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A THREAD with some thoughts on today's 🇨🇦 Labour Force report. The headline growth in jobs (almost 1 million) was very encouraging, much better than expected. By that measure, we've climbed almost halfway back out of the hole we fell into Feb-April. #cdnecon @CntrFutureWork ..2
But the next steps of job recovery will be much harder to achieve. The share of unemployed expecting to go back to their former jobs is way down (just 1/3 now). And I expect a wave of 2nd-order layoffs as companies permanently downsize because their market isn't coming back..3
Recent examples of that include Bombardier and VIA Rail. The official unemployment rate (12.7%) is still just the tip of the iceberg. Counting people nominally employed but not working, and those who've given up looking, a more realistic measure of unemployment is 21-22%. ..4
