Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #leave

Most recents (24)

Narcissistic abuse is all pervasive, across all areas, affects all involved with a #narcissist. It involves a wide variety of manipulative tactics, is longstanding, highly abusive, coercive, sophisticated, subtle, of long duration, highly controlling, utilzes #narcissistic agents
It is used overtly or covertly by the narcissist or their 'agents'. It is designed to attack your independence, autonomy, to #control you, to break you down because it makes them feel better, period!#Gaslighting works under the guise of caring about you. It is designed to
Get you to deny your own #reality. This is. It loving. Many other manipulative tactics are involved. They are also not loving or kind. A narcissist recruits an entire community to do it's dirty work for him/her. The Narcissitic agents are also part of the problem. It is usually
Read 23 tweets
Today is the 5th year anniversary of the 2016 EU referendum vote in which the UK had narrowly voted to #Leave the European Union. Unlike Trump, the impact is permanent and already caused notable damage. Here is a 🧵 of 🧵 with some past work and deliberations on #Brexit... 1/...
In one of the first papers we asked "Who voted for #Brexit?". The paper is a systematic correlational analysis of what is common to #Leave support across districts and within cities & we also show that a #Brexit model can predict LePen voting. Link: goo.gl/VzBo57 2/
Similarly, we augment the analysis using individual level data. This helps tackle whether correlational district level evidence is due to ecological fallacy. Open access at @ejprjournal goo.gl/sPzzwf 3/
Read 12 tweets
After 5 years investigating #Kremlin influence in the US, and talking with many experts including @Billbrowder @anders_aslund @MarkWarner, @Natalia_Budaeva @vkaramurza, it’s clear the US was targeted by some of the same people, & money sources that led to #Brexit.
It’s a complex architecture, but there is a definite link. If you look at the people who funded the #Leave campaign who’ve been closely associated with efforts in the US to foment discontent in the political parties, conspiracy theories and; how so many people minimal means...
Made it to #DC to participate in the #CapitolRiot on Jan. 6th, and you follow the money and idea trail, it takes you back to a some of the same people.
Read 4 tweets
Someone needs to tell #Brexit #Leave people:
* our English language is Germanic
* 80% of English words come from 350 languages
* our numbers are Hindu-Arabic via the Muslim world
* our alphabet is Latin

Send them all back home?

dictionary.com/e/borrowed-wor…
English language is
* 29% Latin
* 29% French
* 26% Germanic
* 16% Other

It originates entirely from outside the British Isles.

The original "British language" survives as Welsh.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_l…
Mathematics - the bedrock of western science - was built by the Chinese & Indians well before the Greeks, Persians & Arabs got involved.

“Algebra“ comes from Arabic al-Jabr.

“Algorithm” is Latinised name of Persian mathematician “al-Khwarizmi”.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_…
Read 3 tweets
Happy to see my new paper "Measuring the Regional Economic Costs of #Brexit: Evidence up to 2019" feature in @FinancialTimes. For interactive map ➡️ brexitcost.org, the FT article ➡️ ft.com/content/90e988…, the paper ➡️ bit.ly/2C9BOIg a short summary ⬇️ 1...
We use the synthetic control method previously used by @JohnSpringford @bornecon @MSchularick studying #Brexit-vote economic impact on the UK as a whole, just that we study regional economic output. The UK wide exercise is published in the @EJ_RES bit.ly/3j2zt2V 2...
We apply (a lot of variations) on regional quarterly GDP as well as annual district-level Gross-value added data for the UK. In total, for districts we construct a total of 100+ synthetic control estimates to assess concerns of overfitting - below plot is the case of Lewisham 3..
Read 10 tweets
DAY 2 of the #InDivEU Mid-Term Conference is about to get underway! Today we have 2 panels:

1⃣ Effects of #DifferentiatedIntegration
2⃣ External #Differentiation

As yesterday, we'll be keeping you updated by live-tweeting all our expert contributions from Team #InDivEU💪
The Chair of our first panel, Wojciech Gagatek from @UniWarszawski, has just opened up proceedings 💪

/1
Ioannis Vergioglou from @ETH_en is taking us through the methodology and framework of the first paper of the day: "Effects of #DifferentiatedIntegration on EU Institutional Trust"

/2
Read 35 tweets
Altijd leuk als mensen een #thread maken over hun ideeën.
@PietLekkerkerk maakte een thread over de #EU-standpunten van #FvD omdat hij vindt dat deze standpunten onzinnig zijn.
Hier👇zijn thread en mijn antwoord.
#Draad!
1/31
Piet vraagt (tweet 3👇) naar de onderbouwing voor 2 beweringen van #FvD:

-dat de EU ons miljarden kost
-dat economieën in Zuid-Europa kapot gaan door de #EU

Eerst gaan we kijken naar de miljarden.
2/31
Piet stelt dat het ‘maar’ 1 miljard per jaar is.
Zijn linkje werkt niet meer, dus ik heb zelf even gegoogeld en kwam hier terecht.
Volgens de EU zelf👇 betaalde NL in 2017 bijna 2 miljard meer dan het ontving.
3/31
europa.eu/european-union…
Read 32 tweets
He voted #Leave and now his business might go under and he might lose his house.
“I didn’t really think about it,” he says.
Coronavirus lockdown in China & HK:

a foretaste of what a No Deal Brexit would look like.

