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[#CentralAmerica #ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNOW update THREAD (ongoing coverage - initiated October 2 - storms #Julia #Karl]
With #Karl now dissapated the next disturbance has now been designated by @NHC_Atlantic.
With #Karl now dissapated the next disturbance has now been designated by @NHC_Atlantic.
The situation remains complex and unpredictable with many significant variables at play which could alter the outcome. The latest complete GFS run shows the next hurricane landfalling in Mexico 24 Oct. & remnants forming into a Gulf cyclone on 26 Oct.
#ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNOW update THREAD (ongoing coverage)
While Tropical Storm #Karl is finished, the #ExtremeWeather event associated with #HurricaneJulia and #TSKarl is not yet over.
While Tropical Storm #Karl is finished, the #ExtremeWeather event associated with #HurricaneJulia and #TSKarl is not yet over.
In the animation above you can see the end of #TSKarl #Karl as it, like its parent storm #HurricaneJulia was pushed through the Tehuantepec wind gap into the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Pacific.
This animation pics up the story over southern Mexico's Pacific coast this afternoon and evening and shows several convective bursts over land. The one at the end on the bottom left hand side is directly over Acapulco.
#CentralAmerica #ExtremeWeather update thread.
Sunrise over #Karl is imminent. Its going to be another interesting day I think.
Sunrise over #Karl is imminent. Its going to be another interesting day I think.
1. Sunrise on Karl, it may be a trick of the early light but I can see a larger low level circulation that fully surrounds the 2nd larger part of Karl.
2. The second image says where we are supposed to be now in the model timeline and it certainly looks about right.
2. The second image says where we are supposed to be now in the model timeline and it certainly looks about right.
[#NotYetAHurricaneKarl update Thread, waiting for sunrise ed. #ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNow ]
The ridge to the north of #Karl has moved south a fair bit and appears to be pushing #Karl to the south at the eastern edge of the offical NHC Track cone.
The ridge to the north of #Karl has moved south a fair bit and appears to be pushing #Karl to the south at the eastern edge of the offical NHC Track cone.
Here's another view where you can see the leading edge of the ridge that is pushing down on the hurricane capturing it near the entrance to the Tucanpecer's northern funnel.
Lookingclose at the last four hours @NHC_Atlantic may have a point about #NotYetAHurricane #Karl not quite yet being a hurricane - as predicted by the GFS it has collapsed and broadened out close to midnight as the models said.
And now, finally, @NHC_Atlantic has put up a new advisory on #TSKarl #HurricaneKarl
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL...
Current satellite imagery shows why NHC thinks Karl will also be pushed through the Tehuantepecer wind gap for a 2nd time - its all a matter of timing. Karl is already clearly outside their cone, the railway lines show where a ridge is building as dry air pushes south.
You can see the scenario in the latest GFS model here. But bear in mind that this is based on the assumption that Karl is still a tropical storm. And as you can see it is expected to decay very rapidly over night.
This IR satelllite image [src: @TropicalTidbits] shows #TSKarl is unquestionably now #HurricaneKarl. It also shows it is not moving towards the Mexico coast line as per the current @NHC_Atlantic forecast - but moving NE. And the transformation into this was 3 hours ago.
Here are its first three hours as a hurricane.
Alas it appears the shear has moved south following #Karl and it is already pulling the center apart, or at least tipping it over.
There is something very unusual (to me) in this #HurricaneKarl set up, sitting over southern Mexico - a small high pressure vortex, I didn't know something like this was possible.
Could this be artifact of the Tehuantepecer event. No wonder the #99E system is not developing.
Could this be artifact of the Tehuantepecer event. No wonder the #99E system is not developing.
Very very weird #Karl.
This has to be the most spectacular cyclone genesis ever! The remnants of #HurricaneJulia become (what is most likely) #HurricaneKarl.
Close up view of the last six hours. It looks as if the #TSKarl (soon to be #HurricaneKarl reversed direction again and is heading back north into the shear, and soon the night. It will be interesting to see whether it continues to strengthen and survives the night.
This is a truly extraordinary storm. One for the history books. The role of the separated southern storm (the other part of #HurricaneJulia's remnants cut in half by the Tehuantepecer now over the Pacific which was feeding Karl in making this possible deserves closer examination.
[#HurricaneJulia remnants #extremeweather update - ongoing story.]
As expected #TSKarl #Invest93L is being torn apart wind shear over the gulf of Mexico and the Pacific (southern) part of this storm complex is moving rapidly away to the east.
As expected #TSKarl #Invest93L is being torn apart wind shear over the gulf of Mexico and the Pacific (southern) part of this storm complex is moving rapidly away to the east.
The diurnal (night and day) solar energy cycle is playing a big part here so we will need to see what happens whe the sun comes up - a fight back is possible.
However model guidance is consistent that TS #Karl will be blown apart by shear and high pressure moving south.
However model guidance is consistent that TS #Karl will be blown apart by shear and high pressure moving south.
This morning's latest GFS PWAT run shows how this is expected to unfold.
