Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #krisonomics
Most recents (24)
DEBT CEILING
okay, here's how DC works.
thread
1/
okay, here's how DC works.
thread
1/
We are talking about the largest empire in the history of the world, the United States of America. Such empires don't function on "last minute deals". Everything is decided upon on consensus way in advance.
2/
2/
DC politics, is 95% performance acting, and 5% Consensus Politics behind closed doors.
In 2011, McConnell and Biden had made the deal weeks in advance, but the Performance Show went to the last minutes, even causing S&P to drop USA from Triple A to AA+ rating.
3/
In 2011, McConnell and Biden had made the deal weeks in advance, but the Performance Show went to the last minutes, even causing S&P to drop USA from Triple A to AA+ rating.
3/
Silicon Valley Bank - Bail in
........................
Thread
SVB was deep into financing Chinese CCP tech money in USA, hence it was shut down.
1/
........................
Thread
SVB was deep into financing Chinese CCP tech money in USA, hence it was shut down.
1/
This is quite similar to bailing in the Bank of Cyprus in 2013.
Russian money was seized in the same way that Chinese money is seized with SVB bail in.
It's a bail in, not a bail out.
FDIC definition of bail in is using existing money to pay creditors first in line.
2/
Russian money was seized in the same way that Chinese money is seized with SVB bail in.
It's a bail in, not a bail out.
FDIC definition of bail in is using existing money to pay creditors first in line.
2/
Bail out would be like with AIG and Goodman Sachs in 2009.
Federal Reserve created fresh money to bail out AIG so Goldman Sachs could get paid and avoid collapse. GS is still insolvent, but that is a separate topic.
3/
Federal Reserve created fresh money to bail out AIG so Goldman Sachs could get paid and avoid collapse. GS is still insolvent, but that is a separate topic.
3/
Thoughts from last night so I don't forget them (that was the point of joining twitter anyway, and still is):
Taleb @nntaleb brilliantly noted at Universa event that this is the age of maximum free speech the world is experiencing in its entire history.
Shockingly true.
2/
Taleb @nntaleb brilliantly noted at Universa event that this is the age of maximum free speech the world is experiencing in its entire history.
Shockingly true.
2/
I'd expand on that saying that Liberalism in itself is designed via trial and error to have internal enemies in order to remain antifragile.
You can and may be pro Russia and pro China in the West, but you aren't allowed to be pro west in Russia and China.
2/
You can and may be pro Russia and pro China in the West, but you aren't allowed to be pro west in Russia and China.
2/
You are allowed to say or fantasize or actually reveal all kinds of things about COVID in the West, but not in China.
Actually, the debate about COVID in the west is cooked and funded from Beijing and Moscow.
3/
Actually, the debate about COVID in the west is cooked and funded from Beijing and Moscow.
3/
Let me explain this again, to El Erian, who has customers he gets paid to advise.
3 words
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
1/
zerohedge.com/markets/el-eri…
3 words
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
1/
zerohedge.com/markets/el-eri…
The argument now is that 6-7% rates will "crash the economy".
That is UNTRUE as far as Production.
That is TRUE as far as the INSOLVENT OWNERS OF SUPPLY CHAINS who gambled their companies as collateral in shadow banking WILL CRASH.
2/
That is UNTRUE as far as Production.
That is TRUE as far as the INSOLVENT OWNERS OF SUPPLY CHAINS who gambled their companies as collateral in shadow banking WILL CRASH.
2/
But, NOTHING will happen to the MEANS OF PRODUCTION.
Factories WILL NOT CLOSE.
NEW SOLVENT OWNERS will buy means of production with cents on dollars.
These new owners shall NOT have any debt. They will just PRODUCE at a profit, owing no debt.
3/
Factories WILL NOT CLOSE.
NEW SOLVENT OWNERS will buy means of production with cents on dollars.
These new owners shall NOT have any debt. They will just PRODUCE at a profit, owing no debt.
3/
Supply chains and Marriage
Through the perspective of supply chains, Church taking control of marriage and family makes sense entirely.
Also, Prophet Muhammad was a genius.
Patriarchy makes sense entirely, and it was to defend ....women.
1/
Through the perspective of supply chains, Church taking control of marriage and family makes sense entirely.
Also, Prophet Muhammad was a genius.
Patriarchy makes sense entirely, and it was to defend ....women.
1/
Prophet Muhammad saying up to 4 wives was due to excess women because of wars when men would spend time and/or die. Excess Women would end up as slaves or prostitutes or die of hunger.
Constituting marriage with up to 4 wives solved that societal and supply chain problem.