Don't mention the WALL!

independent.co.uk/news/world/ame…
Read 3 tweets
How many #Leave voters will sign up for #EU Associate Membership ... once they see the cold, hard realities of #Brexit do not live up to the fantasies they have been sold?

Will they accept having fewer privilieges than those who do sign up for it?
Image
Hold them to account. Hold their feet to the fire of their own words.

Read 3 tweets
🇬🇧🗳️ Résultats presque définitifs des élections au #RoyaumeUni :

Conservateurs 43,6% (+1,2) / 363 élus (+47)
Travaillistes 32,2% (-7,8) / 203 élus (-59)
LibDems 11,5% (+4,2) / 11 élus (-1)
SNP 3,9% (+0,8) / 48 élus (+13)
🇬🇧🗳️ En termes de voix, c'est la meilleure performance des conservateurs depuis 1979.
🇬🇧🗳️ La principale évolution d'un point de vue électoral, c'est l'effondrement des travaillistes dont l'électorat est parti de tous les côtés :

➡️partis pro-#Remain (LibDems, Verts, SNP, PC)
➡️partis pro-#Leave (Brexit Party, Conservateurs)
➡️abstention
Read 23 tweets
I want to share a new paper. Its relevant to #GE2019. The findings are quite exemplary of the misguidedness of much of economic & social policy under the #ConservativeParty. It should be a harbinger to wary voters: there is more of the same under the Tories & with #Brexit. 1/..
The short summary: the reform to housing benefit from 2011 onwards was intended to save the public purse hundreds of millions. But quite the reverse happened: not only did it create huge amounts of misery and agony, it also ended up not saving the public much money at all. 2/..
What happened? From April 2011 onwards, local housing allowance was massively cut from covering up to the median level of rents, to only cover up to the 30th percentile of market rents. Here is a map of how this affected households in terms of expected losses per week. 3/..
Read 17 tweets
FEAR1/8
In this excellent #LSE article a last look at #Projectfear before #GE2019

No projections because we can now look backwards. Short summary 👇 credit to LSE.

1️⃣ You're individually £2868 worse off just due to the #Brexit created sterling crash X number of family members
FEAR2/8
2️⃣ + £1700 per household worse from slow GDP growth, if you don't think you are it's because you're relatively affluent and haven't felt⏬

3️⃣ #Brexflation adds 2.9% to cost of total food and clothes, or £870 a year a household. Far more than any VAT changes could negate
FEAR3/8
4️⃣ Brexiters told you a cheaper £ helps exports.
Not.
No one is really independent in an interconnected world, component import cost has wiped out any #Brexit export gain.

Children in the 1970s knew printing money wasn't a solution. Yet tories sold it to 42% of us again
Read 8 tweets
So why I think the #GE2019 is really not done yet. A short thread. The summary: I think a hung parliament is still a very likely and a desirable outcome for the UK. I first present some evidence on the former, and then my view on the desirability on the latter. #Brexit
1. Most opinion polls now point to a #Cons maj, including yesterday's @YouGov MRP. MRP is great in the tool box, but still relies on raw polling data. Here, bit.ly/2q0iSFW, I argue here that YouGov samples for BES do appear structurally different and potentially biased
2. Opinion polls are still mostly conducted at national level, ignoring constituency-level factors. My PhD student @EleAla shows that in UK, turnout tends to be systematically lower the "safer" a seat is. And this effect is increasing in the poll national lead of the incumbent..
Read 18 tweets
I've written about #Brexit since 2015 #FBPE, mostly in threads to go deeper than Twitter otherwise allows.

Typically I give a pic summary, with a thread of evidence. Trust nothing without source material. Use, bookmark or share what I do - it's made for you.

Let's #StopBrexit.
The main Tread runs continuously, off links are topics.

Thread 1. "Opposing The Brexits is a Democratic Obligation".

The original 2016 Brexit is lost. And with it any democratic consent. #StoptheCoup is accurate. It is a Coup.

Thread 2. "A Return to the EEC"

So could there have been a compromise between #Remain and #Leave that left the UK better off?

This thread was the culmination of about a year's work to find one.

Not easy. Not perfect. But far far better than Boris.

Read 10 tweets
Hard factual headlines will follow this one:

"Tories have maxed up UK state debt by 2.5 times in just 9 and half years!" This is unprecedented in peacetime!

1/15
"Despite #Tory #Lies to the contrary? UK #economy is flat on its back, and likely to fall further - GDP was just 0.1% in the 6 months to 30sep19 being our worst showing since the financial crash!"

2/15
GDP(Gross Domestic Product) = total output of UK #economy, on which vital tax-take depends. HMG needs our tax (from companies, employees, householders) to fund OUR public services. Flat GDP growth (low % uplift) means less capability to fund services on which we depend!

