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Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
@mushfiq_econ
#COVID spreads through human-to-human transmission, so #migrants are an important vector. In the absence of adequate covid tests in LMICs, can we predict sub-national COVID spread, or identify likely hotspots using data on migration?

Short answer: Yes.
yrise.yale.edu/using-migratio…
Data on airport returnees predict subsequent quarantines & #COVID19 distress calls across districts in #Bangladesh. Data on migration permits predict confirmed cases in #Philippines municipalities and Bangladeshi sub-districts.
Beyond the validation using public health data, our recent phone surveys across Bangladesh helps to ground-truth this approach:
Living in communities with recent #migrant returnees triples the odds (!) of reporting #COVID symptoms. This is the single largest risk factor.
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#Philippines #migrant #COVID #migrants #LSMS #Bangladesh #zoning #LMIC #reopening #COVID19

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