Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #laplace

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In his 1814 book "A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities" in which he formulates the classical interpretation of probability and the principle of indifference, Pierre Simon marquis de Laplace has also got a chapter on the role of probabilities in court decisions. Image
In another chapter (Des illusions dans l'estimation des Probabilités) he refers to probability illusions. Almost 2 centuries prior to Kahneman and Tversky! #Laplace Image
Here #Laplace describes the gambler's fallacy Image
Read 7 tweets
Aunque dependerá de si son rencorosas como dice @aalvaros 😅, la respuesta canónica es 25 (la probabilidad de que una gallina no sea picada es 0.25, el 25%, y al haber 100 gallinas 25 se salvan). Veamos dos formas de justificarlo
Una gallina dada no será picada si la de su izquierda pica a la izquierda (probabilidad 50%) y, además, la gallina de su derecha pica a la derecha (probabilidad 50%). La probabilidad conjunta es el producto de ambas: 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25. Es como sacar dos caras al tirar dos monedas Image
Otra forma de verlo es usando la regla de #Laplace: casos favorables divididos por casos posibles. Los casos posibles son cuatro: 1) pica|pica, 3) no pica|pica, 3) pica|no pica, 4) no pica|no pica. Como el único favorable es el cuarto, la probabilidad es 1/4 = 0.25 Image
Read 4 tweets

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