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1/7
Day 4 & 5 of #RWRI17
▪️Losses from a series of mediocristan risk events are highly predictable, given that they are IID (car accidents). The extremistan risks are catastrophes that cascade into even more risky events. Their aggregate losses are difficult to evaluate.
Day 4 & 5 of #RWRI17
▪️Losses from a series of mediocristan risk events are highly predictable, given that they are IID (car accidents). The extremistan risks are catastrophes that cascade into even more risky events. Their aggregate losses are difficult to evaluate.
2/7
▪️Catastrophic events violate LLN by nonlinearity and dependence, therefore losses cannot be calculated through CLT.
▪️1+a & 1-a. Perturbate your current position by +-a. If you are much better off in the +a position than the loss of -a, you are anti-fragile.
▪️Catastrophic events violate LLN by nonlinearity and dependence, therefore losses cannot be calculated through CLT.
▪️1+a & 1-a. Perturbate your current position by +-a. If you are much better off in the +a position than the loss of -a, you are anti-fragile.
3/7
▪️If the average of your payoffs in the 1+a and 1-a exceeds your current payoff, you are anti-fragile.
▪️antifragility is convexity.
▪️Most papers bullshit with correlation and p-value.
▪️If the average of your payoffs in the 1+a and 1-a exceeds your current payoff, you are anti-fragile.
▪️antifragility is convexity.
▪️Most papers bullshit with correlation and p-value.
