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#MarketUpdate THREAD

The most organic pump I've seen in years.

This was not a squeeze from derivatives traders but from solid organic buying.
Exhibit A:

A ridiculous amount of coins were scooped up and moved off to individual wallets.
Zooming out, putting this into perspective, it's the largest one day scoop up in this 5-year chart.
Read 10 tweets

This is short term technical analysis instead of my normal fundamentals; be warned short term analysis is much lower reliability, more for casino players.

SUMMARY: I suspect the last CME gap (what's left of it in green) may get filled.
Peering into price action happening at spot exchanges, I'm seeing hidden distribution. There's volume sell off that's not yet reflected in price.

Upper pane is price, lower pane is my own view of what's really happening on spot exchanges.
Then there happens to be this fractal resemblence to a Wyckoffian Distribution (sell-off pattern).
Read 5 tweets

We're seeing a spike in activity by new participants coming into BTC not yet reflected in price, it doesn't happen often. This is what traders call a divergence, in this case it's obviously bullish.

Chart by @glassnode
We're seeing another impulse of coins changing hands completing.

My interpretation is that the last pulse was take profit, halting the downward move; this impulse should be the one that drives us upwards.
The other interpretation is it's an impulse to push us downwards, but that seems unlikely given OBV (an indicator looking at volume movements) is showing quiet accumulation is taking place.
Read 6 tweets

This latest pull back did not come with the usual movement of coins on-chain, the sell-off therefore was fueled from coins on exchanges. Without large volumes of coins moving from wallets I cannot see sufficient sell-side supply to push prices down with much gusto.
It was wise to move to USD over the weekend just on the view that stocks looked very week in its technical setup, which did play out and did pull BTC downwards, but certainly the large swing trades happening with coin movements from wallets is still in bullish mode.
While I've heard talk of bearishness down to even 7k, I don't see fundamentals supporting this as a likely event.

On spot markets (Binance listed below), we have plenty of bids below this level and a liquidity gap above through to 10.8k-11k.
Read 4 tweets
The top community questions for tomorrow’s #mARKetUpdate concern our investment thesis around Invitae ($NVTA).

I’m going to begin attaching my references (🔗) below, as well as some of my previous work, to help lay the groundwork for my thoughts tomorrow.
Please keep in mind that I will not be directly comparing companies or stocks. This is not investment advice.
I’m going to be chipping away at this thread over the course of the evening, and I’ll probably be a little slower once college football starts.
Read 48 tweets
(1/n) •Domestic company corp tax cut from 30% to 22 % percent if
they don't avail any exemptions or incentives from FY20
• Effective tax for these companies rate 25.17 percent inclusive of all
surcharge and cesses. Applicable for current fiscal
(2/n) *listed companies which have announced buyback of shares prior to July 5 will not be charged with super rich tax
*All the measures announced will give relief of 1.45 lakh crores annually
(3/n) *Roll back of enhanced surcharge introduced in Budget on capital gain arising from sale of equity shares in a company liable for STT .
* super-rich tax will not to apply on capital gains from sale of any security including derivatives for FPIs.
Read 15 tweets

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