2/
Constituting marriage with up to 4 wives solved that societal and supply chain problem.
2/
The Christian Church, if we see it through a supply chain perspective, marriage was sanctified and taken control of in order to elevate women to be as much equal to men as possible.
Patriarchy as a system defended women, if we see it through supply chain eyes.
3/
Patriarchy as a system defended women, if we see it through supply chain eyes.
3/
Finance
Folks, folks, folks.
Finance is just Law, nothing else.
You need cash flow to prosper, meaning you need real output to prosper.
Cash flow = Real Ouput
In Soviet Union anybody had a home. In Greece anybody owns a home. In Romania, Albania, the same.
1/2
Folks, folks, folks.
Finance is just Law, nothing else.
You need cash flow to prosper, meaning you need real output to prosper.
Cash flow = Real Ouput
In Soviet Union anybody had a home. In Greece anybody owns a home. In Romania, Albania, the same.
1/2
But, Soviet union, Greece now, Romania and Albania have little real output, hence little cash flow.
Greeks understood that in 2012 Greek financial crisis. They had homes, but they had no cash flow.
Folks, homes are not edible, neither can be used as fuel.
2/3
Greeks understood that in 2012 Greek financial crisis. They had homes, but they had no cash flow.
Folks, homes are not edible, neither can be used as fuel.
2/3
Folks, you need Production or Imports to maintain prosperity, nothing else.
Finance is just Law, it's just digits on computers which can be changed instantly.
And that is why I keep insisting to Matt @matthewstoller that entitlements will be cut inevitably.
3/4
Finance is just Law, it's just digits on computers which can be changed instantly.
And that is why I keep insisting to Matt @matthewstoller that entitlements will be cut inevitably.
3/4
INTEREST RATES
From Volcker to Powell:
Powell will hike rates to 10%, but he doesn't know it yet.
Why?
Because this is a trial and error process.
Volcker didn't know either that he would be raising rates to 20%.
1/
From Volcker to Powell:
Powell will hike rates to 10%, but he doesn't know it yet.
Why?
Because this is a trial and error process.
Volcker didn't know either that he would be raising rates to 20%.
1/
Volcker was faced with one problem and one problem only:
PRODUCTION
DC and Volcker LEARNED by trial and error process over Time and Space that they had to hike rates to 20% in order to expand PRODUCTION.
2/
PRODUCTION
DC and Volcker LEARNED by trial and error process over Time and Space that they had to hike rates to 20% in order to expand PRODUCTION.
2/
Same thing now.
DC and Powell are having one problem and one problem only:
PRODUCTION
And they are learning via Trial and Error in Time and Space that the first and foremost thing to do is HIKE RATES.
Powell/DC will keep hiking rates until PRODUCTION stabilizes.
3/
DC and Powell are having one problem and one problem only:
PRODUCTION
And they are learning via Trial and Error in Time and Space that the first and foremost thing to do is HIKE RATES.
Powell/DC will keep hiking rates until PRODUCTION stabilizes.
3/
INTEREST RATES BOOST PRODUCTION
tradingeconomics.com/united-states/…
Look at the graph of US interest rates.
Can you spot the most prosperous and productive period of history since the 70s?
1/
tradingeconomics.com/united-states/…
Look at the graph of US interest rates.
Can you spot the most prosperous and productive period of history since the 70s?
1/
The most productive period in US history post WW2 was when rates were 20%, US kept thriving when rates were kept above 5%.
But why?
Why do high rates spur production?
2/
But why?
Why do high rates spur production?
2/
Simple, folks.
You DO NOT have to borrow money to start a business.
To reiterate, YOU DO NOT HAVE TO BORROW MONEY TO START A BUSINESS, when rates are above 5% permanently.
3/
You DO NOT have to borrow money to start a business.
To reiterate, YOU DO NOT HAVE TO BORROW MONEY TO START A BUSINESS, when rates are above 5% permanently.
3/
ASSET PRICES
The media focus is still on ASSET PRICES.
Folks, asset prices no longer matter.
The only things that matter now are 3:
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
Asset prices are now irrelevant.
1/
The media focus is still on ASSET PRICES.
Folks, asset prices no longer matter.
The only things that matter now are 3:
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
Asset prices are now irrelevant.
1/
Stocks, Bonds, Housing prices, NOBODY CARES, nobody.
I remember speaking with DC insiders in 2015-2018, asking them about concern on supply chains.
Their reply was: NONE. They trust the Bankers.
2/
I remember speaking with DC insiders in 2015-2018, asking them about concern on supply chains.
