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How good are doctors at diagnosis?
This is the most relevant paper I have written. Not perfect but addresses a huge issue I think could change medicine if acknowledged
…it has changed how I think about diagnosis
ja.ma/3rQNtjv
@JAMAInternalMed
@drjohnm
1/n
This is the most relevant paper I have written. Not perfect but addresses a huge issue I think could change medicine if acknowledged
…it has changed how I think about diagnosis
ja.ma/3rQNtjv
@JAMAInternalMed
@drjohnm
1/n
summary:
Clinicians widely overestimated chance of disease especially after testing
Cardiac ischemia after + ECG—EBM 2-11%, median answer 70%
UTI after + urine cx—EBM 0-8.3%, answer 80%
Breast CA after + mammo—EBM 3-9%, answer 50%
Pneumonia after + CXR EBM 46-65%, answer 95%
Clinicians widely overestimated chance of disease especially after testing
Cardiac ischemia after + ECG—EBM 2-11%, median answer 70%
UTI after + urine cx—EBM 0-8.3%, answer 80%
Breast CA after + mammo—EBM 3-9%, answer 50%
Pneumonia after + CXR EBM 46-65%, answer 95%
Gerd Gigerenzer, David Eddy, @StevenWoloshin @arjunmanrai & others asked how well doctors do at the math of understanding diagnosis, and found they aren’t great.
Many of issues w/ real life tests covered by @deeksj @d_spiegel @dan_diekema
Many of issues w/ real life tests covered by @deeksj @d_spiegel @dan_diekema
