5 minutes....
MARCH 12th - keep that date in mind this morning. We will have lots to talk about regarding the #BLS employment situation report at 8:30am EDT. But remember that the test date for "jobs day" data is the 12th of the month being reported. And March 12 was before the lock downs.>>
>>Consequently, today's Non-farm Payroll data won't come anywhere near reflecting the reality of the #COVID19 pandemic impact.
Nevertheless, will be back at 8:30 and expect to see a material, if early, loss of front line low-wage/low-hours - see why, here: jobqualityindex.com
Nevertheless, will be back at 8:30 and expect to see a material, if early, loss of front line low-wage/low-hours - see why, here: jobqualityindex.com