Their reply was: NONE. They trust the Bankers.
2/
Things have changed.
Pentagon openly is saying they were wrong on trusting finance, they were wrong on disregarding supply chains, and the only that matters now according to pentagon is
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
3/
Pentagon openly is saying they were wrong on trusting finance, they were wrong on disregarding supply chains, and the only that matters now according to pentagon is
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
3/
FROM USD TO BARTER
I am saying that the world is trying to replace USD with BARTER.
This is self evident. They are declaring it, everybody is declaring it.
1/
I am saying that the world is trying to replace USD with BARTER.
This is self evident. They are declaring it, everybody is declaring it.
1/
Am I saying that they will succeed at the very end?
NO, THEY WILL FAIL.
What I am saying that SAYING AND TRYING is more than enough to break supply chains, which is happening.
2/
NO, THEY WILL FAIL.
What I am saying that SAYING AND TRYING is more than enough to break supply chains, which is happening.
2/
Seeing that the world is shifting from SAYING TO TRYING, Washington DC now has woken up to the fact that supply chains are breaking down, because they own supply chain has already broken down.
IT IS TANGIBLE FOR THE PENTAGON NOW.
3/
IT IS TANGIBLE FOR THE PENTAGON NOW.
3/
COMMODITY BOOM
Folks, let me explain something to you.
First, thanks to @nntaleb , after reading Incerto, I have forced myself to think always in a NON linear way.
PLEASE, STOP THINKING IN A LINEAR WAY.
1/
Folks, let me explain something to you.
First, thanks to @nntaleb , after reading Incerto, I have forced myself to think always in a NON linear way.
PLEASE, STOP THINKING IN A LINEAR WAY.
1/
So, what does commodity boom mean?
It means that commodity prices shoot high, too high. That sounds good if you think in a linear way.
Now, let's think how it works in reality, NON LINEAR.
2/
It means that commodity prices shoot high, too high. That sounds good if you think in a linear way.
Now, let's think how it works in reality, NON LINEAR.
2/
Commodity boom = Very High Commodity prices = Very high Shortage of Commodities = break down of supply chains = economic collapse.
THIS IS NON LINEAR THINKING.
Commodity Boom NEVER happens, never ever.
3/
THIS IS NON LINEAR THINKING.
Commodity Boom NEVER happens, never ever.
3/
Okay, thread about Catholicism vs Protestantism
1/
1/
Catholicism vs Protestantism conflict is essentially a SUPPLY CHAIN WAR.
Let me repeat:
Catholicism vs Protestantism conflict is a SUPPLY CHAIN WAR.
2/
Let me repeat:
Catholicism vs Protestantism conflict is a SUPPLY CHAIN WAR.
2/
The Supply Chain War was brewing between German Nationalist Elite vs Italian Nationalist Elite.
Elitarian Nationalism started in the 12th century as a result of the mutual disagreements between the German controlled Pope of Rome and Contantintople New Rome.
3/
Elitarian Nationalism started in the 12th century as a result of the mutual disagreements between the German controlled Pope of Rome and Contantintople New Rome.
3/
Okay, American Identity
thread
1/
thread
1/
America is a COMMERCIAL UNION.
No such thing as American Identity.
People don't understand America, even Americans don't understand America.
Americans don't understand America, because they don't care.
2/
No such thing as American Identity.
People don't understand America, even Americans don't understand America.
Americans don't understand America, because they don't care.
2/
Americans don't live in America. Americans live in their local communities. Americans wouldn't care less about America, they care about their communities.
3/
3/
Okay, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates.
Why Elon is a shaky billionaire?
1/
Why Elon is a shaky billionaire?
1/
It all comes down to understanding POWER AND WEALTH.
Power and Wealth comes from owning REAL ASSETS that the economy cannot do without.
Or, by becoming what the great Peter Thiel calls, "To become a monopoly.".
2/
Power and Wealth comes from owning REAL ASSETS that the economy cannot do without.
Or, by becoming what the great Peter Thiel calls, "To become a monopoly.".
2/
Let's see Buffett and Koch Brothers.
They know quite well that MONEY does NOT exist.
To reiterate, you ought to be ultra wealthy to understand that MONEY DOES NOT EXIST.
Only COLLATERAL EXISTS.
Money is just a note on a piece of paper of computer that you have collateral.
3/
They know quite well that MONEY does NOT exist.
To reiterate, you ought to be ultra wealthy to understand that MONEY DOES NOT EXIST.
Only COLLATERAL EXISTS.
Money is just a note on a piece of paper of computer that you have collateral.
