PKR/USD🧵

Since hitting its peak of 276.6 the PKR has appreciated 4.6% against the USD.

Interestingly the REER as measured by JP MORGAN is near its all time lows of 83.2 against the 3 year average of 98.

1/4

#PakistanEconomicCrisis #PakistanEconomy #KSE100

Fundamentally the PKR seems undervalued which shows how acute the current liquidity crisis is with FX reserves exhausted at USD 3.0 billion.

The long term REER range indicates sharp reactions at 110 (depreciation) and 90 (appreciation).

2/4

Inflation differentials with our trading partners (US - 6.4% & China - 2.1%) will see a rapid rise in the REER if the nominal rate stabilizes here.

Ball park if you assume REER stability at 95, 🇵🇰 CPI to average 25%, then you should target a parity of ~280 by year end.

3/4

Read 4 tweets

Abdul Rehman

@AbdulRehman0292

How to Invest in IPPs (Power Sector) 💰💰💰

1)Understand the PPA (Power Purchase Agreement)

2)Never Ever Look at GP Margins %%

3)Build Late Payments into your Valuation

4)Keep an Eye on Disputes between IPPs and Power Purchaser

🧶🧶 Thread 🧶🧶

#PSX #KSE100 #IPPs

PPA is the Holy Grail to value an IPP. Most Important aspects include

➡️Total Project Cost

➡️%age of Equity in Total Cost

➡️ Return on Equity

1/20

There are two main components in payments to an IPP

Capacity Payments 👉🏼 Majorly includes Return on Equity and Repayment of Debt

Variable Costs 👉🏼 Majorly include Fuel Costs (Coal, Gas etc) and Maintenance costs

2/20

Read 22 tweets

Capital Stake

@CapitalStake

@business

Pakistan’s Budget Isn’t Enough to Unlock IMF Loan, Citi Says - @business
#Pakistan’s plan to trim its #deficit by slashing spending may not be enough to convince the International Monetary Fund to resume its loan program, according to economists at Citigroup Inc.

#economy

The tax-to-GDP ratio is budgeted to rise to 9.2% of gross domestic product in the year starting July 1 from 8.6%, which seems low versus Pakistan’s emerging market peers and its own history. Interest payments are estimated to consume about 44% of revenue.

#Pakistan #KSE100

Details: cutt.ly/LJ2IhdB

#Pakistan #economy #IMF #Budget2023 #Budget

Read 3 tweets

Abdul Rehman

@AbdulRehman0292

Many Cement companies down 50% from Highs of last year, now is a good time to review this Cyclical Industry for future Investments

♦️"Cement cannot Travel"

♦️Coal and Power usage 👉🏻 Low Cost producers

♦️Use Cyclicality to your advantage

🧶 Thread 🧶

#Cement #KSE100 #PSX

Cement is a very low value Commodity ($40-$50/Ton) and cannot absorb Road Freight Charges of $30(South to North). Plants are setup in proximity of Demand Centers

It is vital to Bifurcate North and South players. Local Sales, Exports of both regions should never be combined

1/17

Cement Industry is competitive and has invested in Cost efficiency measures like Captive Power & Waste Heat Recovery

Low cost of production & high Freight (Cement cannot Travel) protects the Industry from Foreign competition

2/17

Read 19 tweets

Umar Jatoi

@UmarJatoi10

In March, 2005, #KSE100 dropped ~30% in a matter of two weeks. There were allegations of gross manipulation by brokers, and a taskforce constituted to probe the matter discovered many manipulative practices, some still relevant today, which I thought I would detail here in a🧵

2/ KSE100 went from 10,500 on 16th march to 7,500 on 16th April, 2005. Media,and protestors infront of KSE office,started demanding inquiry into the huge and sudden drop. Under public pressure,SECP set up a Taskforce on 12-04-2005 to investigate the developments in #StockMarket.

3/ Context was that KSE100 had experienced a steady bull run from 2002 to 2004. This was because interest rates had come down from 13% to 7%; there was increased liquidity due to higher remittances; corporate performance was improving;

Read 45 tweets

Capital Stake

@CapitalStake

@GOPunjabPK

The @GOPunjabPK recently announced Provincial Budget with total estimate of revenues as Rs 2,240.63bn & expenditure as Rs2115.63bn. A thread on major highlights of the budget.
A total of Rs 336.5bn was allocated for School Education Department.
#Pakistan #economy #Punjab

The Health Care Department was allocated Rs 134 bn by the #Punjab Government.

#Pakistan #Budget2021 #PunjabBudget2020 #CoronaBudget

Irrigation Department received 45bn out of the total #Budget .

#Pakistan #Budget2021 #economy #PunjabBudget2020

Read 7 tweets

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