3/15
Read 16 tweets
#Brexit's 'nightmare alley' from 100 miles high. A 'house of horrors' story with a happy ending? But only if we vote for an end to the 'biggest heist in history'! 1/
Cameron launched his cunning plan (Bruges 2013) which only half worked? Spoiler! A cautionary tale, never to be followed! being nothing to do with improved welfare for the vast majority of Brits. 2/
Cam's plan was to kill off the Tories' @LibDems coalition partner, by secretly shafting them, while 'doing for' UKIP with the same bullet! Only the first bit worked? 3/
Read 21 tweets
Just days away from a #GE2019 which will shape UK for many generations to come!

Some incontrovertible facts:

1/ UK GDP% growth has stalled, at just 0.1% over the 6 months to 30sep19 (so, virtually flat-lining). This is the worst 1/2 year performance since the financial crash.
2/ Three plus years on from the disastrous #EURef, we now KNOW that destabilising Russian influence/cash was a material factor in driving the #Leave Vote. So, #RussiaReport MUST be released BEFORE we vote again in #GE2019.
3/ Russian agents also freely KILL (when directed & funded to do so) on the streets of Britain, so let's not readily 'pooh pooh' their ambition & reach to destabilise both the #UK & #EU.
Read 17 tweets
#GE2019 #GeneralElection2019

Are you still #undecided?
Are you thinking of voting #LibDem? Think very hard: your vote may get you a very bad #Brexit.
You want to #Remain & that's why you're voting #LibDem?
But the #LibDems can't #RevokeArticle50 unless they win the election. In 2017 they won 12 seats. They need 326 MPs to win. How many do they need to claim a mandate to #Revoke?
Maybe the #LibDems can form a minority government?
Could a minority government #RevokeArticle50? Even for that the #LibDems would need at least 200 seats. And what other parties would they then need for success? The #SNP might vote to #RevokeArticle50, but would they be enough?
Read 12 tweets
On my way to Berlin for the launch of @ForumNewEconomy. I ll be talking about "Why #Brexit votes happen: An evaluation of the impact of #austerity".
Unfortuantely, there is much more I would like to say... but can't within 10 minutes. So here is what's missing out...
In the run up to 2016 #EURef, the UK was actually slowly and gradually becoming more pro European if you believe 30 @EurobarometerEU studies since 2000.
The 2016 #EURef is culmination of political developments with UK's electoral system playing a crucial role. Here a short thread why & how #austerity induced voter shifts affected election dynamics, pushing Cameron into holding #Brexit referendum:
Read 8 tweets
48. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria
#RegimeChange #FakeNews #FalseFlag #terrorism #SyriaInvasion #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstHumanity
1 to 20. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1136642…
21 to 40. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1164175…
Read 501 tweets
Tensions increase in Lebanese city as protesters clash with Harakat Amal supporters: video aml.ink/GfhJ7
"#Hezbollah leader Hassan #Nasrallah has signaled his readiness to support the current #Lebanese govt amid the ongoing protests in the capital Beirut. In a televised speech, Nasrallah said that he would back the govt,“but with a new agenda & a new spirit”
aml.ink/VHBBY
"The #Turkish-backed militants launched a surprise attack on the #SyrianArmy’s defenses near the #Syrian-#Turkish border today in a bid to advance to the Tal Tamr District of Al-Hasakah."
aml.ink/22K22
Read 495 tweets
There is no compromise for #remain in this brexit deal. For MPs who think it will bring people together once again they are indulging in sheer fantasy. The compromise is between a hard brexit and a slightly less hard brexit, all being harder than Mays WA which was pretty hard.
The people who have yapped on for 3 years about EEA Norway etc have completely wasted their breath. As soon as Mays red lines were drawn this option was out of the picture. If labour MPs think this deal is right they are doing a great disservice to the country.
The biggest Pro EU movement in Europe is not going to disband if brexit is imposed without at the very least a chance for people to have a voice at the ballot box ON. THE DEAL. #Leave have completely ignored #remainers concerns for 3 years.
Read 5 tweets
Thread:

I'm delighted that so much attention is now being paid to the issue of financial speculators and disaster capitalists making money out of #NoDeal. It's been frustrating to see so little attention being paid to this in Brexit debate. 1/
This is of course due to Rachel Johnson and Philip Hammond bringing it to the public awareness.
The BBC's Andrew Neil negates the idea by stating there's no evidence to support the claim. Financial markets and the news narratives they produce are always speculative... 2/
Since when do economists have to produce evidence to make future projections?
There are however clues. This is Christopher Chandler. He runs a company called Legatum Ltd. He made his fortune by travelling the world finding areas of political instability...3/
Read 7 tweets
#OpportunityCost is the aggregate net cost of doing something, vis a vis 'not doing it' at all.

The initial project, option & prospect of #Brexit came with huge opportunity costs, which were too easily pre-discounted as #ProjectFear. 1/
The initial #Leave case, dramatised by the #BorisBus, contended that UK could save its £350m pw #EU 'gross membership contribution' and pass that 'saving' straight to the #NHS - as 'additional funding'. 2/
The #Leave case focused on saving UK's #EU gross membership cost in favour of #NHS.

It ignored regular #EU annual contributions back into a multiplicity of UK projects, which would obviously be stopped, if we ceased membership.
3/
Read 34 tweets

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