Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #justtheflu

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Key question for anyone thinking about the economic consequences of #COVID19 :

For how long will the current (almost complete) shutdown of the economy have to last?

Just 1-2 months? 6 months? A year? Even longer?
Nobody knows for sure, but recent studies give some hope. /Thread
Obviously, the longer the shutdown will go on, the deeper the recession, and the harder the design of policies to insure workers and firms.

Also the acceptance in the general public will evaporate over time, because not all agree with it and are willing & able to bear the costs.
Take Germany as an example: schools are closed and are scheduled to re-open on April 19. This closure was controversial, because it keeps many adults away from work.

For now, most people seem to accept it. But this will change if the "exit day" is pushed into the gray future. /3
Read 15 tweets
#JustTheFlu ⁉️😳LARRY KUDLOW needs to be tested for #coronavirus now 👇
🤔Last week Kudlow said this about #coronavirus tax cuts: “frankly, short-term fixes never work. You know, these temporary tax cuts or rebates and things of that sort. You look at the history—I mean I’ve lived with this for decades—they just never work.”
Larry Kudlow 4 days ago... and now👇#JustTheFlu ⁉️
Read 3 tweets
In case it's still not obvious to some #justtheflu bros, the biggest concern for #COVID19 is probably not the fatality rate, it is how quickly a flood of new severe cases could completely overwhelm our healthcare system, as what has happened in Wuhan, Daegu and Lombardy now. /1
Horrific data points out of Lombardy, Italy

9~10% #COVID19 cases in intensive care unit…


10% of doctors and nurses can't work because they tested positive for #coronavirus
apnews.com/837274f1bab9af…
In Daegu, 2,300 people were waiting for hospital bed, several died at home waiting
reuters.com/article/us-hea…

U.S. has much lower hospital beds # per capita than South Korea and relies on rapid turnover, now may face a potential surge of #COVID19 pts need to be hospitalized for wks
Read 3 tweets
Should be the biggest story out there. The world's 2nd largest economy, the factory of the world, has millions on lockdown due to a deadly virus.

But here's the NYT homepage. Virus coverage *is* there, but below the fold. Wrong priority.

It's not #justtheflu
Yeah, I get it. Iowa and impeachment. But for the folks who pride themselves on serious, eat-your-vegetables news, this is it.

I'm a little surprised at how much this has been downplayed. To be clear, the coverage is there, it's just not emphasized relative to its importance.
You can't criticize the Chinese government for downplaying news of the virus while downplaying news of the virus.

Because we're seeing that dynamic in the US. The attention-allocating system of the US only seems to work once it's already a crisis, not beforehand.
Read 4 tweets
Think someone is lying to you?

First check to see if they bothered to add any variability whatsoever in the model they are using to supposedly report actual numbers from a complex system.

#coronavirus
The mortality rate they want you to report is the - 0 day rate: Today's Confirmed Death total minus Today's Confirmed Case total.

This has not varied outside of 1/10th of 1% in the last 5 prints.

#coronavirus
But even a minor adjustment of a few days in the mortality rate paints an entirely different picture

#coronavirus

Read 386 tweets

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