Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #kinematics
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On Mar 24, we had ~800 #COVID deaths in the US. On Apr 4, when the count was at ~8,000, I predicted ~20,000 deaths by Easter Sunday, Apr 12.
My prediction was spot on. Current tally is 20,600.
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My prediction was spot on. Current tally is 20,600.
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In this PEDAGOGICAL thread, I will explain how I came up with this number. This thread is not meant for systems experts.
I became interested in, and very concerned about, the spread of #coronavirus since January 2020, when I saw the initial datasets from #Wuhan.
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I became interested in, and very concerned about, the spread of #coronavirus since January 2020, when I saw the initial datasets from #Wuhan.
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I am an applied mathematician, and I specialize in modeling dynamic systems, besides other things. I am not an epidemiologist, but the spread of infectious diseases are governed by the same mathematical rules that govern dynamical systems in general.
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