3/
INVERTED YIELD CURVE
Inverted yield curve, whereby longer dated bonds have lower yields than shorter dated bonds, means .........ABSOLUTELY NOTHING as far as the real economy.
1/
Inverted yield curve, whereby longer dated bonds have lower yields than shorter dated bonds, means .........ABSOLUTELY NOTHING as far as the real economy.
1/
Treasury trading is controlled by a small group of people who trade large money, maybe 100 people globally.
The yield of a 30 year US treasury issued today, is the EXPECTED yield of the treasuries that these few people expect to be in ......30 years when held at maturity.
2/3
The yield of a 30 year US treasury issued today, is the EXPECTED yield of the treasuries that these few people expect to be in ......30 years when held at maturity.
2/3
You got to be kidding me.
There exist people who can foresee what is going to happen in 30 years?
Folks, it's a joke. It's smoke and mirrors.
The inverted yield curve means NOTHING for real as far as predicting the economy, NOTHING.
3/3
#krisonomics
There exist people who can foresee what is going to happen in 30 years?
Folks, it's a joke. It's smoke and mirrors.
The inverted yield curve means NOTHING for real as far as predicting the economy, NOTHING.
3/3
#krisonomics
We are at Stage 3.
Periods of "stability" will emerge as the governments do mandatory redistribution of scarcer output via handing out money to the poor, taxing the middle class and raising minimum wage.
2/
Periods of "stability" will emerge as the governments do mandatory redistribution of scarcer output via handing out money to the poor, taxing the middle class and raising minimum wage.
2/
The redistribution period will last 10-15 years, until Pentagon manages to readjust supply chains out of China and Russia.
That is why we are currently on WW3, which I call #SupplyChainWar
It's a war to reconfigure supply chains.
3/
That is why we are currently on WW3, which I call #SupplyChainWar
It's a war to reconfigure supply chains.
3/
Zoltan Poszar
I said I would do a rebuttal of Poszar analyses and predictions.
I have it ready now and it's just a couple of tweets.
Zoltan's analysis and diagnosis is correct.
Zoltan's predictions are wrong.
1/
I said I would do a rebuttal of Poszar analyses and predictions.
I have it ready now and it's just a couple of tweets.
Zoltan's analysis and diagnosis is correct.
Zoltan's predictions are wrong.
1/
Zoltan says in essence that this is a war economy, where commodities are money.
What he means that commodities are currently being used to settle trade globally.
2/
What he means that commodities are currently being used to settle trade globally.
2/
Per my sources, it is true. Ships laden with copper, oil, iron ore, etc, are moving across the oceans to settle trade, avoiding USD. So, Zoltan has access to such knowledge.
Zoltan proceeds to say that the New Order will be multilateralism where commodities are money.
3/
Zoltan proceeds to say that the New Order will be multilateralism where commodities are money.
3/
Japanese Yen, Swiss National Bank, Norway sovereign fund etc. ....and US Stock Market.
1/ thread
1/ thread
It was Eric Hunsader, the famed High Frequency Trading whistleblower who revealed that in July-August 2011 something had happened.
It was called HFT, High Frequency Trading. It had taken over 90% of stock market trading.
2/
It was called HFT, High Frequency Trading. It had taken over 90% of stock market trading.
2/
Eric went on demonstrating that humans were no longer trading. He received whistleblower payment for that by the SEC.
Later on over the years I learned that Chicago Futures Exchange was linked to Tokyo Stock Exchange via an HFT cable, running 22 milliseconds one way trades.
3/
Later on over the years I learned that Chicago Futures Exchange was linked to Tokyo Stock Exchange via an HFT cable, running 22 milliseconds one way trades.
3/
United Kingdom
Thread
1/
Thread
1/
Folks, folks, folks.
Libertarian economics is when supply chains function properly, when suppliers supply everything in time or on time.
In that case Conservatives or Centrists come to power, who cut taxes and libertarian stuff like that.
2/
Libertarian economics is when supply chains function properly, when suppliers supply everything in time or on time.
In that case Conservatives or Centrists come to power, who cut taxes and libertarian stuff like that.
2/
Dear friends.
We are now in Soviet territory. Supply chains have broken down.
What the situation requires is people who can do Redistribution.
Left and Center Left are the party qualified for this kind of job.
3/
We are now in Soviet territory. Supply chains have broken down.
What the situation requires is people who can do Redistribution.
Left and Center Left are the party qualified for this kind of job.
3/
BORIS THE CLUELESS
It seems that Boris the Clueless will run again to come back as Britain's PM.
