Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #labormarkets
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A week ago, after hearing #ChairPowell’s testimony before Congress, all eyes were set to be on today’s #inflation data, which presumably would help market participants better understand the #FOMC’s policy reaction at its March 22nd meeting.
What a difference a week makes these days! Of course, all eyes are still on today’s data, but now there are many other things we need to consider (such as #FinancialStability concerns), when judging the reaction function of the @federalreserve.
As we have long contended, #markets tend to be fairly myopic and lacking in patience, so having to focus on more than one news item at a time causes tremendous #uncertainty and thus greater market #volatility.
Earlier this week the @federalreserve raised #policy rates at an extraordinary 75 basis point increment (its fourth time doing so this year), in an attempt to moderate excessively high levels of #inflation.
Still, if the central bankers were hoping to see signs of slowing in the persistently solid #LaborMarkets, as an indicator that policies were slowing growth and in turn #inflation, they may be somewhat disheartened by today’s data.
Indeed, nonfarm #payrolls increased by 261k jobs in Oct, with private employment rising an average of 262k/month over the past three months, which does not yet imply that the slowing that policymakers believe we’ll need to see to tame #inflation has arrived.
As we approach the @federalreserve’s monetary policy conference at #JacksonHole this week, a question we’ve been asking ourselves is whether the abundance of survey-based, and goods-oriented, #economic data may be overstating the weakness in the #economy as a whole?
Without question, many broad-based surveys, including those focused on #ConsumerConfidence and small #business optimism, are painting a very bleak picture of the #economic trajectory. 
And at the same time, many goods/manufacturing sector data points are portending continued significant weakening of the sector.
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 04/16/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/04/16/dai…
Statistical rethinking with brms, ggplot2, and the tidyverse: Second edition
bookdown.org/content/4857/
#BayesianRegressionModels #statistics #tidyverse #OrdinalModelPlots
bookdown.org/content/4857/
#BayesianRegressionModels #statistics #tidyverse #OrdinalModelPlots
Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
doxa.substack.com/p/why-a-chines…
#china #taiwan #MilitaryConflict #consequences
doxa.substack.com/p/why-a-chines…
#china #taiwan #MilitaryConflict #consequences
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/18/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/01/18/dai…
Millions Flock to Telegram and Signal as Fears Grow Over Big Tech
nytimes.com/2021/01/13/tec…
#privacy #CommunicationPlatforms #MessagingServices #encryption
nytimes.com/2021/01/13/tec…
#privacy #CommunicationPlatforms #MessagingServices #encryption