THREAD
1/
It seems that Boris the Clueless will run again to come back as Britain's PM.
THREAD
1/
I was literally THE ONLY ONE insisting that Hard Brexit imposed by Boris the Clueless would send Britain's economy down the drain.
Why?
Because, I looked at supply chains.
I insisted and insisted, and got called dumb and stupid.
2/
Why?
Because, I looked at supply chains.
I insisted and insisted, and got called dumb and stupid.
2/
I never do predictions, never.
I only do PROPHECY, the Hebrew Style.
You know, as per my Hebrew (turned Christian orthodox) Professor during 1st and only year of Orthodox Masters in Toronto, Canada, explained to us what Prophecy meant in the Torah.
3/
I only do PROPHECY, the Hebrew Style.
You know, as per my Hebrew (turned Christian orthodox) Professor during 1st and only year of Orthodox Masters in Toronto, Canada, explained to us what Prophecy meant in the Torah.
3/
DEMAND DESTRUCTION FAKERY
There is no such thing as demand destruction, it's a fantasy invented by bankers, who pretend to be experts on supply chains, while they have 0 clue about supply chains.
1/
There is no such thing as demand destruction, it's a fantasy invented by bankers, who pretend to be experts on supply chains, while they have 0 clue about supply chains.
1/
What happens is that Suppliers have X cost.
In order to survive they must sell at a profit:
Profit = Revenue - Cost.
When Bankers say there is no demand, the suppliers say that they can't sell goods below cost.
2/
In order to survive they must sell at a profit:
Profit = Revenue - Cost.
When Bankers say there is no demand, the suppliers say that they can't sell goods below cost.
2/
20 years as Technical Sales Engineer I never ever experienced any demand destruction for our output and never heard anybody supplying goods and services saying there is no demand for goods and services.
3/
3/
Okay, thread about Production vs Distribution vs Redistribution
1/
1/
An Economy has 3 Stages:
Production
Distribution
Redistribution
1/
Production
Distribution
Redistribution
1/
An Economy produces and consumes OUTPUT PER HOUR.
To reiterate:
An economy produces and consumes OUTPUT PER HOUR.
Not just Output, it's output/hr.
To reiterate again
An economy produces and consumes OUTPUT PER HOUR.
Not just Output, it's output/hr.
2/
To reiterate:
An economy produces and consumes OUTPUT PER HOUR.
Not just Output, it's output/hr.
To reiterate again
An economy produces and consumes OUTPUT PER HOUR.
Not just Output, it's output/hr.
2/
JOBS IN ONTARIO, CANADA
It's been 2 weeks I've done a research for myself and for you as well, since I love you all.
I went through job postings on indeed.ca and linked-in Canada and actually applied for jobs, in order to view the next stage information.
1/
It's been 2 weeks I've done a research for myself and for you as well, since I love you all.
I went through job postings on indeed.ca and linked-in Canada and actually applied for jobs, in order to view the next stage information.
1/
I have as well spoken with people here in Tirana, Albania about jobs. Media is inundated with unfilled jobs narrative, and one can easily see job offered signed on Tirana storefronts.
I went through njoftime.com jobsite, the largest in Albania.
2/
I went through njoftime.com jobsite, the largest in Albania.
2/
Conclusions:
1) Hundreds of thousands unfilled jobs narrative is true and untrue at the same time, both in Ontario, Canada and in Tirana, Albania.
2) Well paid jobs were adequately offered in Ontario, but for each job there were 100+ applicants.
Whereas in Tirana, 0.
2/
1) Hundreds of thousands unfilled jobs narrative is true and untrue at the same time, both in Ontario, Canada and in Tirana, Albania.
2) Well paid jobs were adequately offered in Ontario, but for each job there were 100+ applicants.
Whereas in Tirana, 0.
2/
SUPPLY VS DEMAND
Economic practice based on what a pedophile like John Maynard Keynes has become a religious dogma, a cult.
1/
Economic practice based on what a pedophile like John Maynard Keynes has become a religious dogma, a cult.
1/
Pedophile Keynes has established a whole religious cult on his name now, called Government Spending.
Lenin put that in practice with Gosbank for a whole empire.
2/
Lenin put that in practice with Gosbank for a whole empire.
2/
The Religious Dogma from the pedophile Keynes was to just type up digits on people's accounts, and boooom suppliers would produce goods and services.
This is Pure Leninism, Pure Bolshevism.
It does work, until all suppliers stop producing.
3/
This is Pure Leninism, Pure Bolshevism.
It does work, until all suppliers stop producing.
3/
